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The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level with a Bubble

Author

Listed:
  • Markus K. Brunnermeier
  • Sebastian Merkel
  • Yuliy Sannikov

Abstract

This paper incorporates a bubble term in the standard Fiscal Theory of the Price Level equation to explain why countries with persistently negative primary surpluses can have a positively valued currency and low inflation. It also provides two illustrative models with closed-form solutions in which the return on government bonds is below the economy’s growth rate. The government can “mine” the bubble by perpetually rolling over its debt. Despite the bubble, the price level remains determined provided government policy credibly promises primary surpluses off-equilibrium. Sufficient “fiscal space” ensures that the bubble term is attached to government bonds rather than other assets, like crypto assets. The analysis provides a new perspective on debt sustainability analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Markus K. Brunnermeier & Sebastian Merkel & Yuliy Sannikov, 2020. "The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level with a Bubble," CESifo Working Paper Series 8278, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8278
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Marco Bassetto & David S. Miller, 2022. "A Monetary-Fiscal Theory of Sudden Inflations," Staff Report 641, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    2. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Sebastian, Sannikov, Yuliy Merkel & Sebastian Merkel, 2021. "Debt as Safe Asset," CESifo Working Paper Series 9500, CESifo.
    3. Jérôme Creel, 2021. "Establishing a Fiscal Dialogue in Europe," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 63(3), pages 339-355, September.
    4. Jean Barthélemy & Eric Mengus & Guillaume Plantin, 2021. "The Central Bank, the Treasury, or the Market: Which One Determines the Price Level?," Working papers 855, Banque de France.
    5. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Sebastian Merkel & Yuliy Sannikov, 2021. "A Safe-Asset Perspective for an Integrated Policy Framework," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Steven J Davis & Edward S Robinson & Bernard Yeung (ed.), THE ASIAN MONETARY POLICY FORUM Insights for Central Banking, chapter 8, pages 302-332, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Hidekazu Niwa, 2023. "An Expansionary Effect of QE Not via the Signaling Channel," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 43(2), pages 1063-1069.
    7. Zhengyang Jiang & Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Mindy Z. Xiaolan, 2020. "Manufacturing Risk-free Government Debt," NBER Working Papers 27786, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Ly Dai Hung, 2021. "Economic Convergence With Safe Assets," Working Papers hal-03662832, HAL.
    9. Makoto Saito, 2021. "Public Bonds as Money Substitutes at Near-Zero Interest Rates: Disequilibrium Analysis of the Current and Future Japanese Economy," Advances in Japanese Business and Economics, in: Strong Money Demand in Financing War and Peace, pages 79-119, Springer.
    10. Marco Bassetto & Wei Cui, 2020. "A Ramsey Theory of Financial Distortions," Working Papers 775, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    11. Ly Dai Hung, 2022. "Economic Growth and Inflation Tradeoffs within Global Stagflation: Evidence in Vietnam Economy," Working Papers hal-03774248, HAL.
    12. Vadim Elenev & Tim Landvoigt & Patrick J. Shultz & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2021. "Can Monetary Policy Create Fiscal Capacity?," NBER Working Papers 29129, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Pierre L Siklos, 2022. "Monetary, fiscal and demographic interactions in Japan: impact and a comparative assessment," Working Papers halshs-03776217, HAL.
    14. David Staines, 2023. "Stochastic Equilibrium the Lucas Critique and Keynesian Economics," Papers 2312.16214, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    15. Sweder van Wijnbergen & Stan Olijslagers & Nander de Vette, 2020. "Debt sustainability when r - g smaller than 0: no free lunch after all," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 20-079/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    16. van Wijnbergen, Sweder & Olijslagers, Stan & de Vette, Nander, 2020. "Debt sustainability when r - g," CEPR Discussion Papers 15478, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Ly Dai Hung, 2022. "Safe Assets at Financial Globalization," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(03), pages 1-21, October.
    18. Masera, Rainer, 2023. "The Challenges Eurozone Stagflation Poses for Households, Businesses and High-Debt Countries: Some Possible Solutions," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 76(4), pages 547-566.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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