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Explosive Target Balances

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Listed:
  • Niklas Potrafke
  • Markus Reischmann

Abstract

Using the new unit root test by Phillips et al. (2011) we show that the Target balances of the German Bundesbank have been exploding from the beginning of 2009 to the beginning of 2013. By implementing a full-allotment policy and reducing the required minimum quality of collaterals in October 2008, the European Central Bank (ECB) refinanced credits in the GIIPS countries to a large extent. Private capital flowed out of the GIIPS countries (Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal and Spain), and the Target claims of the German Bundesbank increased significantly. If the Eurozone collapses, the German Bundesbank would lose its Target claims. Because the German Bundesbank would certainly request a recapitalization from the German federal government, German government debt might increase.

Suggested Citation

  • Niklas Potrafke & Markus Reischmann, 2013. "Explosive Target Balances," CESifo Working Paper Series 4297, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4297
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stefan Homburg, 2012. "Notes on the Target2 Dispute," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 13(SPECIALIS), pages 50-54, February.
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    3. Hans-Werner Sinn & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2012. "Target loans, current account balances and capital flows: the ECB’s rescue facility," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(4), pages 468-508, August.
    4. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    7. Slavík, Michal & Rodríguez-Vives, Marta & Hartwig Lojsch, Dagmar, 2011. "The size and composition of government debt in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 132, European Central Bank.
    8. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2013. "Target Losses If The Euro Breaks Up – A Response to De Grauwe and Ji," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(01), pages 14-24, January.
    9. Peter C. B. Phillips & Yangru Wu & Jun Yu, 2011. "EXPLOSIVE BEHAVIOR IN THE 1990s NASDAQ: WHEN DID EXUBERANCE ESCALATE ASSET VALUES?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(1), pages 201-226, February.
    10. Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior of U. S. Public Debt and Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963.
    11. De Grauwe, Paul & Ji,Yuemei, 2012. "What Germany should fear most is its own fear: An analysis of Target2 and current account imbalances," CEPS Papers 7280, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    12. Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, 2013. "Target2-Positionen nähern sich (vorerst) wieder an," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 93(4), pages 272-274, April.
    13. Giammarioli, Nicola & Nickel, Christiane & Rother, Philipp & Vidal, Jean-Pierre, 2007. "Assessing fiscal soundness: theory and practice," Occasional Paper Series 56, European Central Bank.
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    16. Hana Polackova Brixi & Allen Schick, 2002. "Government at Risk : Contingent Liabilities and Fiscal Risk," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 15233, December.
    17. Philippine Cour-Thimann, 2013. "CESifo Forum Special Issue April 2013: Target Balances and the Crisis in the Euro Area," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 0(1), pages 05-50, May.
    18. Trehan, Bharat & Walsh, Carl E., 1988. "Common trends, the government's budget constraint, and revenue smoothing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 425-444.
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    22. Nicola Giammarioli & Christiane Nickel & Philipp Rother & Jean-Pierre Vidal, 2007. "Assessing fiscal soundness - Theory and practice," Occasional Paper Series 56, European Central Bank.
    23. Lojsch, Dagmar Hartwig & Rodríguez-Vives, Marta & Slavík, Michal, 2011. "The size and composition of government debt in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 132, European Central Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nicole Storp & Tobias Kordsmeyer, 2019. "Time series analysis of the Deutsche Bundesbank’s Target claims and possible connections to the ECB’s expansionary monetary policy," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(06), pages 26-28, March.
    2. Frank Westermann, 2014. "Discussion of "Target2 and Central Bank Balance Sheets"," IEER Working Papers 99, Institute of Empirical Economic Research, Osnabrueck University.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Eurosystem; Target; recursive unit root test; explosiveness; hidden debt;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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