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Trends and Persistence in the Greenland Ice Sheet Mass

Author

Listed:
  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana
  • Laura Sauci

Abstract

This paper examines trends and persistence in the Greenland ice sheet mass by applying fractional integration methods to a dataset constructed by Mankoff et al. (2020) on ice discharge for seven different regions of Greenland. The adopted empirical framework encompasses a wide range of stochastic processes and is informative about their dynamic and long-run properties. The main finding is that significant changes have occurred in the behaviour of the series of interest in recent years; more specifically, although a deterministic trend is not present, ice discharge in the various regions of Greenland has become a non-stationary, explosive process, with shocks having permanent effects. It appears that, as a result of global warming, the ice mass loss in Greenland has already reached a tipping point and become an irreversible process.

Suggested Citation

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Laura Sauci, 2023. "Trends and Persistence in the Greenland Ice Sheet Mass," CESifo Working Paper Series 10556, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10556
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    2. C. W. J. Granger & Roselyne Joyeux, 1980. "An Introduction To Long‐Memory Time Series Models And Fractional Differencing," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Greenland ice sheet mass; long memory; fractional integration; persistence; trends;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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