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Is Air Pollution Regulation Too Lenient? Evidence from US Offset Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Joseph S. Shapiro
  • Reed Walker

Abstract

This paper describes a framework to estimate the marginal cost of air pollution regulation, then applies it to assess whether a large set of existing U.S. air pollution regulations have marginal benefits exceeding their marginal costs. The approach utilizes an important yet under-explored provision of the Clean Air Act requiring new or expanding plants to pay incumbents in the same or neighboring counties to reduce their pollution emissions. These "offset" regulations create several hundred decentralized, local markets for pollution that differ by pollutant and location. Economic theory and empirical tests suggest these market prices reveal information about the marginal cost of abatement for new or expanding firms. We compare estimates of the marginal benefit of abatement from leading air quality models to offset prices. We find that, for most regions and pollutants, the marginal benefits of pollution abatement exceed mean offset prices more than ten-fold. In at least one market, however, estimated marginal benefits are below offset prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph S. Shapiro & Reed Walker, 2023. "Is Air Pollution Regulation Too Lenient? Evidence from US Offset Markets," Working Papers 23-27, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  • Handle: RePEc:cen:wpaper:23-27
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    File URL: https://www2.census.gov/library/working-papers/2023/adrm/ces/CES-WP-23-27R.pdf
    File Function: Revised version, 2024
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    File URL: https://www2.census.gov/library/working-papers/2023/adrm/ces/CES-WP-23-27.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2023
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    Cited by:

    1. Calel, Raphael & Colmer, Jonathan & Dechezlepretre, Antoine & Glachant, Matthieu, 2021. "Do carbon offsets offset carbon?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 113849, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Bialek, Sylwia & Gregory, Jack & Revesz, Richard L., 2022. "Still your grandfather's boiler: Estimating the effects of the Clean Air Act's grandfathering provisions," Working Papers 05/2022, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    3. Barbara Annicchiarico & Stefano Carattini & Carolyn Fischer & Garth Heutel, 2022. "Business Cycles and Environmental Policy: A Primer," Environmental and Energy Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(1), pages 221-253.
    4. Abdul-Salam, Yakubu & Kemp, Alex & Phimister, Euan, 2022. "Energy transition in the UKCS – Modelling the effects of carbon emission charges on upstream petroleum operations," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    5. Yingfei Mu & Edward A. Rubin & Eric Zou, 2021. "What’s Missing in Environmental (Self-)Monitoring: Evidence from Strategic Shutdowns of Pollution Monitors," NBER Working Papers 28735, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Heath Milsom, Luke & Roland, Isabelle, 2021. "Minimum wages and the China syndrome: causal evidence from US local labor markets," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 113850, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Halem, Zachery M. & Aldy, Joseph E., 2022. "The Evolving Role of Greenhouse Gas Emission Offsets in Combating Climate Change," RFF Working Paper Series 22-17, Resources for the Future.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • Q52 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Pollution Control Adoption and Costs; Distributional Effects; Employment Effects
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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