IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cem/doctra/138.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Extreme Observations and Diversification in Latin American Emerging Equity Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Raúl Susmel

Abstract

In this paper, we focus on the tails of the unconditional distribution of latin American emerging markets stock returns. We explore their implications for portfolio diversification according to the safety first principle, first proposed by Roy (1952). We find that the Latin American emerging markets have significantly fatter tails than industrial markets, especially, the lower tail of the distribution. We consider the implication of the safety first principle for a U.S. investor who creates a diversified portfolio using Latin America stock markets. We find that a U.S. investor gains by adding Latin American equity markets to her purely domestic portfolio. For different parameter specifications, we find a more realistic asset allocation than the one suggested by the literature based on the traditional meanvariance framework.

Suggested Citation

  • Raúl Susmel, 1998. "Extreme Observations and Diversification in Latin American Emerging Equity Markets," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 138, Universidad del CEMA.
  • Handle: RePEc:cem:doctra:138
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ucema.edu.ar/publicaciones/download/documentos/138.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 2003. "Emerging markets finance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 3-56, February.
    2. Loretan, Mico & Phillips, Peter C. B., 1994. "Testing the covariance stationarity of heavy-tailed time series: An overview of the theory with applications to several financial datasets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 211-248, January.
    3. De Santis, Giorgio & imrohoroglu, Selahattin, 1997. "Stock returns and volatility in emerging financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 561-579, August.
    4. Campbell R. Harvey, 1994. "Conditional Asset Allocation in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 4623, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Cho, D Chinhyung & Eun, Cheol S & Senbet, Lemma W, 1986. "International Arbitrage Pricing Theory: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(2), pages 313-329, June.
    6. Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 773-816.
    7. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "Time-Varying World Market Integration," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 403-444, June.
    8. Baillie, Richard T. & DeGennaro, Ramon P., 1990. "Stock Returns and Volatility," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 203-214, June.
    9. Claessens, Stijn & Dasgupta, Susmita & Glen, Jack, 1995. "Return Behavior in Emerging Stock Markets," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 9(1), pages 131-151, January.
    10. McFarland, James W & Pettit, R Richardson & Sung, Sam K, 1982. "The Distribution of Foreign Exchange Price Changes: Trading Day Effects and Risk Measurement," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(3), pages 693-715, June.
    11. Hall, Peter, 1990. "Using the bootstrap to estimate mean squared error and select smoothing parameter in nonparametric problems," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 177-203, February.
    12. Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "The Risk Exposure of Emerging Equity Markets," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 9(1), pages 19-50, January.
    13. Jansen, Dennis W & de Vries, Casper G, 1991. "On the Frequency of Large Stock Returns: Putting Booms and Busts into Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(1), pages 18-24, February.
    14. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 1997. "Emerging equity market volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 29-77, January.
    15. Engle, Robert F & Susmel, Raul, 1993. "Common Volatility in International Equity Markets," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 167-176, April.
    16. Hols, Martien C A B & de Vries, Casper G, 1991. "The Limiting Distribution of Extremal Exchange Rate Returns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(3), pages 287-302, July-Sept.
    17. Arzac, Enrique R. & Bawa, Vijay S., 1977. "Portfolio choice and equilibrium in capital markets with safety-first investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 277-288, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rishma Vedd & Paul Lazarony, 2014. "The Risk-Return Trade-Off Of Investing In Latin American Emerging Stock Markets," Accounting & Taxation, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 6(1), pages 93-104.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Susmel, Raul, 2001. "Extreme observations and diversification in Latin American emerging equity markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(7), pages 971-986, December.
    2. Assaf, A., 2009. "Extreme observations and risk assessment in the equity markets of MENA region: Tail measures and Value-at-Risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 109-116, June.
    3. Assaf, Ata, 2015. "Value-at-Risk analysis in the MENA equity markets: Fat tails and conditional asymmetries in return distributions," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 30-45.
    4. M. Kabir Hassan & Anisul M. Islam & Syed Abul Basher, 2000. "Market Efficiency, Time-Varying Volatility and Equity Returns in Bangladesh Stock Market," Working Papers 2002_6, York University, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2002.
    5. ROCKINGER, Michael & JONDEAU, Eric, 1999. "The Tail Behavior of Stock Returns: Emerging versus Mature Markets," HEC Research Papers Series 668, HEC Paris.
    6. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 1997. "Emerging equity market volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 29-77, January.
    7. Jondeau, Eric & Rockinger, Michael, 2003. "Testing for differences in the tails of stock-market returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(5), pages 559-581, December.
    8. Kabir Hassan, M. & Maroney, Neal C. & Monir El-Sady, Hassan & Telfah, Ahmad, 2003. "Country risk and stock market volatility, predictability, and diversification in the Middle East and Africa," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 63-82, March.
    9. Adler, Michael & Qi, Rong, 2003. "Mexico's integration into the North American capital market," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 91-120, June.
    10. Rua, António & Nunes, Luis C., 2012. "A wavelet-based assessment of market risk: The emerging markets case," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 84-92.
    11. Haque Mahfuzul & Hassan M. Kabir & Maroney Neal C & Sackley William H, 2004. "An Empirical Examination of Stability, Predictability, and Volatility of Middle Eastern and African Emerging Stock Markets," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 18-41, April.
    12. Donadelli, Michael & Prosperi, Lorenzo, 2012. "On the role of liquidity in emerging markets stock prices," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(4), pages 320-348.
    13. A. Assaf, 2007. "Fractional integration in the equity markets of MENA region," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(9), pages 709-723.
    14. Girard, Eric & Rahman, Hamid & Zaher, Tarek, 2003. "On market price of risk in Asian capital markets around the Asian flu," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 241-265.
    15. Haque, Mahfuzul & Kabir Hassan, M. & Varela, Oscar, 2004. "Safety-first portfolio optimization for US investors in emerging global, Asian and Latin American markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 91-116, January.
    16. Umutlu, Mehmet & Akdeniz, Levent & Altay-Salih, Aslihan, 2010. "The degree of financial liberalization and aggregated stock-return volatility in emerging markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 509-521, March.
    17. Teulon, Frédéric & Guesmi, Khaled & Mankai, Selim, 2014. "Regional stock market integration in Singapore: A multivariate analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 217-224.
    18. Kodjovi G. Assoe, 1998. "Regime-Switching in Emerging Stock Market Returns," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 2(2), pages 101-132, June.
    19. van der Hart, Jaap & de Zwart, Gerben & van Dijk, Dick, 2005. "The success of stock selection strategies in emerging markets: Is it risk or behavioral bias?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 238-262, September.
    20. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 2002. "Research in emerging markets finance: looking to the future," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 429-448, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cem:doctra:138. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Valeria Dowding (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cemaaar.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.