IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cbo/wpaper/15469.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Using the Natural Rate Concept to Assess the Consistency of Projections Ten Years Ahead for Real Interest Rates and Inflation: Technical Paper 2004-05

Author

Listed:
  • Angelo Mascaro

Abstract

The concept of the "natural" long-term interest rate, a rate that is determined by the underlying production capability of the economy, provides a way to check the internal consistency of medium-term economic projections. Forecasters who use a neoclassical growth model to project the level of real Gross Domestic Product, as does the Congressional Budget Office, are implicitly projecting the natural rate, because the growth model simulates the production capability of the economy. The assumptions that are embedded in the growth model can be used to

Suggested Citation

  • Angelo Mascaro, 2004. "Using the Natural Rate Concept to Assess the Consistency of Projections Ten Years Ahead for Real Interest Rates and Inflation: Technical Paper 2004-05," Working Papers 15469, Congressional Budget Office.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbo:wpaper:15469
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/108th-congress-2003-2004/workingpaper/2004-5_0.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2003. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1063-1070, November.
    2. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2002. "Robust Monetary Policy Rules with Unknown Natural Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 63-146.
    3. Angelo Mascaro, 2003. "Using the Treasury Nominal and Inflation-Indexed Spread to Estimate Expected Long-Run Changes in the CPI-U under Inflation Uncertainty, Risk Aversion, and the Probability of Deflation: Technical Paper," Working Papers 14933, Congressional Budget Office.
    4. Robert C. Merton, 1975. "An Asymptotic Theory of Growth Under Uncertainty," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 42(3), pages 375-393.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Olivier Basdevant & Nils Björksten & Özer Karagedikli, 2004. "Estimating a time varying neutral real interest rate for New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP 2004/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    2. Jesús Cuaresma & Ernest Gnan & Doris Ritzberger-Gruenwald, 2004. "Searching for the natural rate of interest: a euro area perspective," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 185-204, June.
    3. Marius ACATRINEI & Dan ARMEANU & Carmen Elena DOBROTA, 2018. "Natural Interest Rate for the Romanian Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 104-116, September.
    4. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2007. "Inflation targeting under imperfect knowledge," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-23.
    5. Alexius, Annika & Welz, Peter, 2006. "Can a time-varying equilibrium real interest rate explain the excess sensitivity puzzle?," Working Paper Series 2006:20, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    6. Trehan, Bharat & Wu, Tao, 2007. "Time-varying equilibrium real rates and monetary policy analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1584-1609, May.
    7. Patrick Lünnemann & Abdelaziz Rouabah, 2003. "Règle de Taylor: estimation et interprétation pour la zone euro et pour le Luxembourg," BCL working papers 9, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    8. Mesonnier, Jean-Stephane & Renne, Jean-Paul, 2007. "A time-varying "natural" rate of interest for the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1768-1784, October.
    9. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5221 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Jesús Cuaresma & Ernest Gnan, 2007. "The natural rate of interest: which concept? which estimation method? which policy conclusions?," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 667-688.
    11. Sharon Kozicki, 2004. "How do data revisions affect the evaluation and conduct of monetary policy?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 89(Q I), pages 5-38.
    12. Levin, Andrew T. & Williams, John C., 2003. "Robust monetary policy with competing reference models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 945-975, July.
    13. Loretta J. Mester, 2015. "Comments on “The Equilibrium Real Funds Rate: Past, Present, and Future.”," Speech 61, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    14. Arabinda Basistha & Richard Startz, 2004. "Measuring the NAIRU with Reduced Uncertainty: A Multiple Indicator-Common Component Approach," Working Papers UWEC-2004-22, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    15. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "Historical monetary policy analysis and the Taylor rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 983-1022, July.
    16. Enrico Sergio Levrero, 2021. "Estimates of the Natural Rate of Interest and the Stance of Monetary Policies: A Critical Assessment," International Journal of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(1), pages 5-27, February.
    17. Clark, Todd E. & Kozicki, Sharon, 2005. "Estimating equilibrium real interest rates in real time," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 395-413, December.
    18. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2019. "A New Normal for Interest Rates? Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Debt," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(5), pages 933-949, December.
    19. Jesus Crespo-Cuaremsa & Ernest Gnan & Doris Ritzberger-Gruenwald, 2003. "Searching for the natural rate of interest: a euro area perspective," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 60-80, Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Olmos, Lorena & Sanso Frago, Marcos, 2014. "Natural Rate of Interest with Endogenous Growth, Financial Frictions and Trend Inflation," MPRA Paper 57212, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cbo:wpaper:15469. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cbogvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.