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To Predict the Equity Market, Consult Economic Theory

Author

Listed:
  • Davide Pettenuzzo

    (International Business School, Brandeis University)

Abstract

Despite more than half a century of research on forecasting stock market returns, most predictive models perform quite poorly when they are put to the test of actually predicting equity returns. In fact, many authors, including Bossaerts and Hillion (1999), Brennan and Xia (2005), and Welch and Goyal (2008) suggest that equity returns cannot be predicted at all. This brief proposes a simple yet very effective solution to improve the quality of stock return predictions by taking economic theory into account.

Suggested Citation

  • Davide Pettenuzzo, 2013. "To Predict the Equity Market, Consult Economic Theory," Rosenberg Global Financial Briefs 8, Brandeis University, Rosenberg Institute of Global Finance, International Businesss School, revised 2014.
    • Handle: RePEc:bui:rosgfb:08
    as

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    File URL: http://www.brandeis.edu/global/about/centers/rosenberg/repec/wpapers/Global_Finance_Brief_Pettenuzzo.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2013
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ivo Welch & Amit Goyal, 2008. "A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1455-1508, July.
    2. Brennan, Michael J. & Xia, Yihong, 2005. "tay's as good as cay," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 1-14, March.
    3. Bossaerts, Peter & Hillion, Pierre, 1999. "Implementing Statistical Criteria to Select Return Forecasting Models: What Do We Learn?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(2), pages 405-428.
    4. John Y. Campbell & Samuel B. Thompson, 2008. "Predicting Excess Stock Returns Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1509-1531, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic constraints; Sharpe ratio; Equity premium predictions; Bayesian analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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