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Testing the New Keynesian Phillips Curve Without Assuming Identification

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Author Info
Sophocles Mavroeidis

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Abstract

We re-examine the evidence on the new Phillips curve model of Gali and Gertler (Journal of Monetary Economics 1999) using the conditional score test of Kleibergen (Econometrica 2005), which is robust to weak identification. In contrast to earlier studies, we find that US postwar data are consistent both with the view that inflation dynamics are forward-looking, and with the opposite view that they are predominantly backward-looking. Moreover, the labor share does not appear to be a relevant determinant of inflation. We show that this is an important factor contributing to the weak identification of the Phillips curve.

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Paper provided by Brown University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2006-13.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:bro:econwp:2006-13

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Postal: Department of Economics, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Andreas Beyer & Roger E. A. Farmer & Jérôme Henry & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2007. "Factor Analysis in a Model with Rational Expectations," NBER Working Papers 13404, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Pål Boug, Ådne Cappelen and Anders Rygh Swensen, 2007. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve revisited," Discussion Papers 500, Research Department of Statistics Norway. [Downloadable!]
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