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Network-Based Measures of Systemic Risk in Korea

Author

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  • Jaewon Choi

    (Gies College of Business, University of Illinois/College of Business, Yonsei University)

  • Jieun Lee

    (Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea)

Abstract

We estimate systemic risk in the Korean economy using the econometric measures of commonality and connectedness applied to stock returns. To assess potential systemic risk concerns arising from the high concentration of the economy in large business groups and a few export-oriented sectors, we perform three levels of estimation using individual stocks, business groups, and industry returns. Our results show that the measures perform well over our sample period by indicating heightened levels of commonality and interconnectedness during crisis periods. In out-of-sample tests, we show that the measures can predict future losses in the stock market during the crises. We also provide the recent readings of our measures, both at the market, chaebol, and industry levels. The measures indicate systemic risk is currently not a major concern in Korea, as they tend to be at the lowest level since 1998. Systemic risk within-chaebols or within-industries overall has not significantly increased in the recent sub-period. In contrast, commonality within the finance industry has not subsided, which we interpret as capturing the interconnectedness endemic to the finance industry, rather than indicating a heightened systemic risk within the banking sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaewon Choi & Jieun Lee, 2020. "Network-Based Measures of Systemic Risk in Korea," Working Papers 2020-8, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
  • Handle: RePEc:bok:wpaper:2008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Systemic risk; Network analysis; Korean economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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