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The Volatility of International Trade Flows and Exchange Rate Uncertainty

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Author Info
Christopher F. Baum () (Boston College, DIW Berlin)
Mustafa Caglayan (University of Sheffield)

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Abstract

Empirical evidence obtained from data covering Eurozone countries, other industrialized countries, and newly industrialized countries (NICs) over 1980–2006 shows that exchange rate uncertainty has a consistent positive and significant effect on the volatility of bilateral trade flows. A one standard deviation increase in exchange rate uncertainty leads to an eight per cent increase in trade volatility. These effects differ markedly for trade flows between industrialized countries and NICs, and are not mitigated by the presence of the Eurozone. Contrary to earlier findings, our results also suggest that exchange rate uncertainty does not affect the volume of trade flows of either industrialized countries or NICs.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Boston College Department of Economics in its series Boston College Working Papers in Economics with number 695.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: 27 Nov 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:695

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Related research
Keywords: exchange rates; uncertainty; volatility; trade flows; industrialized countries; Eurozone; newly industrialized countries;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

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    Other versions:
  4. Karolyi, G Andrew, 1995. "A Multivariate GARCH Model of International Transmissions of Stock Returns and Volatility: The Case of the United States and Canada," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 11-25, January.
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    Other versions:
  6. Jeffrey A. Frankel and Shang-Jin Wei., 1993. "Emerging Currency Blocs," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C93-026, University of California at Berkeley.
    Other versions:
  7. John Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan, 1998. "Exchange Rate Effects on the Volume and Variability of Trade Flows," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 405., Boston College Department of Economics, revised 12 Sep 2001. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Sauer, Christine & Bohara, Alok K, 2001. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: Regional Differences between Developing and Industrialized Countries," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 9(1), pages 133-52, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  10. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan, 2004. "Nonlinear effects of exchange rate volatility on the volume of bilateral exports," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 1-23. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Christopher F. Baum & Vince Wiggins, 2001. "Tests for long memory in a time series," Stata Technical Bulletin, StataCorp LP, vol. 10(57). [Downloadable!]
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    Other versions:
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    Other versions:
  21. Mustafa Caglayan & Jing Di, 2008. "Does Real Exchange Rate Volatility Affect Sectoral Trade Flows?," Working Papers 2008011, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2008. [Downloadable!]
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