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Ambiguity Aversion and the Criminal Process

Author

Listed:
  • Uzi Segal

    (Boston College)

  • Alex Stein

    (Benjamin N. Cardoso School of Law)

Abstract

This is the first article to examine the effects of ambiguity aversion on the criminal process. Ambiguity aversion is a person’s rational attitude towards probability's indeterminacy. When a person is averse towards such ambiguities, he increases the probability of the unfavorable outcome to reflect that fear. This observation is particularly true about a criminal defendant who faces a jury trial. Neither the defendant nor the prosecution knows whether the jury will convict the defendant. Their best estimation relies on a highly generalized probability that attaches to a broad category of similar cases. The prosecution, as a repeat player, is predominantly interested in the conviction rate that it achieves over a long series of cases. It therefore can depend on this general probability as an adequate predictor of this rate. The defendant only cares about his individual case and cannot depend on this general probability. From the defendant's perspective, his individual probability of conviction is ambiguous. The defendant consequently increases this probability to reflect his fear of that ambiguity. Because most defendants are ambiguity-averse, while the prosecution is not, the criminal process systematically involves and is thoroughly affected by asymmetric ambiguity-aversion.

Suggested Citation

  • Uzi Segal & Alex Stein, 2005. "Ambiguity Aversion and the Criminal Process," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 615, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 27 Jul 2006.
  • Handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:615
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    Cited by:

    1. Salmon, Timothy C. & Shniderman, Adam, 2019. "Ambiguity in criminal punishment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 361-376.
    2. Benjamin Miranda Tabak & Dimas Mateus Fazio, 2010. "Ambiguity Aversion and Illusion of Control in an Emerging Market: Are Individuals Subject to Behavioral Biases?," Chapters, in: Brian Bruce (ed.), Handbook of Behavioral Finance, chapter 20, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Kocher, Martin G. & Lahno, Amrei Marie & Trautmann, Stefan T., 2018. "Ambiguity aversion is not universal," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 268-283.
    4. Francisco Estrada & Carlos Gay & Cecilia Conde, 2012. "A methodology for the risk assessment of climate variability and change under uncertainty. A case study: coffee production in Veracruz, Mexico," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(2), pages 455-479, July.
    5. Guha, Brishti, 2022. "Ambiguity aversion, group size, and deliberation: Costly information and decision accuracy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 201(C), pages 115-133.
    6. Ziv Naor, 2015. "Why a small probability of terror generates a large macroeconomic impact," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(6), pages 583-599, December.

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