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The natural rate of interest through a hall of mirrors

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  • Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul
  • Fabian Winkler

Abstract

Prevailing justifications of low-for-long interest rates appeal to a secular decline in the natural interest rate, or r-star, due to factors outside monetary policy's control. We propose informational feedback via learning as an alternative explanation for persistently low rates, where monetary policy plays a crucial role. We extend the canonical New Keynesian model to an incomplete information setting where the central bank and the private sector must learn about r-star and infer each other's information from observed macroeconomic outcomes. An informational feedback loop emerges when each side underestimates the effect of its own action on the other's inference, leading to large and persistent changes in perceived r-star disconnected from fundamentals. Monetary policy, through its influence on the private sector's beliefs, endogenously determines r-star as a result. We simulate a calibrated model and show that this 'hall of mirrors' effect can explain much of the decline in real interest rates since 2008.

Suggested Citation

  • Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul & Fabian Winkler, 2021. "The natural rate of interest through a hall of mirrors," BIS Working Papers 974, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:974
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    Cited by:

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    2. Claudio Borio, 2021. "Back to the Future: Intellectual Challenges for Monetary Policy," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 40(4), pages 273-287, December.
    3. Agustín dup Carstens, 2022. "Jackson Hole 2022 - Luncheon Address: A Story of Tailwinds and Headwinds: Aggregate Supply and Macroeconomic Stabilization," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, August.
    4. Grishchenko, V. & Sinyakov, A., 2024. "Demography and equilibrium interest rates: Competing approaches and evidence from Russia," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 229-239.
    5. Claudio Borio, 2021. "Navigating by r*: safe or hazardous?," BIS Working Papers 982, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vítor & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2022. "On the international co-movement of natural interest rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    natural rate of interest; learning; misperception; overreaction; dispersed information; long-term rates; demand shocks; monetary policy shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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