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What share for gold? On the interaction of gold and foreign exchange reserve returns

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  • Omar Zulaica

Abstract

Almost five decades after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, gold continues to form an important share of global foreign exchange reserves. This may be because gold has traditionally offered reserve managers many benefits, such as the absence of default risk. This paper explores whether these large investment shares in gold are also justified from a risk-return standpoint, or whether any other explanations have to be brought to bear. To do this, we go beyond the simple application of portfolio optimisation techniques, comprehensively analysing all possible long-only combinations of gold and representative fixed income reserve portfolios. We conclude that the market risk associated with gold is substantial when evaluated against a broad range of criteria, such as mitigating portfolio volatility, tail-risk, the probability of loss, and measures of diversification. This will tend to limit overall allocations. Nonetheless, for portfolios with higher sensitivity to interest rates (duration) and for reserve managers who measure their returns in a non-reserve currency, we find evidence that gold may function as a hedge, making it easier to justify sizeable gold holdings from a purely quantitative perspective.

Suggested Citation

  • Omar Zulaica, 2020. "What share for gold? On the interaction of gold and foreign exchange reserve returns," BIS Working Papers 906, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:906
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Paweł Kowalewski & Dominik Skopiec, 2023. "Wzrost znaczenia złota w rezerwach dewizowych banków centralnych gospodarek wschodzących," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 54(3), pages 259-284.
    2. Arslanalp, Serkan & Eichengreen, Barry & Simpson-Bell, Chima, 2023. "Gold as international reserves: A barbarous relic no more?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    3. Tomas Adam & Ales Michl & Michal Skoda, 2023. "Balancing Volatility and Returns in the Czech National Bank's Foreign Exchange Portfolio," Research and Policy Notes 2023/01, Czech National Bank.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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