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Incarceration, Unemployment, and the Racial Marriage Divide

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  • Elizabeth M. Caucutt
  • Nezih Guner
  • Christopher Rauh

Abstract

The difference in marriage rates between black and white Americans is striking. Wilson (1987) suggests that a skewed sex ratio and higher rates of incarceration and unemployment are responsible for lower marriage rates among the black population. In this paper, we take a dynamic look at the Wilson Hypothesis. Incarceration rates and labor market prospects of black men make them riskier spouses than white men. We develop an equilibrium search model of marriage, divorce, and labor supply in which transitions between employment, unemployment, and prison differ by race, education, and gender. The model also allows for racial differences in how individuals value marriage and divorce. We estimate the model and investigate how much of the racial divide in marriage is due to the Wilson Hypothesis and how much is due to differences in preferences for marriage. We find that the Wilson Hypothesis accounts for more than three quarters of the model's racial-marriage gap. This suggests policies that improve employment opportunities and/or reduce incarceration for black men could shrink the racial-marriage gap.

Suggested Citation

  • Elizabeth M. Caucutt & Nezih Guner & Christopher Rauh, 2021. "Incarceration, Unemployment, and the Racial Marriage Divide," Working Papers 1300, Barcelona School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:bge:wpaper:1300
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Congressional Budget Office, 2013. "Growth in Means-Tested Programs and Tax Credits for Low-Income Households," Reports 43934, Congressional Budget Office.
    2. Congressional Budget Office, 2013. "Growth in Means-Tested Programs and Tax Credits for Low-Income Households," Reports 43934, Congressional Budget Office.
    3. Congressional Budget Office, 2013. "Growth in Means-Tested Programs and Tax Credits for Low-Income Households," Reports 43934, Congressional Budget Office.
    4. Congressional Budget Office, 2013. "Growth in Means-Tested Programs and Tax Credits for Low-Income Households," Reports 43934, Congressional Budget Office.
    5. Blandin, Adam, 2018. "Learning by Doing and Ben-Porath: Life-cycle Predictions and Policy Implications," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 220-235.
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    Cited by:

    1. Grey Gordon & John B. Jones & Urvi Neelakantan & Kartik Athreya, 2023. "Incarceration, Employment and Earnings: Dynamics and Differences," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 677-697, December.
    2. Christopher Rauh & Aranu Valladares-Esteban, 2023. "On the black-white gaps in labor supply and earnings over the lifecycle in the US," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 424-449, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    marriage; race; incarceration; inequality; unemployment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J12 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure
    • J - Labor and Demographic Economics
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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