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La transición hacia una economía urbana y el aumento del producto per cápita: el caso colombiano del siglo XX desde la perspectiva de Lucas

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Author Info
Carlos Esteban Posada ()
Jorge Andres Tamayo ()

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Abstract

El ritmo de crecimiento económico colombiano exhibió una tendencia decreciente a lo largo del siglo XX. Una explicación basada en el modelo de Solow (una declinación del cambio técnico) nos parece demasiado alejada de la discusión de política económica. De otra parte, varios modelos de crecimiento endógeno no son pertinentes para el caso colombiano por diversas razones (por el mismo comportamiento ya mencionado de la tasa de crecimiento de la economía colombiana o porque son diseñados para países en la frontera tecnológica). En cambio, un modelo reciente de Lucas nos parece pertinente y genera un comportamiento de "u" invertida para la tasa de crecimiento económico (y, por tanto, una tendencia decreciente después de alcanzar su cima). Este trabajo intenta sacar provecho de sus alcances y limitaciones para interpretar el crecimiento colombiano del siglo XX, esto es, sus tendencias y "ciclos económicos largos" o diferencias positivas y negativas entre la tendencia generada al aplicar el modelo y el crecimiento observado en diferentes períodos específicos.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 534.

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Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:534

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Related research
Keywords: Producto per cápita; capital humano; sectores rural y urbano; costo social. Classification JEL: O11; O14; O15;

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    Other versions:
  4. Carlos Esteban Posada & Miguel Urrutia Montoya, 2004. "Un Siglo de Crecimiento Económico," INVESTIGACIÓN ECONÓMICA EN COLOMBIA 003692, FUNDACIÓN PONDO. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Tamura, Robert, 1991. "Income Convergence in an Endogenous Growth Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 522-40, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Temple, Jonathan & Voth, Hans-Joachim, 1998. "Human capital, equipment investment, and industrialization," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(7), pages 1343-1362, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Cole, Harold L. & Ohanian, Lee E. & Riascos, Alvaro & Schmitz, James Jr, 2005. "Latin America in the rearview mirror," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 69-107, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Juan José Echavarría & Mauricio Villamizar & colaboración Juanita González, . "El Proceso Colombiano de Desindustrialización," Borradores de Economia 361, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Roberto Junguito & Hernán Rincón, 2004. "La Política Fiscal En El Siglo Xx En Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003052, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Stephen L. Parente & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Barriers to Riches," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262661306, January.
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