IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdr/borrec/1199.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Modelling CDS Volatility at Different Tenures: An Application for Latin-American Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Fredy Gamboa-Estrada
  • José Vicente Romero

Abstract

Assessing the dynamics of risk premium measures and its relationship with macroeconomic fundamentals is important for both macroeconomic policymakers and market practitioners. This paper analyzes the main determinants of CDS in Latin-America at different tenures, focusing on their volatility. Using a component GARCH model, we decompose volatility between permanent and transitory components. We find that the permanent component of CDS volatility in all tenors was higher and more persistent in the global financial crisis than during the recent COVID-19 shock. **** RESUMEN: Evaluar la dinámica de las medidas de prima de riesgo y su relación con los fundamentales macroeconómicos es importante tanto para quienes implementan las políticas macroeconómicas como para los participantes del mercado. En este documento se analizan los principales determinantes de los CDS para economías de Latinoamérica a diferentes plazos, enfocándose en su volatilidad. Empleando un modelo GARCH por componentes, se realiza una descomposición de la volatilidad de los CDS a diferentes plazos entre un componente permanente y transitorio. En los resultados se encuentra que el componente permanente de la volatilidad de los CDS en todos los plazos fue mayor y más persistente durante la crisis financiera global que durante el episodio más reciente relacionado con el choque del COVID-19.

Suggested Citation

  • Fredy Gamboa-Estrada & José Vicente Romero, 2022. "Modelling CDS Volatility at Different Tenures: An Application for Latin-American Countries," Borradores de Economia 1199, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:1199
    DOI: 10.32468/be.1199
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.32468/be.1199
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.32468/be.1199?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aizenman, Joshua & Hutchison, Michael & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2013. "What is the risk of European sovereign debt defaults? Fiscal space, CDS spreads and market pricing of risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 37-59.
    2. Gündüz, Yalin & Kaya, Orcun, 2013. "Sovereign default swap market efficiency and country risk in the eurozone," Discussion Papers 08/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Hasan Murat Ertugrul & Huseyin Ozturk, 2013. "The Drivers of Credit Default Swap Prices: Evidence from Selected Emerging Market Countries," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(S5), pages 228-249, November.
    4. Tim Bollerslev, 2008. "Glossary to ARCH (GARCH)," CREATES Research Papers 2008-49, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    5. Calice, Giovanni & Mio, RongHui & Štěrba, Filip & Vašíček, Bořek, 2015. "Short-term determinants of the idiosyncratic sovereign risk premium: A regime-dependent analysis for European credit default swaps," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 174-189.
    6. Bouri, Elie & de Boyrie, Maria E. & Pavlova, Ivelina, 2017. "Volatility transmission from commodity markets to sovereign CDS spreads in emerging and frontier countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 155-165.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Boehm, Hannes & Eichler, Stefan & Giessler, Stefan, 2021. "What drives the commodity-sovereign risk dependence in emerging market economies?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    2. Boonlert Jitmaneeroj & John Ogwang, 2016. "An Empirical Analysis of Sovereign Credit Risk Co-movement between Japan and ASEAN Countries," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 8(4), pages 6-16.
    3. Wu, Eliza & Erdem, Magdalena & Kalotychou, Elena & Remolona, Eli, 2016. "The anatomy of sovereign risk contagion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 264-286.
    4. Hernando Vargas-Herrera & Juan Jose Ospina & Jose Vicente Romero, 2022. "The Covid-19 shock and the monetary policy response in Colombia," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The monetary-fiscal policy nexus in the wake of the pandemic, volume 122, pages 79-114, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Nader Naifar, 2020. "What Explains the Sovereign Credit Default Swap Spreads Changes in the GCC Region?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-22, October.
    6. Tkalec, Marina & Vizek, Maruška & Verbič, Miroslav, 2014. "Balance sheet effects and original sinners’ risk premiums," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 597-613.
    7. Naifar, Nader & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain, 2022. "Tail event-based sovereign credit risk transmission network during COVID-19 pandemic," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    8. Steininger, Lea & Hesse, Casimir, 2024. "Buying into new ideas: The ECB’s evolving justification of unlimited liquidity," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 357, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    9. Mikhail Stolbov, 2017. "Determinants of sovereign credit risk: the case of Russia," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 51-70, January.
    10. Claeys, Peter & Vašíček, Bořek, 2014. "Measuring bilateral spillover and testing contagion on sovereign bond markets in Europe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 151-165.
    11. Perego, Erica, 2020. "Sovereign risk and asset market dynamics in the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    12. Cornand, Camille & Gandré, Pauline & Gimet, Céline, 2016. "Increase in home bias in the Eurozone debt crisis: The role of domestic shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 445-469.
    13. Balima, Wenéyam Hippolyte & Combes, Jean-Louis & Minea, Alexandru, 2017. "Sovereign debt risk in emerging market economies: Does inflation targeting adoption make any difference?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 360-377.
    14. Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak, 2012. "Income Inequality, Tax Base and Sovereign Spreads," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 68(4), pages 431-444, December.
    15. Joshua Aizenman & Mahir Binici & Michael M. Hutchison, 2016. "The Transmission of Federal Reserve Tapering News to Emerging Financial Markets," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(2), pages 317-356, June.
    16. Kinateder, Harald & Wagner, Niklas, 2017. "Quantitative easing and the pricing of EMU sovereign debt," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 1-12.
    17. Stavros E. Arvanitis & Theodoros V. Stamatopoulos & Dimitris Terzakis, 2018. "Is There a Non-linear Relationship of Market Value with Cash and Ownership?," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 68(1), pages 3-25, January-M.
    18. Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Kobielarz, M.L. & Uras, R.B., 2015. "Sovereign Debt, Bail-Outs and Contagion in a Monetary Union," Discussion Paper 2015-018, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    19. Niccolò Battistini & Marco Pagano & Saverio Simonelli, 2014. "Systemic risk, sovereign yields and bank exposures in the euro crisis [Real effects of the sovereign debt crises in Europe: evidence from syndicated loans]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 29(78), pages 203-251.
    20. J. Alsubaiei, Bader & Calice, Giovanni & Vivian, Andrew, 2021. "Sovereign CDS and mutual funds: Global evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit default swaps (CDS); CDS in Latin-American countries; sovereign risk; volatility; crisis; component GARCH models; Credit default swaps (CDS); CDS de países en Latinoamérica; riesgo soberano; volatilidad; crisis; modelos GARCH por componentes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:1199. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Clorith Angélica Bahos Olivera (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/brcgvco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.