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La Credibilidad de la Política Anti-Inflacionaria

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  • Carlos Esteban Posada
  • cposadpo@banrep.gov.co

Abstract

En Colombia las inflaciones de los últimos decenios y la actual no han sido bajas, como es bien sabido, y han dado lugar, por tanto, a un sinnúmero de investigaciones sobre las causas, consecuencias y diversos aspectos de la inflación. La siguiente nota sólo aspira a ofrecer un entendimiento más detallado de uno de los aspectos de la inflación y referido a la economía política positiva de sus causas y trayectoria temporal. Desde el punto de vista teórico lo que sigue no es novedoso; se trata simplemente de una adaptación y aplicación del modelo de inflación de Barro y Gordon (1) con algunos cálculos para el caso colombiano. El énfasis del documento yace en tres aspectos del problema asociado a la determinación de la tasa de inflación y a la reducción de su nivel: a. La longitud del horizonte de las autoridades económicas; b. La ponderación asignada al objetivo anti-inflacionario frente a otros objetivos y c. La naturaleza de las expectativas de los agentes privados. Según el modelo, estas consideraciones son esenciales para entender las magnitudes y trayectoria temporal de la inflación y el grado de credibilidad que los agentes privados puedan otorgarle a un programa anti-inflacionario. Como quedará claro, el modelo no le quita validez a muchas interpretaciones ya bien conocidas de la inflación que hacen hincapié en otros aspectos; pero si pueden servir, entre otras cosas, para darles nueva o mayor luz. (1) Barro 1990, cap. 3. Una adaptación a economías abiertas (o semi-abiertas) se encuentra en Gavazzi y pagano (1988, citado por Junguito y Vargas 1996).
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Esteban Posada & cposadpo@banrep.gov.co, 1996. "La Credibilidad de la Política Anti-Inflacionaria," Borradores de Economia 066, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:066
    DOI: 10.32468/be.66
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Barro, Robert J. & Gordon, David B., 1983. "Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 101-121.
    2. Cukierman, Alex & Liviatan, Nissan, 1991. "Optimal accommodation by strong policymakers under incomplete information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 99-127, February.
    3. José Darío Uribe, 1994. "Inflación Inercial , Tasa De Cambio Y Anclas," Borradores de Economia 2849, Banco de la Republica.
    4. Alejandro Gaviria, 1993. "El ahorro privado y los términos de intercambio: el caso colombiano," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 12(23), pages 37-54, June.
    5. M.A. Jenkins, 1996. "Central bank independence and inflation performance: panacea or placebo?," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 49(197), pages 241-270.
    6. Ball, Laurence, 1995. "Time-consistent policy and persistent changes in inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 329-350, November.
    7. Roberto Junguito & Hernando Vargas, 1996. "Central Bank Independence and Foreign Exchange Policies in Latin America," Borradores de Economia 046, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
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