IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdi/opques/qef_669_22.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Mind the Gap! The (unexpected) impact of COVID-19 pandemic on VAT revenue in Italy

Author

Listed:
  • Francesco Berardini

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Fabrizio Renzi

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

The decline in VAT revenue during the Covid-19 recession has been unexpectedly lower than the drop in household consumption. In the first half of 2021, VAT bounced back to pre-crisis levels even though aggregate consumption had still not recovered. According to our analysis, this result reflected the peculiar nature of the pandemic crisis and the subsequent shutdown of retail shops and services, which has considerably affected consumer habits. Consumption of services, characterized by lower VAT rates and a lower degree of compliance, dropped massively, while spending on durable goods fell briefly at the onset of the crisis and then rose quickly to pre-crisis levels; moreover, the share of cashless payments has increased, both in physical stores and on-line. If the change in payment habits turned out to be permanent, this would lead to a structural reduction in the government deficit. Additionally, we provide preliminary evidence on the effect of electronic payments on reducing VAT tax evasion: a one-percentage point increase in the share of cashless payments results in approximately 0.4 per cent higher VAT revenue owing to increased compliance.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Berardini & Fabrizio Renzi, 2022. "Mind the Gap! The (unexpected) impact of COVID-19 pandemic on VAT revenue in Italy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 669, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_669_22
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2022-0669/QEF_669_22.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Agnieszka Szczypińska, 2019. "What drives the VAT gap in the European Union?," Collegium of Economic Analysis Annals, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, issue 55, pages 69-82.
    2. Kristen Tauber & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2021. "Why Has Durable Goods Spending Been So Strong during the COVID-19 Pandemic?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2021(16), pages 1-6, July.
    3. Martin Beraja & Christian K. Wolf, 2021. "Demand Composition and the Strength of Recoveries," NBER Working Papers 29304, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Gilles Mourre & Savina Princen, 2015. "Tax Revenue Elasticities Corrected for Policy Changes in the EU," European Economy - Discussion Papers 018, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    5. Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak, 2008. "The collection efficiency of the Value Added Tax: Theory and international evidence," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 391-410.
    6. Immordino, Giovanni & Russo, Francesco Flaviano, 2018. "Cashless payments and tax evasion," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 36-43.
    7. Esselink, Henk & Gijsel, Lola Hernandez-van, 2017. "The use of cash by households in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 201, European Central Bank.
    8. Giorgia Rocco, 2019. "The use of cash in Italy: evidence from the ECB Study on the use of cash by households," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 481, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    9. Allingham, Michael G. & Sandmo, Agnar, 1972. "Income tax evasion: a theoretical analysis," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3-4), pages 323-338, November.
    10. Mr. John D Brondolo, 2009. "Collecting Taxes During an Economic Crisis: Challenges and Policy Options," IMF Staff Position Notes 2009/017, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Elisa Guglielminetti & Concetta Rondinelli, 2021. "Consumption and saving patterns in Italy during Covid-19," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 620, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    12. Robert Price & Thai-Thanh Dang & Yvan Guillemette, 2014. "New Tax and Expenditure Elasticity Estimates for EU Budget Surveillance," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1174, OECD Publishing.
    13. Guerino Ardizzi & Andrea Nobili & Giorgia Rocco, 2020. "A game changer in payment habits: evidence from daily data during a pandemic," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 591, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    14. George Hondroyiannis & Dimitrios Papaoikonomou, 2017. "The effect of card payments on vat revenue in Greece," Working Papers 225, Bank of Greece.
    15. Hannah Simon & Michelle Harding, 2020. "What drives consumption tax revenues?: Disentangling policy and macroeconomic drivers," OECD Taxation Working Papers 47, OECD Publishing.
    16. George Hondroyiannis & Dimitrios Papaoikonomou, 2020. "The effect of card payments on VAT revenue in the euro area: evidence from a panel VECM," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 47(6), pages 1281-1306, June.
    17. Hondroyiannis, George & Papaoikonomou, Dimitrios, 2017. "The effect of card payments on VAT revenue: New evidence from Greece," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 17-20.
    18. Mr. Tigran Poghosyan, 2011. "Assessing the Variability of Tax Elasticities in Lithuania," IMF Working Papers 2011/270, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Mr. Junji Ueda, 2017. "The Evolution of Potential VAT Revenues and C-Efficiency in Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 2017/158, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Ms. Cemile Sancak & Jing Xing & Ricardo Velloso, 2010. "Tax Revenue Response to the Business Cycle," IMF Working Papers 2010/071, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Eric Hutton, 2017. "The Revenue Administration–Gap Analysis Program; Model and Methodology for Value-Added Tax Gap Estimation," IMF Technical Notes and Manuals 17/04, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Mr. Eric Hutton, 2017. "The Revenue Administration–Gap Analysis Program: Model and Methodology for Value-Added Tax Gap Estimation," IMF Technical Notes and Manuals 2017/004, International Monetary Fund.
    23. John Brondolo, 2009. "Collecting Taxes During an Economic Crisis; Challenges and Policy Options," IMF Staff Position Notes 2009/17, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Luiz de Mello, 2009. "Avoiding the Value Added Tax," Public Finance Review, , vol. 37(1), pages 27-46, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Robert Kelm, 2022. "Determinants of the VAT Gap in EU Member States from 2000 to 2016," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 14(4), pages 225-262, December.
    2. Mr. Tigran Poghosyan, 2011. "Assessing the Variability of Tax Elasticities in Lithuania," IMF Working Papers 2011/270, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Antonio Gómez Gómez-Plana & Pedro Pascual Arzoz, 2011. "Fraude fiscal e IVA en España: incidencia en un modelo de equilibrio general," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 199(4), pages 9-52, December.
    4. Serhan Cevik & Jan Gottschalk & Eric Hutton & Laura Jaramillo & Pooja Karnane & Mousse Sow, 2019. "Structural transformation and tax efficiency," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 341-379, December.
    5. Nguyen, Trang Thi Thuy & Pham, Binh Thai & Prior, Diego & van Hemmen, Stefan, 2022. "Performance of tax simplification around the world: A panel frontier analysis," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    6. Santiago Acosta-Ormaechea & Atsuyoshi Morozumi, 2021. "The value-added tax and growth: design matters," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(5), pages 1211-1241, October.
    7. Athanasios O. Tagkalakis, 2014. "Is there any evidence of VAT related buoyancy effects in Greece?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(3), pages 1762-1775.
    8. Ms. Cemile Sancak & Jing Xing & Ricardo Velloso, 2010. "Tax Revenue Response to the Business Cycle," IMF Working Papers 2010/071, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Athanasios O. Tagkalakis, 2014. "The determinants of vat revenue efficiency: recent evidence from Greece," Working Papers 181, Bank of Greece.
    10. Karolina Konopczak & Aleksander Łożykowski, 2021. "Efekt fiskalny uszczelniania systemu podatkowego w Polsce: próba oszacowania w zakresie podatku CIT," Ekonomista, Polskie Towarzystwo Ekonomiczne, issue 1, pages 25-55.
    11. Kasselaki, Maria Th. & Tagkalakis, Athanasios O., 2016. "Fiscal policy and private investment in Greece," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 53-106.
    12. Athanasios O. Tagkalakis, 2013. "Assessing the variability of indirect tax elasticity in Greece," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(3), pages 2098-2109.
    13. Karolina Konopczak & Aleksander Łożykowski, 2021. "Efekt fiskalny uszczelniania systemu podatkowego w Polsce: próba oszacowania w zakresie podatku CIT," Ekonomista, Polskie Towarzystwo Ekonomiczne, vol. 1, pages 25-55, January.
    14. Christou Anna & Eriotis Nikolaos & Lomis Ioannis & Papadakis Spyros & Thalassinos Eleftherios, 2021. "The Greek VAT Gap: The Influence of Individual Economic Sectors," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4B), pages 851-882.
    15. Ali-Yrkkö, Jyrki & Koski, Heli & Kässi, Otto & Pajarinen, Mika & Valkonen, Tarmo & Hokkanen, Marja & Hyvönen, Noora & Koivusalo, Elina & Laaksonen, Jarno & Laitinen, Juha & Nyström, Enni, 2020. "The Size of the Digital Economy in Finland and Its Impact on Taxation," ETLA Reports 106, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    16. Rainone, Edoardo, 2023. "Tax evasion policies and the demand for cash," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    17. Hashimzade, Nigar & Huang, Zhanyi & Myles, Gareth D., 2010. "Tax fraud by firms and optimal auditing," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 10-17, March.
    18. Ioannis Gasteratos & Michael Karamalis & Andreas Koutoupis & Ioannis Filos, 2016. "Earnings Management in Greece: A Case Study in Construction Sector Using Jones Model," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(4), pages 3-16.
    19. Stavros Degiannakis & Timotheos Angelidis & George Filis, 2013. "Oil price shocks and volatility do predict stock market regimes," Working Papers 170, Bank of Greece.
    20. Bohne, Albrecht & Koumpias, Antonios M. & Tassi, Annalisa, 2023. "Cashless payments and tax evasion: Evidence from VAT gaps in the EU," ZEW Discussion Papers 23-060, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid-19; value added tax; vat compliance; vat gap; cashless payments; payment habits; household behavior; consumer preferences;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_669_22. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdigvit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.