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Measuring the impact of a bank failure on the real economy. An EU-wide analytical framework

Author

Listed:
  • Valerio Paolo Vacca

    (Banca d'Italia)

  • Fabian Bichlmeier

    (Deutsche Bundesbank)

  • Paolo Biraschi

    (Single Resolution Board)

  • Natalie Boschi

    (Bafin)

  • Antonio J. Bravo Alvarez

    (FROB Autoridad de Resolución Ejecutiva)

  • Luciano Di Primio

    (Banca d'Italia)

  • André Ebner

    (Deutsche Bundesbank)

  • Silvia Hoeretzeder

    (Oesterreichische Nationalbank)

  • Elisa Llorente Ballesteros

    (Banco de España)

  • Claudia Miani

    (Single Resolution Board)

  • Giacomo Ricci

    (Banca d'Italia)

  • Raffaele Santioni

    (Banca d'Italia)

  • Stefan Schellerer

    (Oesterreichische Nationalbank)

  • Hanna Westman

    (Rahoitusvakausvirasto)

Abstract

We present an analytical framework for quantifying the potential impact on the real economy stemming from a bank’s sudden liquidation, focusing on the consequences that arise when a credit institution interrupts its lending activities. In a first step, we quantify the potential credit shortfall faced by firms and households due to the sudden liquidation of a bank. In a second step, we estimate the impact of a firm’s credit shortfall on real outcomes via both a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression (FAVAR) model and a micro-econometric model. Appropriate reference values (benchmarks) are provided to assess the estimated outcomes. The illustrative results show that this harmonized approach is feasible across the Banking Union and it is applicable to banks of heterogeneous size and significance. Particularly in the case of the medium-sized banks, the implementation of this common analytical framework could provide useful insights to reduce the uncertainty about whether resolution is in the public interest, i.e. to what extent the failure of an institution would endanger financial stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Valerio Paolo Vacca & Fabian Bichlmeier & Paolo Biraschi & Natalie Boschi & Antonio J. Bravo Alvarez & Luciano Di Primio & André Ebner & Silvia Hoeretzeder & Elisa Llorente Ballesteros & Claudia Mian, 2021. "Measuring the impact of a bank failure on the real economy. An EU-wide analytical framework," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 626, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_626_21
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bank resolution; bank insolvency; crisis management; public interest assessment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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