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Modeling the distribution of credit losses with observable and latent factors

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Author Info
Gabriel Jiménez () (Banco de España)
Javier Mencía () (Banco de España)
Abstract

This paper develops a flexible and computationally efficient model to estimate the credit loss distribution of the loans in a banking system. We consider a sectorial structure, where default frequencies and the total number of loans are allowed to depend on macroeconomic conditions as well as on unobservable credit risk factors, which can capture contagion effects between sectors. In addition, we also model the distributions of the Exposure at Default and the Loss Given Default. We apply our model to the Spanish credit market, where we find that sectorial default frequencies are affected by a persistent latent factor. Finally, we also identify the potentially riskier sectors and perform stress tests.

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File URL: http://www.bde.es/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/07/Fic/dt0709e.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function: First version, April 2007
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Banco de España in its series Banco de España Working Papers with number 0709.

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Length: 49 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0709

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Related research
Keywords: credit risk; probability of default; loss distribution; stress test; contagion;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Mortgages
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
  2. Jörg Breitung & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2005. "Unit Roots and Cointegration in Panels," IEPR Working Papers 05.32, Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Gordy, Michael B. & Howells, Bradley, 2006. "Procyclicality in Basel II: Can we treat the disease without killing the patient?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 395-417, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Jimenez, Gabriel & Salas, Vicente & Saurina, Jesus, 2006. "Determinants of collateral," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 255-281, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Schuermann, Til & Treutler, Bjorn-Jakob & Weiner, Scott M., 2006. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1211-1261, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Russell Davidson & James G. MacKinnon, 1985. "Testing Linear and Loglinear Regressions against Box-Cox Alternatives," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 18(3), pages 499-517, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Alfredo Martín-Oliver & Vicente Salas-Fumás & Jesús Saurina, 2005. "A test of the law of one price in retail banking," Banco de España Working Papers 0530, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Carlos González-Aguado & Max Bruche, 2006. "Recovery Rates, Default Probabilities and the Credit Cycle," FMG Discussion Papers dp572, Financial Markets Group. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Martin Summer & Helmut Elsinger & Alfred Lehar, 2002. "Risk Assessment for Banking Systems," Working Papers 79, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
  10. Gabriel Jiménez & Jose A. Lopez & Jesús Saurina, 2007. "Empirical analysis of corporate credit lines," Working Paper Series 2007-14, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Til Schuermann & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2006. "Visible and hidden risk factors for banks," Staff Reports 252, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  12. Virolainen , Kimmo, 2004. "Macro stress testing with a macroeconomic credit risk model for Finland," Research Discussion Papers 18/2004, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
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