IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bca/bocadp/16-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Evolution of the Chinese Housing Market and Its Impact on Base Metal Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Mark Kruger
  • Kun Mo
  • Benjamin Sawatzky

Abstract

The Chinese housing market has grown rapidly following its liberalization in the 1990s, generating significant economic activity and demand for base metals. In this paper, we discuss the evolution of the Chinese housing market and quantify its importance for the overall Chinese economy and its linkages to base metal prices. We estimate that the housing boom was responsible for roughly a quarter of the 85 per cent increase in base metal prices from 2002 to 2010. Since 2014, however, a substantial inventory overhang has led to a steep correction in the housing market, which in turn has contributed up to a third of the 25 per cent decline in base metal prices. While the drag on metal prices should ease as the Chinese housing market stabilizes, the level of support from this sector will likely remain minimal compared with the experience of the past decade.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Kruger & Kun Mo & Benjamin Sawatzky, 2016. "The Evolution of the Chinese Housing Market and Its Impact on Base Metal Prices," Discussion Papers 16-7, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocadp:16-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/sdp2016-7.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Calista Cheung & Sylvie Morin, 2007. "The Impact of Emerging Asia on Commodity Prices," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 181-224, July-Dece.
    2. Hanming Fang & Quanlin Gu & Wei Xiong & Li-An Zhou, 2016. "Demystifying the Chinese Housing Boom," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(1), pages 105-166.
    3. Zan Yang & Jie Chen, 2014. "Housing Reform and the Housing Market in Urban China," SpringerBriefs in Economics, in: Housing Affordability and Housing Policy in Urban China, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 15-43, Springer.
    4. Kaiji Chen & Yi Wen, 2017. "The Great Housing Boom of China," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 73-114, April.
    5. Leon Berkelmans & Hao Wang, 2012. "Chinese Urban Residential Construction to 2040," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2012-04, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    6. Leon Berkelmans & Hao Wang, 2012. "Chinese Urban Residential Construction," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 21-26, September.
    7. Wenlang Zhang & Gaofeng Han & Steven Chan, 2014. "How Strong are the Linkages between Real Estate and Other Sectors in China?," Working Papers 112014, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    8. Miss Mali Chivakul & Mr. Waikei R Lam & Xiaoguang Liu & Wojciech Maliszewski & Mr. Alfred Schipke, 2015. "Understanding Residential Real Estate in China," IMF Working Papers 2015/084, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Zan Yang & Jie Chen, 2014. "Housing Affordability and Housing Policy in Urban China," SpringerBriefs in Economics, Springer, edition 127, number 978-3-642-54044-8, October.
    10. Mr. Yongzhen Yu, 2011. "Identifying the Linkages between Major Mining Commodity Prices and China’s Economic Growth—Implications for Latin America," IMF Working Papers 2011/086, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Elif Arbatli & Garima Vasishtha, 2012. "Growth in Emerging Market Economies and the Commodity Boom of 2003–2008: Evidence from Growth Forecast Revisions," Staff Working Papers 12-8, Bank of Canada.
    12. Ilan Kolet & Ryan Macdonald, 2010. "The Fisher BCPI: The Bank of Canada’s New Commodity Price Index," Discussion Papers 10-6, Bank of Canada.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jeannine Bailliu & Doga Bilgin & Kun Mo & Kurt Niquidet & Benjamin Sawatzky, 2019. "Global Commodity Markets and Rebalancing in China: The Case of Copper," Discussion Papers 2019-3, Bank of Canada.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guonan Ma & Ivan Roberts & Gerard Kelly, 2016. "A Rebalancing Chinese Economy: Challenges and International Implications," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Iris Day & John Simon (ed.),Structural Change in China: Implications for Australia and the World, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    2. Miss Mali Chivakul & Mr. Waikei R Lam & Xiaoguang Liu & Wojciech Maliszewski & Mr. Alfred Schipke, 2015. "Understanding Residential Real Estate in China," IMF Working Papers 2015/084, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Alexander Cooper & Arianna Cowling, 2015. "China’s Property Sector," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 45-54, March.
    4. Chen, Jie & Hu, Mingzhi & Lin, Zhenguo, 2019. "Does housing unaffordability crowd out elites in Chinese superstar cities?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 1-1.
    5. da Rocha, Felipe Freitas & Bielschowsky, Ricardo, 2018. "China’s quest for natural resources in Latin America," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
    6. Shi, Yining, 2022. "Financial liberalization and house prices: Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    7. Mr. Kenneth Rogoff & Yuanchen Yang, 2022. "A Tale of Tier 3 Cities," IMF Working Papers 2022/196, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Bhatt, Vipul & Liao, Mouhua & Zhao, Min Qiang, 2023. "Government policy and land price dynamics: A quantitative assessment of China’s factor market reforms," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    9. Waxman, Andrew & Liang, Yuanning & Li, Shanjun & Barwick, Panle Jia & Zhao, Meng, 2020. "Tightening belts to buy a home: Consumption responses to rising housing prices in urban China," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    10. Atanu Ghoshray & Madhavi Pundit, 2021. "Economic growth in China and its impact on international commodity prices," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2776-2789, April.
    11. Tim Robinson & Tim Atkin & Mark Caputo & Hao Wang, 2017. "Macroeconomic Consequences of Terms of Trade Episodes, Past and Present," Australian Economic History Review, Economic History Society of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57(3), pages 291-315, November.
    12. Chang Liu & Wei Xiong, 2018. "China's Real Estate Market," NBER Working Papers 25297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Edward Glaeser & Wei Huang & Yueran Ma & Andrei Shleifer, 2017. "A Real Estate Boom with Chinese Characteristics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(1), pages 93-116, Winter.
    14. Rose Neng Lai & Robert Van Order, 2019. "Shadow Banking and the Property Market in China," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 22(3), pages 361-399.
    15. Ludovic Gauvin & Cyril C. Rebillard, 2018. "Towards recoupling? Assessing the global impact of a Chinese hard landing through trade and commodity price channels," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(12), pages 3379-3415, December.
    16. Zhao, Renjie & Zhang, Jiakai, 2022. "Rent-tax substitution and its impact on firms: Evidence from housing purchase limits policy in China," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    17. Jia Pengfei & Lim King Yoong, 2021. "Tax Policy and Toxic Housing Bubbles in China," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(1), pages 151-183, January.
    18. Fan, Ying & Wu, Jing & Yang, Zan, 2017. "Informal borrowing and home purchase: Evidence from urban China," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 108-118.
    19. Yongheng Deng & Jing Wu & Yang Tang & ping wang, 2019. "Spatial Misallocation in Chinese Housing and Land Markets," 2019 Meeting Papers 1351, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. Ms. Yu Shi, 2018. "Sectoral Booms and Misallocation of Managerial Talent: Evidence from the Chinese Real Estate Boom," IMF Working Papers 2018/221, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International topics;

    JEL classification:

    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocadp:16-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bocgvca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.