IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/azt/cemmap/44-13.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Properties of the maximum likelihood estimator in spatial autoregressive models

Author

Listed:
  • Grant Hillier
  • Federico Martellosio

Abstract

The (quasi-) maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for the autoregressive parameter in a spatial autoregressive model cannot in general be written explicitly in terms of the data. The only known properties of the estimator have hitherto been its first-order asymptotic properties (Lee, 2004, Econometrica), derived under specific assumptions on the evolution of the spatial weights matrix involved. In this paper we show that the exact cumulative distribution function of the estimator can, under mild assumptions, be written down explicitly. A number of immediate consequences of the main result are discussed, and several examples of theoretical and practical interest are analysed in detail. The examples are of interest in their own right, but also serve to illustrate some unexpected features of the distribution of the MLE. In particular, we show that the distribution of the MLE may not be supported on the entire parameter space, and may be nonanalytic at some points in its support.Supplementary material relating to this working paper can be viewed here

Suggested Citation

  • Grant Hillier & Federico Martellosio, 2013. "Properties of the maximum likelihood estimator in spatial autoregressive models," CeMMAP working papers 44/13, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:azt:cemmap:44/13
    DOI: 10.1920/wp.cem.2013.4413
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cemmap.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/CWP4413.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1920/wp.cem.2013.4413?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kelejian, Harry H. & Prucha, Ingmar R., 2010. "Specification and estimation of spatial autoregressive models with autoregressive and heteroskedastic disturbances," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 157(1), pages 53-67, July.
    2. Hillier, Grant & Kan, Raymond & Wang, Xiaolu, 2009. "Computationally Efficient Recursions For Top-Order Invariant Polynomials With Applications," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(1), pages 211-242, February.
    3. Bramoullé, Yann & Djebbari, Habiba & Fortin, Bernard, 2009. "Identification of peer effects through social networks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 150(1), pages 41-55, May.
    4. Baltagi, Badi H., 2006. "Random Effects And Spatial Autocorrelation With Equal Weights," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(5), pages 973-984, October.
    5. Forchini, G., 2002. "The Exact Cumulative Distribution Function Of A Ratio Of Quadratic Forms In Normal Variables, With Application To The Ar(1) Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(4), pages 823-852, August.
    6. Marianne Bertrand & Erzo F. P. Luttmer & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2000. "Network Effects and Welfare Cultures," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(3), pages 1019-1055.
    7. Liu, Xiaodong & Patacchini, Eleonora & Zenou, Yves & Lee, Lung-Fei, 2011. "Criminal Networks: Who is the Key Player?," Research Papers in Economics 2011:7, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
    8. Martellosio, Federico, 2011. "Efficiency of the OLS estimator in the vicinity of a spatial unit root," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(8), pages 1285-1291, August.
    9. Case, Anne C, 1991. "Spatial Patterns in Household Demand," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(4), pages 953-965, July.
    10. Joris Pinkse & Margaret E. Slade & Craig Brett, 2002. "Spatial Price Competition: A Semiparametric Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(3), pages 1111-1153, May.
    11. Bao, Yong, 2013. "Finite Sample Bias Of The Qmle In Spatial Autoregressive Models – Erratum," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(1), pages 89-89, February.
    12. Harry H. Kelejian & Ingmar R. Prucha & Yevgeny Yuzefovich, 2006. "Estimation Problems In Models With Spatial Weighting Matrices Which Have Blocks Of Equal Elements," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(3), pages 507-515, August.
    13. Hillier, Grant, 2001. "THE DENSITY OF A QUADRATIC FORM IN A VECTOR UNIFORMLY DISTRIBUTED ON THE n-SPHERE," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(1), pages 1-28, February.
    14. Besley, Timothy & Case, Anne, 1995. "Incumbent Behavior: Vote-Seeking, Tax-Setting, and Yardstick Competition," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 25-45, March.
    15. Bao, Yong, 2013. "Finite-Sample Bias Of The Qmle In Spatial Autoregressive Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(1), pages 68-88, February.
    16. Rothenberg, Thomas J, 1971. "Identification in Parametric Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(3), pages 577-591, May.
    17. Audretsch, David B & Feldman, Maryann P, 1996. "R&D Spillovers and the Geography of Innovation and Production," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 630-640, June.
    18. Bao, Yong & Ullah, Aman, 2007. "Finite sample properties of maximum likelihood estimator in spatial models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 137(2), pages 396-413, April.
    19. Lee, Lung-fei, 2007. "Identification and estimation of econometric models with group interactions, contextual factors and fixed effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 333-374, October.
    20. Giorgio Topa, 2001. "Social Interactions, Local Spillovers and Unemployment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 68(2), pages 261-295.
    21. Lung-Fei Lee, 2004. "Asymptotic Distributions of Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimators for Spatial Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(6), pages 1899-1925, November.
    22. Lung-fei Lee & Xiaodong Liu & Xu Lin, 2010. "Specification and estimation of social interaction models with network structures," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 13(2), pages 145-176, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Grant Hillier & Federico Martellosio, 2013. "Properties of the maximum likelihood estimator in spatial autoregressive models," CeMMAP working papers CWP44/13, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    2. Yang, Zhenlin, 2015. "A general method for third-order bias and variance corrections on a nonlinear estimator," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 186(1), pages 178-200.
    3. Kelejian, Harry H. & Prucha, Ingmar R., 2010. "Specification and estimation of spatial autoregressive models with autoregressive and heteroskedastic disturbances," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 157(1), pages 53-67, July.
    4. Harald Badinger & Peter Egger, 2015. "Fixed Effects and Random Effects Estimation of Higher-order Spatial Autoregressive Models with Spatial Autoregressive and Heteroscedastic Disturbances," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 11-35, March.
    5. Martellosio, Federico & Hillier, Grant, 2020. "Adjusted QMLE for the spatial autoregressive parameter," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 219(2), pages 488-506.
    6. Federico Martellosio & Grant Hillier, 2019. "Adjusted QMLE for the spatial autoregressive parameter," Papers 1909.08141, arXiv.org.
    7. Steven N. Durlauf & Yannis M. Ioannides, 2010. "Social Interactions," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 451-478, September.
    8. Gibbons, Steve & Overman, Henry G. & Patacchini, Eleonora, 2015. "Spatial Methods," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 115-168, Elsevier.
    9. Áureo de Paula, 2015. "Econometrics of network models," CeMMAP working papers CWP52/15, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    10. Kyriacou, Maria & Phillips, Peter C.B. & Rossi, Francesca, 2023. "Continuously Updated Indirect Inference In Heteroskedastic Spatial Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(1), pages 107-145, February.
    11. Shew Fan Liu & Zhenlin Yang, 2015. "Asymptotic Distribution and Finite Sample Bias Correction of QML Estimators for Spatial Error Dependence Model," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-36, May.
    12. Maria Kyriacou & Peter C. B. Phillips & Francesca Rossi, 2017. "Indirect inference in spatial autoregression," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 20(2), pages 168-189, June.
    13. Gupta, Abhimanyu & Robinson, Peter M., 2015. "Inference on higher-order spatial autoregressive models with increasingly many parameters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 186(1), pages 19-31.
    14. Martellosio, Federico, 2008. "Testing for spatial autocorrelation: the regressors that make the power disappear," MPRA Paper 10542, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Kapoor, Mudit & Kelejian, Harry H. & Prucha, Ingmar R., 2007. "Panel data models with spatially correlated error components," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 97-130, September.
    16. Liangjun Su & Xi Qu, 2017. "Specification Test for Spatial Autoregressive Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(4), pages 572-584, October.
    17. Kripfganz, Sebastian, 2014. "Unconditional Transformed Likelihood Estimation of Time-Space Dynamic Panel Data Models," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100604, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    18. Kuersteiner, Guido M. & Prucha, Ingmar R. & Zeng, Ying, 2023. "Efficient peer effects estimators with group effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 2155-2194.
    19. Topa, Giorgio & Zenou, Yves, 2015. "Neighborhood and Network Effects," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 561-624, Elsevier.
    20. Boucher, Vincent & Fortin, Bernard, 2015. "Some Challenges in the Empirics of the Effects of Networks," IZA Discussion Papers 8896, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:azt:cemmap:44/13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dermot Watson (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifsssuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.