IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2310.03694.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

What would it cost to connect the unconnected? Estimating global universal broadband infrastructure investment

Author

Listed:
  • Edward J. Oughton
  • David Amaglobeli
  • Marian Moszoro

Abstract

Roughly 3 billion citizens remain offline, equating to approximately 40 percent of the global population. Therefore, providing Internet connectivity is an essential part of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) (Goal 9). In this paper a high-resolution global model is developed to evaluate the necessary investment requirements to achieve affordable universal broadband. The results indicate that approximately $418 billion needs to be mobilized to connect all unconnected citizens globally (targeting 40-50 GB/Month per user with 95 percent reliability). The bulk of additional investment is for emerging market economies (73 percent) and low-income developing countries (24 percent). To our knowledge, the paper contributes the first high-resolution global assessment which quantifies universal broadband investment at the sub-national level to achieve SDG Goal 9.

Suggested Citation

  • Edward J. Oughton & David Amaglobeli & Marian Moszoro, 2023. "What would it cost to connect the unconnected? Estimating global universal broadband infrastructure investment," Papers 2310.03694, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2310.03694
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2310.03694
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Edward J. Oughton & William Lehr, 2022. "Surveying 5G Techno-Economic Research to Inform the Evaluation of 6G Wireless Technologies," Papers 2201.02272, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    2. Prieger, James E., 2013. "The broadband digital divide and the economic benefits of mobile broadband for rural areas," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 483-502.
    3. Hussain, Ammar & Batool, Irem & Akbar, Minhas & Nazir, Marina, 2021. "Is ICT an enduring driver of economic growth? Evidence from South Asian economies," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(8).
    4. Menzie D. Chinn & Robert W. Fairlie, 2007. "The determinants of the global digital divide: a cross-country analysis of computer and internet penetration," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 59(1), pages 16-44, January.
    5. Jung, Juan & López-Bazo, Enrique, 2020. "On the regional impact of broadband on productivity: The case of Brazil," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(1).
    6. Copestake, Alexander & Estefania-Flores, Julia & Furceri, Davide, 2024. "Digitalization and resilience," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(3).
    7. Ogutu B. Osoro & Edward J. Oughton & Andrew R. Wilson & Akhil Rao, 2023. "Sustainability assessment of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite broadband megaconstellations," Papers 2309.02338, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
    8. Mr. Emre Alper & Michal Miktus, 2019. "Bridging the Mobile Digital Divide in Sub-Saharan Africa: Costing under Demographic Change and Urbanization," IMF Working Papers 2019/249, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Szász, Levente & Bálint, Csaba & Csíki, Ottó & Nagy, Bálint Zsolt & Rácz, Béla-Gergely & Csala, Dénes & Harris, Lloyd C., 2022. "The impact of COVID-19 on the evolution of online retail: The pandemic as a window of opportunity," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    10. Rendon Schneir, Juan & Xiong, Yupeng, 2016. "A cost study of fixed broadband access networks for rural areas," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(8), pages 755-773.
    11. Lehtonen, Olli, 2020. "Population grid-based assessment of the impact of broadband expansion on population development in rural areas," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(10).
    12. Christos Genakos & Tommaso Valletti & Frank Verboven, 2018. "Evaluating market consolidation in mobile communications," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 33(93), pages 45-100.
    13. Barbara Baarsma & Jesse Groenewegen, 2021. "Correction to: COVID-19 and the Demand for Online Grocery Shopping: Empirical Evidence from the Netherlands," De Economist, Springer, vol. 169(4), pages 423-426, November.
    14. George S. Ford & Thomas M. Koutsky, 2005. "Broadband And Economic Development: A Municipal Case Study From Florida," Review of Urban & Regional Development Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 216-229, November.
    15. Sawng, Yeong-wha & Kim, Pang-ryong & Park, JiYoung, 2021. "ICT investment and GDP growth: Causality analysis for the case of Korea," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(7).
    16. Manlove, Jacob & Whitacre, Brian, 2019. "An evaluation of the Connected Nation broadband adoption program," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 1-1.
    17. Prado, Tiago S. & Bauer, Johannes M., 2021. "Improving broadband policy design using market data: A general framework and an application to Brazil," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(4).
    18. Oughton, Edward J. & Comini, Niccolò & Foster, Vivien & Hall, Jim W., 2022. "Policy choices can help keep 4G and 5G universal broadband affordable," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    19. Hung‐Hao Chang & Chad D. Meyerhoefer, 2021. "COVID‐19 and the Demand for Online Food Shopping Services: Empirical Evidence from Taiwan," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(2), pages 448-465, March.
    20. Rendon Schneir, Juan & Ajibulu, Ade & Konstantinou, Konstantinos & Bradford, Julie & Zimmermann, Gerd & Droste, Heinz & Canto, Rafael, 2019. "A business case for 5G mobile broadband in a dense urban area," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 1-1.
    21. Karim, Mohammed Shamsul & Nahar, Sharmin & Demirbag, Mehmet, 2022. "Resource-Based Perspective on ICT Use and Firm Performance: A Meta-analysis Investigating the Moderating Role of Cross-Country ICT Development Status," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    22. Brian Whitacre, 2008. "Factors influencing the temporal diffusion of broadband adoption: evidence from Oklahoma," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 42(3), pages 661-679, September.
    23. Yoo, Christopher S. & Lambert, Jesse & Pfenninger, Timothy P., 2022. "Municipal fiber in the United States: A financial assessment," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(5).
    24. Lledó, Victor & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos, 2013. "Fiscal Policy Implementation in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 79-91.
    25. Lehr, William & Queder, Fabian & Haucap, Justus, 2021. "5G: A new future for Mobile Network Operators, or not?," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(3).
    26. Mr. Emre Alper & Michal Miktus, 2019. "Digital Connectivity in sub-Saharan Africa: A Comparative Perspective," IMF Working Papers 2019/210, International Monetary Fund.
    27. Nordine Abidi & Mehdi El Herradi & Sahra Sakha, 2022. "Digitalization and Resilience: Firm-level Evidence During the COVID-19 Pandemic," IMF Working Papers 2022/034, International Monetary Fund.
    28. Briglauer, Wolfgang & Dürr, Niklas & Gugler, Klaus, 2021. "A retrospective study on the regional benefits and spillover effects of high-speed broadband networks: Evidence from German counties," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    29. Koutroumpis, Pantelis, 2019. "The economic impact of broadband: Evidence from OECD countries," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    30. Falk, Martin & Hagsten, Eva, 2021. "Impact of high-speed broadband access on local establishment dynamics," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(4).
    31. Barbara Baarsma & Jesse Groenewegen, 2021. "COVID-19 and the Demand for Online Grocery Shopping: Empirical Evidence from the Netherlands," De Economist, Springer, vol. 169(4), pages 407-421, November.
    32. Bertschek Irene & Briglauer Wolfgang & Hüschelrath Kai & Kauf Benedikt & Niebel Thomas, 2015. "The Economic Impacts of Broadband Internet: A Survey," Review of Network Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(4), pages 201-227, December.
    33. Hasbi, Maude & Dubus, Antoine, 2020. "Determinants of mobile broadband use in developing economies: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(5).
    34. Lythreatis, Sophie & Singh, Sanjay Kumar & El-Kassar, Abdul-Nasser, 2022. "The digital divide: A review and future research agenda," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    35. Wolfgang Briglauer & Klaus Gugler, 2019. "Go for Gigabit? First Evidence on Economic Benefits of High‐speed Broadband Technologies in Europe," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(5), pages 1071-1090, September.
    36. Oughton, Edward J. & Lehr, William & Katsaros, Konstantinos & Selinis, Ioannis & Bubley, Dean & Kusuma, Julius, 2021. "Revisiting Wireless Internet Connectivity: 5G vs Wi-Fi 6," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(5).
    37. Lobo, Bento J. & Alam, Md Rafayet & Whitacre, Brian E., 2020. "Broadband speed and unemployment rates: Data and measurement issues," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(1).
    38. del Portillo, Inigo & Eiskowitz, Skylar & Crawley, Edward F. & Cameron, Bruce G., 2021. "Connecting the other half: Exploring options for the 50% of the population unconnected to the internet," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(3).
    39. Edquist, Harald & Goodridge, Peter & Haskel, Jonathan & Li, Xuan & Lindquist, Edward, 2018. "How important are mobile broadband networks for the global economic development?," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 16-29.
    40. Abrardi, Laura & Cambini, Carlo, 2019. "Ultra-fast broadband investment and adoption: A survey," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 183-198.
    41. Ioannou, Nikos & Logothetis, Vangelis & Petre, Konstantin & Tselekounis, Markos & Chipouras, Aris & Katsianis, Dimitris & Varoutas, Dimitris, 2021. "Network modeling approaches for calculating wholesale NGA prices: A full comparison based on the Greek fixed broadband market," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(9).
    42. DeStefano, Timothy & Kneller, Richard & Timmis, Jonathan, 2018. "Broadband infrastructure, ICT use and firm performance: Evidence for UK firms," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 110-139.
    43. Nina Czernich & Oliver Falck & Tobias Kretschmer & Ludger Woessmann, 2011. "Broadband Infrastructure and Economic Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(552), pages 505-532, May.
    44. Edward J. Oughton & Ashutosh Jha, 2021. "Supportive 5G Infrastructure Policies are Essential for Universal 6G: Assessment using an Open-source Techno-economic Simulation Model utilizing Remote Sensing," Papers 2102.08086, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2021.
    45. Liu, Chun & Wang, Lian, 2021. "Who is left behind? Exploring the characteristics of China's broadband non-adopting families," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(9).
    46. Kongaut, Chatchai & Bohlin, Erik, 2014. "Unbundling and infrastructure competition for broadband adoption: Implications for NGA regulation," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 760-770.
    47. Lee, Hyeongjik & Jeong, Seonkoo & Lee, Kwanghee, 2021. "Estimating the deployment costs of broadband universal service via fiber networks in Korea," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(4).
    48. Stamopoulos, Dimitrios & Dimas, Petros & Tsakanikas, Aggelos, 2022. "Exploring the structural effects of the ICT sector in the Greek economy: A quantitative approach based on input-output and network analysis," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(7).
    49. Purva Khera & Stephanie Ng & Sumiko Ogawa & Ratna Sahay, 2022. "Measuring Digital Financial Inclusion in Emerging Market and Developing Economies: A New Index," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 17(2), pages 213-230, July.
    50. Rosston, Gregory L. & Wallsten, Scott J., 2020. "Increasing low-income broadband adoption through private incentives," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(9).
    51. Vu, Khuong & Hanafizadeh, Payam & Bohlin, Erik, 2020. "ICT as a driver of economic growth: A survey of the literature and directions for future research," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(2).
    52. Strover, Sharon & Riedl, Martin J. & Dickey, Selena, 2021. "Scoping new policy frameworks for local and community broadband networks," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(10).
    53. Felix F. Simione & Yiruo Li, 2021. "The Macroeconomic Impacts of Digitalization in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Submarine Cables," IMF Working Papers 2021/110, International Monetary Fund.
    54. Isley, Catherine & Low, Sarah A., 2022. "Broadband adoption and availability: Impacts on rural employment during COVID-19," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(7).
    55. Forge, Simon & Vu, Khuong, 2020. "Forming a 5G strategy for developing countries: A note for policy makers," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(7).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Oughton, Edward J. & Comini, Niccolò & Foster, Vivien & Hall, Jim W., 2022. "Policy choices can help keep 4G and 5G universal broadband affordable," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    2. Biedny, Christina & Whitacre, Brian & Gallardo, Roberto, 2022. "Do ‘dig once’ and permitting policies improve fiber availability?," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(5).
    3. Abrardi, Laura & Sabatino, Lorien, 2023. "Ultra-broadband investment and economic resilience: Evidence from the Covid-19 pandemic," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(2).
    4. Edquist, Harald, 2022. "The economic impact of mobile broadband speed," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(5).
    5. Falk, Martin & Hagsten, Eva, 2021. "Impact of high-speed broadband access on local establishment dynamics," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(4).
    6. Briglauer, Wolfgang & Dürr, Niklas & Gugler, Klaus, 2021. "A retrospective study on the regional benefits and spillover effects of high-speed broadband networks: Evidence from German counties," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    7. Yifeng Philip Chen & Edward J. Oughton & Jakub Zagdanski & Maggie Mo Jia & Peter Tyler, 2023. "Crowdsourced data indicates broadband has a positive impact on local business creation," Papers 2308.14734, arXiv.org.
    8. Philip Chen & Edward J Oughton & Pete Tyler & Mo Jia & Jakub Zagdanski, 2020. "Evaluating the impact of next generation broadband on local business creation," Papers 2010.14113, arXiv.org.
    9. Briglauer, Wolfgang & Cambini, Carlo & Gugler, Klaus, 2023. "Economic benefits of high-speed broadband network coverage and service adoption: Evidence from OECD member states," Research Papers 23, EcoAustria – Institute for Economic Research.
    10. Edward J Oughton & Niccol`o Comini & Vivien Foster & Jim W Hall, 2021. "Policy choices can help keep 4G and 5G universal broadband affordable," Papers 2101.07820, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
    11. Lee, Hyeongjik & Jeong, Seonkoo & Lee, Kwanghee, 2023. "The South Korean case of deploying rural broadband via fiber networks by implementing universal service obligation and public-private partnership based project," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(3).
    12. Briglauer, Wolfgang & Stocker, Volker, 2020. "Bedeutung digitaler Infrastrukturen und Dienste und Maßnahmen zur Förderung der Resilienz in Krisenzeiten," Policy Notes 42, EcoAustria – Institute for Economic Research.
    13. Ajoy Ketan Sarangi & Rudra Prakash Pradhan, 2020. "ICT infrastructure and economic growth: a critical assessment and some policy implications," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 47(4), pages 363-383, December.
    14. Briglauer, Wolfgang & Köppl-Turyna, Monika & Schwarzbauer, Wolfgang & Bittó, Virág, 2023. "Evaluating the effects of ICT core elements on CO2 emissions: Recent evidence from OECD countries," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(8).
    15. Whitacre, Brian & Gallardo, Roberto, 2020. "State broadband policy: Impacts on availability," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(9).
    16. Niu, Geng & Jin, XiaoShu & Wang, Qi & Zhou, Yang, 2022. "Broadband infrastructure and digital financial inclusion in rural China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    17. Appiah-Otoo, Isaac & Song, Na, 2021. "The impact of ICT on economic growth-Comparing rich and poor countries," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(2).
    18. Ndubuisi, Gideon & Otioma, Chuks & Owusu, Solomon & Tetteh, Godsway Korku, 2022. "ICTs quality and technical efficiency: An empirical analysis," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(10).
    19. Wolfgang Briglauer & Michał Grajek, 2021. "Effectiveness and efficiency of state aid for new broadband networks: Evidence from OECD member states," ESMT Research Working Papers ESMT-21-01, ESMT European School of Management and Technology.
    20. Abdulqadir, Idris A. & Asongu, Simplice A., 2022. "The asymmetric effect of internet access on economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 44-61.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2310.03694. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.