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Coherence without Rationality at the Zero Lower Bound

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  • Guido Ascari
  • Sophocles Mavroeidis
  • Nigel McClung

Abstract

Standard rational expectations models with an occasionally binding zero lower bound constraint either admit no solutions (incoherence) or multiple solutions (incompleteness). This paper shows that deviations from full-information rational expectations mitigate concerns about incoherence and incompleteness. Models with no rational expectations equilibria admit self-confirming equilibria involving the use of simple mis-specified forecasting models. Completeness and coherence is restored if expectations are adaptive or if agents are less forward-looking due to some information or behavioral friction. In the case of incompleteness, the E-stability criterion selects an equilibrium.

Suggested Citation

  • Guido Ascari & Sophocles Mavroeidis & Nigel McClung, 2022. "Coherence without Rationality at the Zero Lower Bound," Papers 2208.02073, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2208.02073
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    JEL classification:

    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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