IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2204.05926.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Ensemble learning for portfolio valuation and risk management

Author

Listed:
  • Lotfi Boudabsa
  • Damir Filipovi'c

Abstract

We introduce an ensemble learning method for dynamic portfolio valuation and risk management building on regression trees. We learn the dynamic value process of a derivative portfolio from a finite sample of its cumulative cash flow. The estimator is given in closed form. The method is fast and accurate, and scales well with sample size and path space dimension. The method can also be applied to Bermudan style options. Numerical experiments show good results in moderate dimension problems.

Suggested Citation

  • Lotfi Boudabsa & Damir Filipovi'c, 2022. "Ensemble learning for portfolio valuation and risk management," Papers 2204.05926, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2204.05926
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2204.05926
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 113-147.
    2. Michael B. Gordy & Sandeep Juneja, 2010. "Nested Simulation in Portfolio Risk Measurement," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(10), pages 1833-1848, October.
    3. Alexander J. McNeil & Rüdiger Frey & Paul Embrechts, 2015. "Quantitative Risk Management: Concepts, Techniques and Tools Revised edition," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 2, number 10496.
    4. Archer, Kellie J. & Kimes, Ryan V., 2008. "Empirical characterization of random forest variable importance measures," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 2249-2260, January.
    5. Lotfi Boudabsa & Damir Filipović, 2022. "Machine learning with kernels for portfolio valuation and risk management," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 131-172, April.
    6. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    7. Wei-Yin Loh, 2014. "Fifty Years of Classification and Regression Trees," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 82(3), pages 329-348, December.
    8. Mark Broadie & Yiping Du & Ciamac C. Moallemi, 2015. "Risk Estimation via Regression," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 63(5), pages 1077-1097, October.
    9. Ludovic Goudenège & Andrea Molent & Antonino Zanette, 2020. "Machine learning for pricing American options in high-dimensional Markovian and non-Markovian models," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 573-591, April.
    10. Gérard Biau & Erwan Scornet, 2016. "Rejoinder on: A random forest guided tour," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 25(2), pages 264-268, June.
    11. Scornet, Erwan, 2016. "On the asymptotics of random forests," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 72-83.
    12. Gérard Biau & Erwan Scornet, 2016. "A random forest guided tour," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 25(2), pages 197-227, June.
    13. Mathieu Cambou & Damir Filipović, 2017. "Model Uncertainty And Scenario Aggregation," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 534-567, April.
    14. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt43n1k4jb, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    15. Paul Embrechts, 2009. "Copulas: A Personal View," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 639-650, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Patrick Cheridito & John Ery & Mario V. Wüthrich, 2020. "Assessing Asset-Liability Risk with Neural Networks," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-17, February.
    2. Patrick Cheridito & John Ery & Mario V. Wuthrich, 2021. "Assessing asset-liability risk with neural networks," Papers 2105.12432, arXiv.org.
    3. Alessandro Gnoatto & Athena Picarelli & Christoph Reisinger, 2020. "Deep xVA solver -- A neural network based counterparty credit risk management framework," Papers 2005.02633, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2022.
    4. Mingbin Ben Feng & Eunhye Song, 2020. "Efficient Nested Simulation Experiment Design via the Likelihood Ratio Method," Papers 2008.13087, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    5. Lotfi Boudabsa & Damir Filipović, 2022. "Machine learning with kernels for portfolio valuation and risk management," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 131-172, April.
    6. Kun Zhang & Ben Mingbin Feng & Guangwu Liu & Shiyu Wang, 2022. "Sample Recycling for Nested Simulation with Application in Portfolio Risk Measurement," Papers 2203.15929, arXiv.org.
    7. Jiaming Mao & Jingzhi Xu, 2020. "Ensemble Learning with Statistical and Structural Models," Papers 2006.05308, arXiv.org.
    8. Cornelis S. L. de Graaf & Drona Kandhai & Christoph Reisinger, 2016. "Efficient exposure computation by risk factor decomposition," Papers 1608.01197, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2018.
    9. Lucio Fernandez‐Arjona & Damir Filipović, 2022. "A machine learning approach to portfolio pricing and risk management for high‐dimensional problems," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(4), pages 982-1019, October.
    10. Emilio Carrizosa & Cristina Molero-Río & Dolores Romero Morales, 2021. "Mathematical optimization in classification and regression trees," TOP: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 29(1), pages 5-33, April.
    11. Hongjun Ha & Daniel Bauer, 2022. "A least-squares Monte Carlo approach to the estimation of enterprise risk," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 417-459, July.
    12. Fort Gersende & Gobet Emmanuel & Moulines Eric, 2017. "MCMC design-based non-parametric regression for rare event. Application to nested risk computations," Monte Carlo Methods and Applications, De Gruyter, vol. 23(1), pages 21-42, March.
    13. L. Jeff Hong & Sandeep Juneja & Guangwu Liu, 2017. "Kernel Smoothing for Nested Estimation with Application to Portfolio Risk Measurement," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 65(3), pages 657-673, June.
    14. Benjamin David, 2017. "Model economic phenomena with CART and Random Forest algorithms," Working Papers hal-04141619, HAL.
    15. Guangxin Jiang & L. Jeff Hong & Barry L. Nelson, 2020. "Online Risk Monitoring Using Offline Simulation," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 32(2), pages 356-375, April.
    16. Benjamin David, 2017. "Model economic phenomena with CART and Random Forest algorithms," EconomiX Working Papers 2017-46, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    17. Feng, Ben Mingbin & Li, Johnny Siu-Hang & Zhou, Kenneth Q., 2022. "Green nested simulation via likelihood ratio: Applications to longevity risk management," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 285-301.
    18. Fabian Dickmann & Nikolaus Schweizer, 2014. "Faster Comparison of Stopping Times by Nested Conditional Monte Carlo," Papers 1402.0243, arXiv.org.
    19. Stentoft, Lars, 2005. "Pricing American options when the underlying asset follows GARCH processes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 576-611, September.
    20. Lars Stentoft, 2008. "American Option Pricing Using GARCH Models and the Normal Inverse Gaussian Distribution," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(4), pages 540-582, Fall.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2204.05926. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.