IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2112.09959.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Mean-Covariance Robust Risk Measurement

Author

Listed:
  • Viet Anh Nguyen
  • Soroosh Shafiee
  • Damir Filipovi'c
  • Daniel Kuhn

Abstract

We introduce a universal framework for mean-covariance robust risk measurement and portfolio optimization. We model uncertainty in terms of the Gelbrich distance on the mean-covariance space, along with prior structural information about the population distribution. Our approach is related to the theory of optimal transport and exhibits superior statistical and computational properties than existing models. We find that, for a large class of risk measures, mean-covariance robust portfolio optimization boils down to the Markowitz model, subject to a regularization term given in closed form. This includes the finance standards, value-at-risk and conditional value-at-risk, and can be solved highly efficiently.

Suggested Citation

  • Viet Anh Nguyen & Soroosh Shafiee & Damir Filipovi'c & Daniel Kuhn, 2021. "Mean-Covariance Robust Risk Measurement," Papers 2112.09959, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2112.09959
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2112.09959
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ioana Popescu, 2005. "A Semidefinite Programming Approach to Optimal-Moment Bounds for Convex Classes of Distributions," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 30(3), pages 632-657, August.
    2. Best, Michael J & Grauer, Robert R, 1991. "On the Sensitivity of Mean-Variance-Efficient Portfolios to Changes in Asset Means: Some Analytical and Computational Results," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(2), pages 315-342.
    3. Acerbi, Carlo, 2002. "Spectral measures of risk: A coherent representation of subjective risk aversion," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1505-1518, July.
    4. Yaari, Menahem E, 1987. "The Dual Theory of Choice under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(1), pages 95-115, January.
    5. Ledoit, Olivier & Wolf, Michael, 2003. "Improved estimation of the covariance matrix of stock returns with an application to portfolio selection," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(5), pages 603-621, December.
    6. Alexander Shapiro, 2013. "On Kusuoka Representation of Law Invariant Risk Measures," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 38(1), pages 142-152, February.
    7. Laurent El Ghaoui & Maksim Oks & Francois Oustry, 2003. "Worst-Case Value-At-Risk and Robust Portfolio Optimization: A Conic Programming Approach," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 51(4), pages 543-556, August.
    8. Henry Lam & Clementine Mottet, 2017. "Tail Analysis Without Parametric Models: A Worst-Case Perspective," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 65(6), pages 1696-1711, December.
    9. David Wozabal, 2014. "Robustifying Convex Risk Measures for Linear Portfolios: A Nonparametric Approach," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 62(6), pages 1302-1315, December.
    10. Ravi Jagannathan & Tongshu Ma, 2003. "Risk Reduction in Large Portfolios: Why Imposing the Wrong Constraints Helps," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(4), pages 1651-1683, August.
    11. Karthik Natarajan & Melvyn Sim & Joline Uichanco, 2018. "Asymmetry and Ambiguity in Newsvendor Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(7), pages 3146-3167, July.
    12. Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen & Jean‐Marc Eber & David Heath, 1999. "Coherent Measures of Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 203-228, July.
    13. Merton, Robert C, 1969. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 247-257, August.
    14. Erick Delage & Yinyu Ye, 2010. "Distributionally Robust Optimization Under Moment Uncertainty with Application to Data-Driven Problems," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 58(3), pages 595-612, June.
    15. Cambanis, Stamatis & Huang, Steel & Simons, Gordon, 1981. "On the theory of elliptically contoured distributions," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 368-385, September.
    16. Victor DeMiguel & Lorenzo Garlappi & Francisco J. Nogales & Raman Uppal, 2009. "A Generalized Approach to Portfolio Optimization: Improving Performance by Constraining Portfolio Norms," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(5), pages 798-812, May.
    17. Karthik Natarajan & Dessislava Pachamanova & Melvyn Sim, 2008. "Incorporating Asymmetric Distributional Information in Robust Value-at-Risk Optimization," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(3), pages 573-585, March.
    18. Wolfram Wiesemann & Daniel Kuhn & Melvyn Sim, 2014. "Distributionally Robust Convex Optimization," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 62(6), pages 1358-1376, December.
    19. Georg Pflug & David Wozabal, 2007. "Ambiguity in portfolio selection," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(4), pages 435-442.
    20. Napat Rujeerapaiboon & Daniel Kuhn & Wolfram Wiesemann, 2018. "Chebyshev Inequalities for Products of Random Variables," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 43(3), pages 887-918, August.
    21. Ravi Jagannathan & Tongshu Ma, 2003. "Risk Reduction in Large Portfolios: Why Imposing the Wrong Constraints Helps," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(4), pages 1651-1684, August.
    22. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April.
    23. Pflug, Georg Ch. & Pichler, Alois & Wozabal, David, 2012. "The 1/N investment strategy is optimal under high model ambiguity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 410-417.
    24. Xuan Vinh Doan & Xiaobo Li & Karthik Natarajan, 2015. "Robustness to Dependency in Portfolio Optimization Using Overlapping Marginals," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 63(6), pages 1468-1488, December.
    25. Joel Goh & Melvyn Sim, 2010. "Distributionally Robust Optimization and Its Tractable Approximations," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 58(4-part-1), pages 902-917, August.
    26. Daniel Ellsberg, 1961. "Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 75(4), pages 643-669.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Napat Rujeerapaiboon & Daniel Kuhn & Wolfram Wiesemann, 2016. "Robust Growth-Optimal Portfolios," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(7), pages 2090-2109, July.
    2. Yuki Shigeta, 2016. "Optimality of Naive Investment Strategies in Dynamic MeanVariance Optimization Problems with Multiple Priors," Discussion papers e-16-004, Graduate School of Economics , Kyoto University.
    3. Maillet, Bertrand & Tokpavi, Sessi & Vaucher, Benoit, 2015. "Global minimum variance portfolio optimisation under some model risk: A robust regression-based approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 244(1), pages 289-299.
    4. Kolm, Petter N. & Tütüncü, Reha & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2014. "60 Years of portfolio optimization: Practical challenges and current trends," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 234(2), pages 356-371.
    5. David Wozabal, 2014. "Robustifying Convex Risk Measures for Linear Portfolios: A Nonparametric Approach," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 62(6), pages 1302-1315, December.
    6. Plachel, Lukas, 2019. "A unified model for regularized and robust portfolio optimization," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    7. Nilay Noyan & Gábor Rudolf & Miguel Lejeune, 2022. "Distributionally Robust Optimization Under a Decision-Dependent Ambiguity Set with Applications to Machine Scheduling and Humanitarian Logistics," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 34(2), pages 729-751, March.
    8. Zhi Chen & Weijun Xie, 2021. "Regret in the Newsvendor Model with Demand and Yield Randomness," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 30(11), pages 4176-4197, November.
    9. Zhu, Bo & Zhang, Tianlun, 2021. "Long-term wealth growth portfolio allocation under parameter uncertainty: A non-conservative robust approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    10. Zhi Chen & Melvyn Sim & Huan Xu, 2019. "Distributionally Robust Optimization with Infinitely Constrained Ambiguity Sets," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 67(5), pages 1328-1344, September.
    11. Viet Anh Nguyen & Fan Zhang & Shanshan Wang & Jose Blanchet & Erick Delage & Yinyu Ye, 2021. "Robustifying Conditional Portfolio Decisions via Optimal Transport," Papers 2103.16451, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2024.
    12. Viet Anh Nguyen & Daniel Kuhn & Peyman Mohajerin Esfahani, 2018. "Distributionally Robust Inverse Covariance Estimation: The Wasserstein Shrinkage Estimator," Papers 1805.07194, arXiv.org.
    13. L. Jeff Hong & Zhiyuan Huang & Henry Lam, 2021. "Learning-Based Robust Optimization: Procedures and Statistical Guarantees," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(6), pages 3447-3467, June.
    14. Maria Scutellà & Raffaella Recchia, 2013. "Robust portfolio asset allocation and risk measures," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 204(1), pages 145-169, April.
    15. Carroll, Rachael & Conlon, Thomas & Cotter, John & Salvador, Enrique, 2017. "Asset allocation with correlation: A composite trade-off," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 262(3), pages 1164-1180.
    16. Liu, Haiyan & Mao, Tiantian, 2022. "Distributionally robust reinsurance with Value-at-Risk and Conditional Value-at-Risk," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 393-417.
    17. Postek, K.S. & den Hertog, D. & Melenberg, B., 2015. "Computationally Tractable Counterparts of Distributionally Robust Constraints on Risk Measures (revision of CentER DP 2014-031)," Discussion Paper 2015-047, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    18. Shao, Hui & Zhang, Zhe George, 2023. "Distortion risk measure under parametric ambiguity," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 311(3), pages 1159-1172.
    19. Huyên Pham & Xiaoli Wei & Chao Zhou, 2022. "Portfolio diversification and model uncertainty: A robust dynamic mean‐variance approach," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 349-404, January.
    20. Goh, Joel Weiqiang & Lim, Kian Guan & Sim, Melvyn & Zhang, Weina, 2012. "Portfolio value-at-risk optimization for asymmetrically distributed asset returns," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 221(2), pages 397-406.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2112.09959. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.