IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2008.10967.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

An energy-based macroeconomic model validated by global historical series since 1820

Author

Listed:
  • Herve Bercegol
  • Henri Benisty

Abstract

Global historical series spanning the last two centuries recently became available for primary energy consumption (PEC) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Based on a thorough analysis of the data, we propose a new, simple macroeconomic model whereby physical power is fueling economic power. From 1820 to 1920, the linearity between global PEC and world GDP justifies basic equations where, originally, PEC incorporates unskilled human labor that consumes and converts energy from food. In a consistent model, both physical capital and human capital are fed by PEC and represent a form of stored energy. In the following century, from 1920 to 2016, GDP grows quicker than PEC. Periods of quasi-linearity of the two variables are separated by distinct jumps, which can be interpreted as radical technology shifts. The GDP to PEC ratio accumulates game-changing innovation, at an average growth rate proportional to PEC. These results seed alternative strategies for modeling and for political management of the climate crisis and the energy transition.

Suggested Citation

  • Herve Bercegol & Henri Benisty, 2020. "An energy-based macroeconomic model validated by global historical series since 1820," Papers 2008.10967, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2020.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2008.10967
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2008.10967
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paolo Malanima, 2020. "The limiting factor: energy, growth, and divergence, 1820–1913," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 73(2), pages 486-512, May.
    2. Astrid Kander & Paolo Malanima & Paul Warde, 2015. "Power to the People: Energy in Europe over the Last Five Centuries," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10138-2.
    3. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 71-102, October.
    4. Stern, David I., 1993. "Energy and economic growth in the USA : A multivariate approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 137-150, April.
    5. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    6. Keen, Steve & Ayres, Robert U. & Standish, Russell, 2019. "A Note on the Role of Energy in Production," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 40-46.
    7. Souhil Harchaoui & Petros Chatzimpiros, 2019. "Energy, Nitrogen, and Farm Surplus Transitions in Agriculture from Historical Data Modeling. France, 1882–2013," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 23(2), pages 412-425, April.
    8. Hansen, Kenneth & Breyer, Christian & Lund, Henrik, 2019. "Status and perspectives on 100% renewable energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 471-480.
    9. Fouquet, Roger, 2016. "Lessons from energy history for climate policy: technological change, demand and economic development," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 67785, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bercegol, Hervé & Benisty, Henri, 2022. "An energy-based macroeconomic model validated by global historical series since 1820," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    2. Hervé Bercegol & H. Benisty, 2022. "An energy-based macroeconomic model validated by global historical series since 1820," Post-Print cea-03451983, HAL.
    3. Dakpogan, Arnaud & Smit, Eon, 2018. "The effect of electricity losses on GDP in Benin," MPRA Paper 89545, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. van de Klundert, T.C.M.J. & Smulders, J.A., 1991. "Reconstructing growth theory : A survey," Other publications TiSEM 19355c51-17eb-4d5d-aa66-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    5. Andersson, Fredrik N.G. & Edgerton, David L. & Opper, Sonja, 2013. "A Matter of Time: Revisiting Growth Convergence in China," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 239-251.
    6. B. Bhaskara Rao & Arusha Cooray, 2012. "How useful is growth literature for policies in the developing countries?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(6), pages 671-681, February.
    7. Berthelemy, Jean-claude & Soderling, Ludvig, 2001. "The Role of Capital Accumulation, Adjustment and Structural Change for Economic Take-Off: Empirical Evidence from African Growth Episodes," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 323-343, February.
    8. Simplice A. Asongu & Voxi Amavilah & Antonio R. Andrés, 2014. "Economic Implications of Business Dynamics for KE-Associated Economic Growth and Inclusive Development in African Countries," Research Africa Network Working Papers 14/023, Research Africa Network (RAN).
    9. I. Hakan Yetkiner, 2006. "Saglik ile Buyume," Ege Academic Review, Ege University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 6(2), pages 83-91.
    10. Patrik Hultberg & David Santandreu Calonge & Seong-Hee Kim, 2017. "Education policy in South Korea: A contemporary model of human capital accumulation?," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1389804-138, January.
    11. Pop Silaghi, Monica Ioana & Alexa, Diana & Jude, Cristina & Litan, Cristian, 2014. "Do business and public sector research and development expenditures contribute to economic growth in Central and Eastern European Countries? A dynamic panel estimation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 108-119.
    12. Charles R. Hulten & Robert M. Schwab, 1993. "Endogenous Growth, Public Capital, and the Convergence of Regional Manufacturing Industries," NBER Working Papers 4538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Weisbrod, Julian & Vollmer, Sebastian & Holzmann, Hajo, 2007. "Perspectives on the World Income Distribution: Beyond Twin Peaks Towards Welfare Conclusions," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Göttingen 2007 32, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
    14. Duranton, Gilles & Puga, Diego, 2014. "The Growth of Cities," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 5, pages 781-853, Elsevier.
    15. Folster, Stefan & Henrekson, Magnus, 1999. "Growth and the public sector: a critique of the critics," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 337-358, June.
    16. Kuo-Hsing Kuo & Cheng-Te Lee, 2017. "Economic Integration, Growth and Income Distribution," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(1), pages 59-71, March.
    17. Gundlach, Erich, 1998. "Das Wirtschaftswachstum der Nationen im zwanzigsten Jahrhundert," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 1756, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    18. Mukhopadhyay, Jyoti Prasad & Banik, Nilanjan, 2013. "The Red Corridor Region of India: What Do the Data Tell Us?," MPRA Paper 58616, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Sefa Awaworyi Churchill & Mehmet Ugur & Siew Ling Yew, 2017. "Does Government Size Affect Per-Capita Income Growth? A Hierarchical Meta-Regression Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(300), pages 142-171, March.
    20. Hans-Friedrich Eckey & Reinhold Kosfeld & Matthias Türck, 2007. "Regionale Entwicklung mit und ohne räumliche Spillover-Effekte," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 27(1), pages 23-42, February.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2008.10967. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.