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Interacting Regional Policies in Containing a Disease

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  • Arun G. Chandrasekhar
  • Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham
  • Matthew O. Jackson
  • Samuel Thau

Abstract

Regional quarantine policies, in which a portion of a population surrounding infections are locked down, are an important tool to contain disease. However, jurisdictional governments -- such as cities, counties, states, and countries -- act with minimal coordination across borders. We show that a regional quarantine policy's effectiveness depends upon whether (i) the network of interactions satisfies a balanced-growth condition, (ii) infections have a short delay in detection, and (iii) the government has control over and knowledge of the necessary parts of the network (no leakage of behaviors). As these conditions generally fail to be satisfied, especially when interactions cross borders, we show that substantial improvements are possible if governments are outward-looking and proactive: triggering quarantines in reaction to neighbors' infection rates, in some cases even before infections are detected internally. We also show that even a few lax governments -- those that wait for nontrivial internal infection rates before quarantining -- impose substantial costs on the whole system. Our results illustrate the importance of understanding contagion across policy borders and offer a starting point in designing proactive policies for decentralized jurisdictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Arun G. Chandrasekhar & Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham & Matthew O. Jackson & Samuel Thau, 2020. "Interacting Regional Policies in Containing a Disease," Papers 2008.10745, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2008.10745
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    Cited by:

    1. Coven, Joshua & Gupta, Arpit & Yao, Iris, 2023. "JUE Insight: Urban flight seeded the COVID-19 pandemic across the United States," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    2. Julliard, Christian & Shi, Ran & Yuan, Kathy, 2023. "The spread of COVID-19 in London: Network effects and optimal lockdowns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 2125-2154.

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