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A Risk Aware Two-Stage Market Mechanism for Electricity with Renewable Generation

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  • Nathan Dahlin
  • Rahul Jain

Abstract

Over the last few decades, electricity markets around the world have adopted multi-settlement structures, allowing for balancing of supply and demand as more accurate forecast information becomes available. Given increasing uncertainty due to adoption of renewables, more recent market design work has focused on optimization of expectation of some quantity, e.g. social welfare. However, social planners and policy makers are often risk averse, so that such risk neutral formulations do not adequately reflect prevailing attitudes towards risk, nor explain the decisions that follow. Hence we incorporate the commonly used risk measure conditional value at risk (CVaR) into the central planning objective, and study how a two-stage market operates when the individual generators are risk neutral. Our primary result is to show existence (by construction) of a sequential competitive equilibrium (SCEq) in this risk-aware two-stage market. Given equilibrium prices, we design a market mechanism which achieves social cost minimization assuming that agents are non strategic.

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  • Nathan Dahlin & Rahul Jain, 2020. "A Risk Aware Two-Stage Market Mechanism for Electricity with Renewable Generation," Papers 2003.06119, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2003.06119
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Bublitz, Andreas & Keles, Dogan & Zimmermann, Florian & Fraunholz, Christoph & Fichtner, Wolf, 2019. "A survey on electricity market design: Insights from theory and real-world implementations of capacity remuneration mechanisms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1059-1078.
    3. RALPH, Daniel & SMEERS, Yves, 2015. "Risk trading and endogenous probabilities in investment equilibria," LIDAM Reprints CORE 2727, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    4. Rockafellar, R. Tyrrell & Uryasev, Stanislav, 2002. "Conditional value-at-risk for general loss distributions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1443-1471, July.
    5. Gauthier DE MAERE D’AERTRYCKE & Andreas EHRENMANN & Yves SMEERS, 2017. "Investment with incomplete markets for risk: the need for long-term contracts," LIDAM Reprints CORE 2849, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
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