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Testing Ambiguity and Machina Preferences Within a Quantum-theoretic Framework for Decision-making

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Listed:
  • Diederik Aerts
  • Suzette Geriente
  • Catarina Moreira
  • Sandro Sozzo

Abstract

The Machina thought experiments pose to major non-expected utility models challenges that are similar to those posed by the Ellsberg thought experiments to subjective expected utility theory (SEUT). We test human choices in the `Ellsberg three-color example', confirming typical ambiguity aversion patterns, and the `Machina 50/51 and reflection examples', partially confirming the preferences hypothesized by Machina. Then, we show that a quantum-theoretic framework for decision-making under uncertainty recently elaborated by some of us allows faithful modeling of all data on the Ellsberg and Machina paradox situations. In the quantum-theoretic framework subjective probabilities are represented by quantum probabilities, while quantum state transformations enable representations of ambiguity aversion and subjective attitudes toward it.

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  • Diederik Aerts & Suzette Geriente & Catarina Moreira & Sandro Sozzo, 2017. "Testing Ambiguity and Machina Preferences Within a Quantum-theoretic Framework for Decision-making," Papers 1706.02168, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1706.02168
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Aurelien Baillon & Olivier L'Haridon & Laetitia Placido, 2011. "Ambiguity Models and the Machina Paradoxes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1547-1560, June.
    2. Diederik Aerts & Emmanuel Haven & Sandro Sozzo, 2016. "A Proposal to Extend Expected Utility in a Quantum Probabilistic Framework," Papers 1612.08583, arXiv.org.
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