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Tornadoes and related damage costs: statistical modeling with a semi-Markov approach

Author

Listed:
  • Chiara Corini
  • Guglielmo D'Amico
  • Filippo Petroni
  • Flavio Prattico
  • Raimondo Manca

Abstract

We propose a statistical approach to tornadoes modeling for predicting and simulating occurrences of tornadoes and accumulated cost distributions over a time interval. This is achieved by modeling the tornadoes intensity, measured with the Fujita scale, as a stochastic process. Since the Fujita scale divides tornadoes intensity into six states, it is possible to model the tornadoes intensity by using Markov and semi-Markov models. We demonstrate that the semi-Markov approach is able to reproduce the duration effect that is detected in tornadoes occurrence. The superiority of the semi-Markov model as compared to the Markov chain model is also affirmed by means of a statistical test of hypothesis. As an application we compute the expected value and the variance of the costs generated by the tornadoes over a given time interval in a given area. he paper contributes to the literature by demonstrating that semi-Markov models represent an effective tool for physical analysis of tornadoes as well as for the estimation of the economic damages to human things.

Suggested Citation

  • Chiara Corini & Guglielmo D'Amico & Filippo Petroni & Flavio Prattico & Raimondo Manca, 2015. "Tornadoes and related damage costs: statistical modeling with a semi-Markov approach," Papers 1503.05127, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1503.05127
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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1503.05127
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    Cited by:

    1. Brecht Verbeken & Marie-Anne Guerry, 2021. "Discrete Time Hybrid Semi-Markov Models in Manpower Planning," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(14), pages 1-13, July.

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