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News Cohesiveness: an Indicator of Systemic Risk in Financial Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Matija Piv{s}korec
  • Nino Antulov-Fantulin
  • Petra Kralj Novak
  • Igor Mozetiv{c}
  • Miha Grv{c}ar
  • Irena Vodenska
  • Tomislav v{S}muc

Abstract

Motivated by recent financial crises significant research efforts have been put into studying contagion effects and herding behaviour in financial markets. Much less has been said about influence of financial news on financial markets. We propose a novel measure of collective behaviour in financial news on the Web, News Cohesiveness Index (NCI), and show that it can be used as a systemic risk indicator. We evaluate the NCI on financial documents from large Web news sources on a daily basis from October 2011 to July 2013 and analyse the interplay between financial markets and financially related news. We hypothesized that strong cohesion in financial news reflects movements in the financial markets. Cohesiveness is more general and robust measure of systemic risk expressed in news, than measures based on simple occurrences of specific terms. Our results indicate that cohesiveness in the financial news is highly correlated with and driven by volatility on the financial markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Matija Piv{s}korec & Nino Antulov-Fantulin & Petra Kralj Novak & Igor Mozetiv{c} & Miha Grv{c}ar & Irena Vodenska & Tomislav v{S}muc, 2014. "News Cohesiveness: an Indicator of Systemic Risk in Financial Markets," Papers 1402.3483, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1402.3483
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk & Tiwari, Aviral, 2014. "Is Bitcoin business income or speculative bubble? Unconditional vs. conditional frequency domain analysis," MPRA Paper 59595, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. repec:pra:mprapa:58133 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2015. "What Does Bitcoin Look Like?," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 16(2), pages 449-492, November.
    5. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2015. "Is Bitcoin Business Income Or Speculative Foolery? New Ideas Through An Improved Frequency Domain Analysis," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(01), pages 1-23.
    6. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk, 2014. "What Bitcoin Looks Like?," MPRA Paper 58091, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk, 2014. "What Does Crypto-currency Look Like? Gaining Insight into Bitcoin Phenomenon," MPRA Paper 57907, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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