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A Note on Quasi-Maximum-Likelihood Estimation in Hidden Markov Models with Covariate-Dependent Transition Probabilities

Author

Listed:
  • Demian Pouzo

    (University of California)

  • Zacharias Psaradakis

    (University of London)

  • Martin Sola

    (Universidad Torcuato di Tella)

Abstract

We consider hidden Markov models with a discrete-valued regime sequence whose transition probabilities are covariate-dependent. We show that consistent estimation of the parameters of the conditional distribution of the observable variables is possible via quasi-maximum-likelihood based on a (misspecified) mixture model without Markov dependence. Some related numerical results are also discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Demian Pouzo & Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola, 2023. "A Note on Quasi-Maximum-Likelihood Estimation in Hidden Markov Models with Covariate-Dependent Transition Probabilities," Working Papers 234, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    • Handle: RePEc:aoz:wpaper:234
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    File URL: https://rednie.eco.unc.edu.ar/files/DT/234.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    2. Jin Seo Cho & Halbert White, 2007. "Testing for Regime Switching," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(6), pages 1671-1720, November.
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    4. Demian Pouzo & Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola, 2022. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Markov Regime‐Switching Models With Covariate‐Dependent Transition Probabilities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(4), pages 1681-1710, July.
    5. Engel, Charles & Hakkio, Craig S, 1996. "The Distribution of Exchange Rates in the EMS," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(1), pages 55-67, January.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consistency; covariate-dependent transition probabilities; hidden Markov model; mixture model; quasi-maximum-likelihood; misspecified model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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