IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/uersrr/340568.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Stocking Impact and Financial-Climate Risk of the Livestock Forage Disaster Program

Author

Listed:
  • Hrozencik, R. Aaron
  • Perez-Quesada, Gabriela
  • Bocinsky, Kyle

Abstract

Drought imposes significant costs on the U.S. agricultural sector, particularly for livestock producers who rely on precipitation to grow forage. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) administers several programs to mitigate the economic costs of drought. One of these programs is the USDA, Farm Service Agency’s (FSA) Livestock Forage Disaster Program (LFP), which provides payments to livestock producers impacted by drought. Program evaluation results suggest that producers in drought affected counties that received LFP payments achieved similar herd retention and liquidation outcomes as producers in less drought impacted counties that were ineligible for LFP payments. Simulation modeling results in this report suggest that LFP poses a financial-climate risk to the Federal budget. Depending on the future increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, annual Federal Government expenditures on LFP are projected to increase above the current average expenditures by 45–135 percent (in 2022 dollars) by 2100.

Suggested Citation

  • Hrozencik, R. Aaron & Perez-Quesada, Gabriela & Bocinsky, Kyle, 2024. "The Stocking Impact and Financial-Climate Risk of the Livestock Forage Disaster Program," Economic Research Report 340568, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:uersrr:340568
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.340568
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/340568/files/err-329.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.340568?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tianbao Zhao & Aiguo Dai, 2017. "Uncertainties in historical changes and future projections of drought. Part II: model-simulated historical and future drought changes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(3), pages 535-548, October.
    2. Baldwin, Katherine & Williams, Brian & Tsiboe, Francis & Effland, Anne & Turner, Dylan & Pratt, Bryan & Jones, Jordan & Toossi, Saied & Hodges, Leslie, 2023. "U.S. Agricultural Policy Review, 2021," USDA Miscellaneous 333549, United States Department of Agriculture.
    3. de Mello Luiz & Martinez-Vazquez Jorge, 2022. "Climate Change Implications for the Public Finances and Fiscal Policy: An Agenda for Future Research and Filling the Gaps in Scholarly Work," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 194-198, January.
    4. Crane-Droesch, Andrew & Marshall, Elizabeth & Rosch, Stephanie & Riddle, Anne & Cooper, Joseph & Wallander, Steven, 2019. "Climate Change and Agricultural Risk Management Into the 21st Century," Economic Research Report 292268, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    5. Leister, Amanda M. & Paarlberg, Philip L. & Lee, John G., 2015. "Dynamic Effects Of Drought On U.S. Crop And Livestock Sectors," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(2), pages 261-284, May.
    6. Joseph W. Glauber, 2013. "The Growth Of The Federal Crop Insurance Program, 1990--2011," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 95(2), pages 482-488.
    7. Dhoubhadel, Sunil P. & Azzam, Azzeddine M. & Stockton, Matthew C., 2015. "The Impact Of Biofuels Policy And Drought On The U.S. Grain And Livestock Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(1), pages 77-103, February.
    8. Countryman, Amanda M. & Paarlberg, Philip L. & Lee, John G., 2016. "Dynamic Effects of Drought on the U.S. Beef Supply Chain," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(3), pages 459-484, December.
    9. Baldwin, Katherine & Williams, Brian & Sichko, Christopher & Tsiboe, Francis & Toossi, Saied & Jones, Jordan W. & Turner, Dylan & Raszap Skorbiansky, Sharon, 2023. "U.S. Agricultural Policy Review, 2022," Economic Information Bulletin 339005, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    10. MacLachlan, Matthew & Ramos, Sean & Hungerford, Ashley & Edwards, Seanicaa, 2018. "Federal Natural Disaster Assistance Programs for Livestock Producers, 2008-16," Economic Information Bulletin 276251, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    11. Zachary H. Hoylman & R. Kyle Bocinsky & Kelsey G. Jencso, 2022. "Drought assessment has been outpaced by climate change: empirical arguments for a paradigm shift," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.
    12. Halvorsen, Robert & Palmquist, Raymond, 1980. "The Interpretation of Dummy Variables in Semilogarithmic Equations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 474-475, June.
    13. Ho, Daniel E. & Imai, Kosuke & King, Gary & Stuart, Elizabeth A., 2007. "Matching as Nonparametric Preprocessing for Reducing Model Dependence in Parametric Causal Inference," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 199-236, July.
    14. Athey, Susan & Imbens, Guido W., 2022. "Design-based analysis in Difference-In-Differences settings with staggered adoption," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 226(1), pages 62-79.
    15. King, Gary & Nielsen, Richard, 2019. "Why Propensity Scores Should Not Be Used for Matching," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(4), pages 435-454, October.
    16. Sun, Liyang & Abraham, Sarah, 2021. "Estimating dynamic treatment effects in event studies with heterogeneous treatment effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 175-199.
    17. Patalee, M.A. Buddhika & Tonsor, Glynn T., 2021. "Impact of weather on cow-calf industry locations and production in the United States," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    18. Seong Do Yun & Benjamin M. Gramig, 2019. "Agro-Climatic Data by County: A Spatially and Temporally Consistent U.S. Dataset for Agricultural Yields, Weather and Soils," Data, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-20, May.
    19. Yusuke Kuwayama & Alexandra Thompson & Richard Bernknopf & Benjamin Zaitchik & Peter Vail, 2019. "Estimating the Impact of Drought on Agriculture Using the U.S. Drought Monitor," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 101(1), pages 193-210.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hrozencik, Robert A. & Perez-Quesada, Gabriela, 2023. "Drought and the U.S. Livestock Sector: Assessing the Impact of the Livestock Forage Program," 2023 Annual Meeting, July 23-25, Washington D.C. 335468, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Bearzotti, Enia & Polanec, Sašo & Bartolj, Tjaša, 2023. "The Effects of Subsidies on Firm Size and Productivity," MPRA Paper 118490, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Jin, Zhangfeng & Zhang, Junsen, 2023. "Access to local citizenship and internal migration in a developing country: Evidence from a Hukou reform in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 181-215.
    4. Julie Gilles de la Londe & Anissa Afrite & Julien Mousquès, 2023. "How does the quality of care for type 2 diabetic patients benefit from GPs-nurses’ teamwork? A staggered difference-in-differences design based on a French pilot program," International Journal of Health Economics and Management, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 433-466, September.
    5. Mac Clay, Pablo & Börner, Jan & Sellare, Jorge, 2023. "Institutional and macroeconomic stability mediate the effect of auctions on renewable energy capacity," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    6. Matthieu Cassou & Julien Mousquès & Carine Franc, 2020. "General practitioners’ income and activity: the impact of multi-professional group practice in France," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 21(9), pages 1295-1315, December.
    7. Martin Huber, 2019. "An introduction to flexible methods for policy evaluation," Papers 1910.00641, arXiv.org.
    8. Michelle Marcus & Pedro H. C. Sant’Anna, 2021. "The Role of Parallel Trends in Event Study Settings: An Application to Environmental Economics," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(2), pages 235-275.
    9. Davide Viviano & Jelena Bradic, 2019. "Synthetic learner: model-free inference on treatments over time," Papers 1904.01490, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
    10. Rik Chakraborti & Gavin Roberts, 2023. "How price-gouging regulation undermined COVID-19 mitigation: county-level evidence of unintended consequences," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 196(1), pages 51-83, July.
    11. Han, Sukjin, 2021. "Identification in nonparametric models for dynamic treatment effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 132-147.
    12. Damian Clarke & Kathya Tapia-Schythe, 2021. "Implementing the panel event study," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 21(4), pages 853-884, December.
    13. Alexander Karaivanov & Dongwoo Kim & Shih En Lu & Hitoshi Shigeoka, 2022. "COVID-19 vaccination mandates and vaccine uptake," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 6(12), pages 1615-1624, December.
    14. Xin Nie & Jianxian Wu & Han Wang & Weijuan Li & Chengdao Huang & Lihua Li, 2022. "Contributing to carbon peak: Estimating the causal impact of eco‐industrial parks on low‐carbon development in China," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 26(4), pages 1578-1593, August.
    15. Sutirtha Bagchi & Libor Dušek, 2023. "Tax Withholding and the Size of Government," Villanova School of Business Department of Economics and Statistics Working Paper Series 59, Villanova School of Business Department of Economics and Statistics.
    16. Remi Jedwab & Felix Meier zu Selhausen & Alexander Moradi, 2022. "The economics of missionary expansion: evidence from Africa and implications for development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 149-192, June.
    17. Liyang Sun & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2022. "A Linear Panel Model with Heterogeneous Coefficients and Variation in Exposure," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 193-204, Fall.
    18. Christophe Bell'ego & David Benatia & Vincent Dortet-Bernardet, 2023. "The Chained Difference-in-Differences," Papers 2301.01085, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    19. Ashesh Rambachan & Jonathan Roth, 2020. "Design-Based Uncertainty for Quasi-Experiments," Papers 2008.00602, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    20. Banzhaf, H. Spencer & Mickey, Ryan & Patrick, Carlianne, 2021. "Age-based property tax exemptions," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:uersrr:340568. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ersgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.