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Scenarios of Global Food Consumption: Implications for Agriculture

Author

Listed:
  • Sands, Ronald D.
  • Meade, Birgit
  • Seale, James L., Jr.
  • Robinson, Sherman
  • Seeger, Riley

Abstract

The global land base is under increasing pressure to provide food for a growing population. This report describes how increasing population, income, and agricultural productivity may affect the production and consumption of crops and food products by 2050. Rising incomes have historically implied increasing consumption of animal products, with large increases in feed calories relative to increases in calories consumed as food. Crop calories are the unit of agricultural production in this report, allowing aggregation across multiple crop types, comparison to calories consumed as food, and providing an indicator of cropland requirements. The following questions are addressed: How do increasing population and income affect global demand for crop and food calories by 2050? What is the effect of agricultural productivity growth on food prices and cropland area expansion? Results show that in an income-driven food demand scenario, production of world crop calories increases by 47 percent from 2011 to 2050. Demand for food calories and crop calories increases over time in all scenarios, with most of the adjustment through increases in crop yield (intensification). The amount of cropland also increases (extensification) but less on a percentage basis.

Suggested Citation

  • Sands, Ronald D. & Meade, Birgit & Seale, James L., Jr. & Robinson, Sherman & Seeger, Riley, 2023. "Scenarios of Global Food Consumption: Implications for Agriculture," Economic Research Report 338943, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:uersrr:338943
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.338943
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sands, Ronald D. & Malcolm, Scott A. & Suttles, Shellye A. & Marshall, Elizabeth, 2017. "Dedicated Energy Crops and Competition for Agricultural Land," Economic Research Report 252445, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    2. Sherman Robinson & Hans Meijl & Dirk Willenbockel & Hugo Valin & Shinichiro Fujimori & Toshihiko Masui & Ron Sands & Marshall Wise & Katherine Calvin & Petr Havlik & Daniel Mason d'Croz & Andrzej Tabe, 2014. "Comparing supply-side specifications in models of global agriculture and the food system," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 21-35, January.
    3. David Tilman & Michael Clark, 2014. "Global diets link environmental sustainability and human health," Nature, Nature, vol. 515(7528), pages 518-522, November.
    4. Benjamin Leon Bodirsky & Susanne Rolinski & Anne Biewald & Isabelle Weindl & Alexander Popp & Hermann Lotze-Campen, 2015. "Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(11), pages 1-27, November.
    5. Hugo Valin & Ronald D. Sands & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe & Gerald C. Nelson & Helal Ahammad & Elodie Blanc & Benjamin Bodirsky & Shinichiro Fujimori & Tomoko Hasegawa & Petr Havlik & Edwina Heyhoe, 2014. "The future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 51-67, January.
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