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Análise Dos Reflexos Econômicos Derivados De Surtos Da Gripe Aviária No Brasil Utilizando Um Modelo De Equilíbrio Geral Computável

Author

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  • Fachinello, Arlei Luiz
  • Ferreira Filho, Joaquim Bento de Souza

Abstract

O vírus de influenza aviária H5N1 tem se disseminado rapidamente por diversos países e continentes nos últimos anos, podendo também chegar no Brasil. A ausência e a necessidade de estimativas de impacto econômico no país, derivadas de surtos de gripe aviária em território brasileiro, motivaram a presente pesquisa. Foram simulados três cenários utilizando-se de um modelo aplicado de equilíbrio geral inter-regional, denominado TERM-BR. O primeiro cenário (Cenário I) contempla um foco da doença no Rio Grande do Norte, região Nordeste do país. O segundo (Cenário II) simula a presença de diversos focos da doença no estado de São Paulo. O terceiro (Cenário III) considera o surgimento de diversos focos presentes nos estados Rio Grande do Norte, Rondônia, São Paulo e Rio Grande do Sul. Os resultados sinalizam impactos de maior dimensão na medida em que os focos da doença surgem próximos aos mercados produtores, exportadores e consumidores, como é o caso da região Sul e Sudeste. Na região Sul, em função da dimensão da avicultura na economia local, a crise do setor avícola acaba refletindo negativamente e acentuadamente sobre o conjunto da economia local. Nas regiões Norte e Nordeste, as restrições sobre a aquisição de aves vivas pelas famílias têm grande peso na retração da atividade econômica do setor avícola, já que a atividade de abate é pouco representativa e parcela importante das aves é adquirida diretamente pelas famílias, o que não acontece na mesma dimensão nas demais regiões do país. O choque de demanda doméstica de produtos avícolas, comparado com os demais choques, revela-se como o principal responsável pelo comportamento na produção em quase todos os estados. Já o choque de oferta, via mortalidade das aves e destruição de ovos, pouco influencia a magnitude da queda na produção dos produtos da avicultura. ---------------------------------------------In the past few years, the bird flue virus H5N1 spread rapidly through various countries and continents, causing great economic and human losses. There is also the possibility of the disease arriving in Brazil, which would have a substantial impact on the country’s economy, particularly on its poultry sector. The present study addresses the lack of estimates of the potential economic consequences of a bird flu outbreak on commercial poultry production in Brazil. The analysis consists of three simulations using a interregional general equilibrium model called TERM-BR. The first scenario focuses on an outbreak in the state of Rio Grande do Norte in the Northeastern part of the country. The second scenario simulates an outbreak at various places in the State of Sao Paulo, and the third scenario assesses the consequences of a bird flue outbreak in various states simultaneously, Rio Grande do Norte, Rondônia, São Paulo and Rio Grande do Sul. The results indicate greater economic impact when the outbreak occurs close to points of production and consumption, which is the case in the Southern and Southeastern regions of Brazil. In the South, where the poultry sector constitutes a larger share of the local economy, a potential avian flu outbreak will also have a greater negative economic impact. In the Northern and Northeastern region, live birds are generally purchased and slaughtered directly by individual families living in suburban and small town settings rather then by large scale processors and packinghouses. In most states, this fall of domestic poultry demand is the primary cause for a shift in production. In contrast, the fall in export demand only weighs heavily on the local economy when the outbreak occurs close to exporting regions. Finally, the reduction in poultry supply through death of infected birds and destruction of eggs, has little affect on the decrease of poultry production.

Suggested Citation

  • Fachinello, Arlei Luiz & Ferreira Filho, Joaquim Bento de Souza, 2008. "Análise Dos Reflexos Econômicos Derivados De Surtos Da Gripe Aviária No Brasil Utilizando Um Modelo De Equilíbrio Geral Computável," 46th Congress, July 20-23, 2008, Rio Branco, Acre, Brazil 110071, Sociedade Brasileira de Economia, Administracao e Sociologia Rural (SOBER).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:sbrfsr:110071
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.110071
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    References listed on IDEAS

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