IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aare11/100581.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

An Empirical Model of Crop Rotations

Author

Listed:
  • MacEwan, Duncan
  • Howitt, Richard E.

Abstract

Crop rotation systems have played a key role in agricultural production for thousands of years, dating back to the biennial grain-fallow rotations employed by the Ancient Greeks. Fundamentally, rotations are rooted in intertemporal spillover effects between crops, the economic consequences of which depend on relative input and output prices. We contribute to the literature by developing a dynamic, field-level model of crop rotations using a geo-referenced panel dataset that covers 12 years and over 14,000 individual fields. We identify empirical rotations using a Sequence Analysis procedure from the bio-informatics literature, and calibrate a dynamic field-level profit function that satisfies the underlying Euler dynamic first-order conditions using Generalized Maximum Entropy. The resulting model is based entirely on empirical data, and exhibits a stable rotational cycle which responds to changes in expected prices and costs. We illustrate the mechanics of the model with a four-crop rotation of alfalfa, cotton, grain, and fallow, and simulate field-level changes resulting from changes in relative prices.

Suggested Citation

  • MacEwan, Duncan & Howitt, Richard E., 2011. "An Empirical Model of Crop Rotations," 2011 Conference (55th), February 8-11, 2011, Melbourne, Australia 100581, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aare11:100581
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.100581
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/100581/files/MacEwan_Howitt_AARES_1.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.100581?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Talaat El-Nazer & Bruce A. McCarl, 1986. "The Choice of Crop Rotation: A Modeling Approach and Case Study," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 68(1), pages 127-136.
    2. Doole, Graeme J., 2009. "A Practical Algorithm for Multiple-Phase Control Systems in Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 34(1), pages 1-21, April.
    3. Christian Brzinsky-Fay & Ulrich Kohler & Magdalena Luniak, 2006. "Sequence analysis with Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 6(4), pages 435-460, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alain Carpentier & Alexandre Gohin, 2015. "On the economic theory of crop rotations: value of the crop rotation effects and implications on acreage choice modeling," Working Papers SMART 15-04, INRAE UMR SMART.
    2. Stigler, Matthieu M., 2018. "Supply response at the field-level: disentangling area and yield effects," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274343, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. MacEwan, Duncan & Howitt, Richard E., 2011. "Estimating Crop Rotations as Dynamic Cycles using Field Data," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 103635, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Amon-Armah, Frederick & Yiridoe, Emmanuel K. & Hebb, Dale & Jamieson, Rob, 2013. "Nitrogen abatement cost comparison for cropping systems under alternative management choices," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 149915, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Liu, Xing & Lehtonen, Heikki & Purola, Tuomo & Pavlova, Yulia & Rötter, Reimund & Palosuo, Taru, 2016. "Dynamic economic modelling of crop rotations with farm management practices under future pest pressure," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 65-76.
    4. Júlia Mikolai & Hill Kulu, 2019. "Union dissolution and housing trajectories in Britain," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 41(7), pages 161-196.
    5. CARPENTIER, Alain & GOHIN, Alexandre & SCKOKAI, Paolo & THOMAS, Alban, 2015. "Economic modelling of agricultural production: past advances and new challenges," Review of Agricultural and Environmental Studies - Revue d'Etudes en Agriculture et Environnement (RAEStud), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), vol. 96(1), March.
    6. Babette Bühler & Katja Möhring & Andreas P. Weiland, 2022. "Assessing dissimilarity of employment history information from survey and administrative data using sequence analysis techniques," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 4747-4774, December.
    7. Thang, Tran Cong & Burton, Michael P. & Brennan, Donna C., 2009. "Optimal replanting and cutting rule for coffee farmers in Vietnam," 2009 Conference (53rd), February 11-13, 2009, Cairns, Australia 47638, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    8. Langena, Nina & Klink, Jeanette & Hartmann, Monika, 2013. "Individualized or non-individualized IDM: What elicits consumer preferences best?," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150637, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    9. Szabó, Lajos Tamás, 2022. "A közfoglalkoztatottak jellemzői [The characteristics of public workers]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(10), pages 1114-1156.
    10. Jatta Salmela & Tea Lallukka & Elina Mauramo & Ossi Rahkonen & Noora Kanerva, 2020. "Body Mass Index Trajectory–Specific Changes in Economic Circumstances: A Person-Oriented Approach Among Midlife and Ageing Finns," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(10), pages 1-13, May.
    11. Michael Anyadike-Danes & Duncan McVicar, 2010. "My Brilliant Career: Characterizing the Early Labor Market Trajectories of British Women From Generation X," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 38(3), pages 482-512, February.
    12. Carmichael, Fiona & Ercolani, Marco G., 2016. "Unpaid caregiving and paid work over life-courses: Different pathways, diverging outcomes," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 1-11.
    13. ALBERT VERDÚ, Cecilia & DAVIA, María A., 2010. "Education And Labour Market Transitions Amongst Compulsory Education Graduates And School Dropouts," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 10(3).
    14. Ibirénoyé Romaric Sodjahin & Fabienne Femenia & Obafemi Philippe Koutchade & A. Carpentier, 2022. "On the economic value of the agronomic effects of crop diversification for farmers: estimation based on farm cost accounting data [Valeur économique des effets agronomiques de la diversification de," Working Papers hal-03639951, HAL.
    15. Glen, J. J. & Tipper, R., 2001. "A mathematical programming model for improvement planning in a semi-subsistence farm," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 295-317, October.
    16. Iddo Kan & Ofira Ayalon & Roy Federman, 2010. "On the efficiency of composting organic wastes," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(2), pages 151-163, March.
    17. Laurent Lesnard, 2010. "Setting Cost in Optimal Matching to Uncover Contemporaneous Socio-Temporal Patterns," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 38(3), pages 389-419, February.
    18. L. Alfandari & J. Lemalade & A. Nagih & G. Plateau, 2011. "A MIP flow model for crop-rotation planning in a context of forest sustainable development," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 190(1), pages 149-164, October.
    19. Ndivhuho Tshikovhi & Krantisagar More & Zamaswazi Cele, 2023. "Driving Sustainable Growth for Small and Medium Enterprises in Emerging Urban–Rural Economies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-11, October.
    20. Arja Jolkkonen & Pertti Koistinen & Arja Kurvinen & Liudmila Lipiäinen & Tapio Nummi & Pekka Virtanen, 2018. "Labour Market Attachment Following Major Workforce Downsizings: A Comparison of Displaced and Retained Workers," Work, Employment & Society, British Sociological Association, vol. 32(6), pages 992-1010, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crop Production/Industries;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aare11:100581. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaresea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.