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Decoupled farm payments and the Role of Base Updating under uncertainty

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  • Bhaskar, Arathi
  • Beghin, John C.

Abstract

In the context of the U.S farm policy, this paper analyzes the effect that expectations about base updating in future policies have on a farmer’s acreage decision in the presence of price, yield and policy uncertainty. We consider a risk neutral farmer producing a single crop whose income consists of market revenue and government payments. We consider two policy regimes. Decisions made in the current policy regime are linked to government payments in the future policy regime through the possibility of a base update in the future regime. There is policy uncertainty about the possibility of a base update being allowed in the future. We combine stochastic dynamic programming with present value calculations to link current acreage decisions to future program payments. The average optimal planted acreage is weakly increasing in the subjective probability of the future base update. The maximum percentage increase in the average optimal planted acreage is 6%.

Suggested Citation

  • Bhaskar, Arathi & Beghin, John C., 2008. "Decoupled farm payments and the Role of Base Updating under uncertainty," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6339, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea08:6339
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.6339
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    1. Bhaskar, Arathi & Beghin, John C., 2009. "How Coupled Are Decoupled Farm Payments? A Review of the Evidence," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 34(1), pages 1-24, April.
    2. Urban, Kirsten & Jensen, Hans Grinsted & Brockmeier, Martina, 2012. "How Decoupled is the SFP in GTAP: Using a Sensitivity Analysis to Uncover the Degree of Coupling," Conference papers 332173, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. Zhihua Xiao & Murray Fulton, 2018. "Underinvestment in Producer†Funded Agricultural R&D: The Role of the Horizon Problem," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 66(1), pages 55-86, March.
    4. Mark, Tyler B. & Detre, Joshua & D'Antoni, Jeremy & Mishra, Ashok, 2012. "Factors Influencing Farm Operator Expectations on Future Levels of Government Support," Journal of the ASFMRA, American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers, vol. 2012, pages 1-17.
    5. Fabienne Femenia & Alexandre Gohin & Alain Carpentier, 2010. "The Decoupling of Farm Programs: Revisiting the Wealth Effect," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(3), pages 836-848.
    6. Just, David R. & Kropp, Jaclyn D., 2009. "Production Incentives from Static Decoupling: Entry, Exit and Use Exclusion Restrictions," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49158, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Martin Nordin, 2014. "Does the Decoupling Reform Affect Agricultural Employment in Sweden? Evidence from an Exogenous Change," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(3), pages 616-636, September.
    8. Kropp, Jaclyn D. & Whitaker, James B., 2009. "The Impact of Decoupled Payments on the Cost of Operating Capital," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49311, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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