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Prediction of Loan Deficiency Payments

Author

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  • Cooper, Joseph C.
  • Plato, Gerald E.

Abstract

This paper develops a stochastic model for estimating potential loan deficiency payments to U.S. corn producers in a discrete-dynamic context. We minimize the potential for misspecification bias by using nonparametric and semi-nonparametric approaches as specification checks in the model. The model permits the forecast at planting time of the resulting empirical distribution of LDP payments for that crop year. Using this model, the paper examines the sensitivity of this distribution to changes in expected price levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Cooper, Joseph C. & Plato, Gerald E., 2007. "Prediction of Loan Deficiency Payments," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon 9717, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea07:9717
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.9717
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    Keywords

    Agricultural Finance;

    Statistics

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