This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Poverty Vulnerability and Trade Policy: Are the Likely Impacts Discernable?

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Valenzuela, Ernesto
Hertel, Thomas

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

Trade policy reform prospects have generated debate about the impacts on poverty. Some critics assert that price changes induced by trade reform are minimal and may not be distinguishable from price fluctuations induced by other shocks to the global economy. This paper addresses this issue by developing an approach to assess whether poverty changes induced by trade reform can be statistically discernable, based on a comparison in the grains sector. Fluctuations in grains markets are implemented by incorporating stochastic simulations into a CGE model of the global economy. The resulting price distributions are inputted to a micro-simulation based on national household surveys. The conclusions are based on the comparison of the resulting poverty distributions from the weather-induced variability only, versus the combined effect of the latter and trade reform. Results indicate that, in this conservative approach of evaluating only the global grains markets, the short-run impacts on poverty of trade liberalization can not be distinguished from market volatility in some countries.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21397
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association) in its series 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA with number 21397.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea06:21397

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 555 East Wells Street, Suite 1100, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 53202
Phone: (414) 918-3190
Fax: (414) 276-3349
Email:
Web page: http://www.aaea.org
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (AgEcon Search).

Related research
Keywords: International Relations/Trade;

Other versions of this item:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Cranfield, J. A. L. & Preckel, Paul V. & Eales, James S. & Hertel, Thomas W., 2002. "Estimating consumer demands across the development spectrum: maximum likelihood estimates of an implicit direct additivity model," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 289-307, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Anderson, Kym & Valenzuela, Ernesto, 2006. "WTO's Doha Cotton Initiative: A Tale of Two Issues," CEPR Discussion Papers 5567, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Hertel, Thomas & David Hummels & Maros Ivanic & Roman Keeney, 2003. "How Confident Can We Be in CGE-Based Assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," GTAP Working Papers 1324, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Pritchett, Lant & Suryahadi, Asep & Sumarto, Sudarno, 2000. "Quantifying vulnerability to poverty - a proposed measure, applied to Indonesia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2437, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Rimmer, Maureen T & Powell, Alan A, 1996. "An Implicitly Additive Demand System," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 28(12), pages 1613-22, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Ligon, Ethan & Laura Schechter, 2002. "Measuring Vulnerability," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 128, Royal Economic Society.
    Other versions:
  7. Keeney, Roman & Thomas Hertel, 2005. "GTAP-AGR : A Framework for Assessing the Implications of Multilateral Changes in Agricultural Policies," GTAP Technical Papers 1869, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University. [Downloadable!]
  8. Valenzuela, Ernesto & Hertel, Thomas W. & Ivanic, Maros & Pratt, Alejandro Nin, 2004. "Evaluating Poverty Impacts of Globalization and Trade Policy Changes on Agricultural Producers," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20242, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  9. Cranfield, J. A. L. & Preckel, Paul V. & Eales, James S. & Hertel, Thomas W., 2004. "Simultaneous estimation of an implicit directly additive demand system and the distribution of expenditure--an application of maximum entropy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 361-385, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. François Bourguignon & Sylvie Lambert & Akiko suwa-Eisenmann, 2004. "Trade exposure and income volatility in cash-crop exporting developing countries," Research Unit Working Papers 0408, Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquee, INRA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. DeVuyst, Eric A. & Preckel, Paul V., 1997. "Sensitivity analysis revisited: A quadrature-based approach," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 175-185, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Maureen T. Rimmer & Alan A. Powell, 1992. "An Implicitly Directly Additive Demand System: Estimates for Australia," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers op-73, Monash University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre. [Downloadable!]
  13. Hertel, Thomas W. & Keeney, Roman & Valenzuela, Ernesto, 2004. "Global Analysis Of Agricultural Trade Liberalization: Assessing Model Validity," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20199, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  14. Shaohua Chen & Ravallion, Martin, 2000. "How did the world's poorest fare in the 1990s ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2409, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Thomas W. Hertel & Maros Ivanic & Paul V. Preckel & John A. L. Cranfield, 2004. "The Earnings Effects of Multilateral Trade Liberalization: Implications for Poverty," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 18(2), pages 205-236.
  16. Domberger, Simon, 1987. "Relative Price Variability and Inflation: A Disaggregated Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(3), pages 547-66, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Pearson, Ken & Channing Arndt, 2000. "Implementing Systematic Sensitivity Analysis Using GEMPACK," GTAP Technical Papers 474, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University. [Downloadable!]
  18. Ivanic, Maros, 2004. "Reconciliation of the GTAP and Household Survey Data," GTAP Research Memoranda 1408, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University. [Downloadable!]
  19. W. Jill Harrison & J. Mark Horridge & K.R. Pearson, 2000. "Decomposing Simulation Results with Respect to Exogenous Shocks," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 227-249, June. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  20. Ruffin, Roy & Jones, Ronald, 1977. "Protection and real wages: The neoclassical ambiguity," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 337-348, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Gabre-Madhin, Eleni Z. & Barrett, Christopher B. & Dorosh, Paul A., 2003. "Technological change and price effects in agriculture," MTID discussion papers 62, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). [Downloadable!]
  22. Kym Anderson, 2004. "Agricultural trade reform and poverty reduction in developing countries," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp014, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  23. Arndt, Channing, 1996. "An Introduction to Systematic Sensitivity Analysis via Gaussian Quadrature," GTAP Technical Papers 305, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University. [Downloadable!]
  24. Gamanou, Gisele & Morduch, Jonathan, 2002. "Measuring Vulnerability to Poverty," Working Papers UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER). [Downloadable!]
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? Cannot find something on IDEAS? Encourage the publisher to index it! Instructions.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-11.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.