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Gas Natural y Desigualdad en Bolivia Después de la Nacionalización

Author

Listed:
  • Lykke E. Andersen

    (Institute for Advanced Development Studies)

  • Johann Caro

    (Institute for Advanced Development Studies)

  • Robert Faris

    (Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University)

  • Mauricio Medinaceli

Abstract

Los precios altos del petróleo y el significativo incremento de los ingresos públicos provenientes de su explotación han implicado que el gas natural se vuelva muy importante para la economía boliviana. Este trabajo utiliza un modelo de Equilibrio General Computarizado (EGC) para evaluar los impactos de este boom sobre las variables macroeconómicas claves así como respecto de la distribución de ingresos en la sociedad. Desde una perspectiva macroeconómica, el boom del gas natural parece ser una bendición, pues podría elevar en cerca de un punto porcentual las tasas de crecimiento del PIB durante por lo menos una década, incrementando vigorosamente los ingresos del gobierno para realizar gastos e inversiones públicas. Sin embargo, los segmentos más pobres de la población (pequeños agricultores e informales urbanos) podrían verse seriamente afectados, sufriendo reducciones en sus ingresos reales en comparación con el escenario opuesto, es decir, sin el boom del gas. Esto quiere decir que el boom del gas natural no sólo podría causar un aumento en la desigualdad sino también una expansión de la pobreza. Este trabajo termina con algunas recomendaciones en cuanto a políticas que sugieren cómo contrarestar los efectos secundarios negativos del boom de gas natural.

Suggested Citation

  • Lykke E. Andersen & Johann Caro & Robert Faris & Mauricio Medinaceli, 2006. "Gas Natural y Desigualdad en Bolivia Después de la Nacionalización," Development Research Working Paper Series 08/2006, Institute for Advanced Development Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:adv:wpaper:200608
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    File URL: http://www.inesad.edu.bo/pdf/wp08_2006.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Fontaine, Guillaume, 2011. "The effects of governance modes on the energy matrix of Andean countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2888-2898, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Gas Natural; Desigualdad; modelo EGC; Bolivia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q33 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Resource Booms (Dutch Disease)
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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