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Model-Based Policy Analysis to Mitigate Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder

In: Policy Analytics, Modelling, and Informatics

Author

Listed:
  • Navid Ghaffarzadegan

    (Virginia Tech)

  • Richard C. Larson

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • Henry Fingerhut

    (Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • Mohammad S. Jalali

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • Alireza Ebrahimvandi

    (Virginia Tech)

  • Anne Quaadgras

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • Thomas Kochan

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

Abstract

A wide range of modeling methods have been used to inform health policies. In this chapter, we describe three models for understanding the complexities of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), a major mental disorder. The models are: (1) a qualitative model describing the social and psychological complexities of PTSD treatment; (2) a system dynamics model of a population of PTSD patients in the military and the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA); and (3) a Monte Carlo simulation model of PTSD prevalence and clinical demand over time among the OEF/OIF population. These models have two characteristics in common. First, they take systems approaches. In all models, we set a large boundary and look at the whole system, incorporating both military personnel and veterans. Second, the models are informed by a wide range of qualitative and quantitative data. Model I is rooted in qualitative data, and models II and III are calibrated to several data sources. These models are used to analyze the effects of different policy alternatives, such as more screening, more resiliency, and better recruitment procedures, on PTSD prevalence. They also provide analysis of healthcare costs in the military and the VA for each policy. Overall, the developed models offer examples of modeling techniques that incorporate a wide range of data sources and inform policy makers in developing programs for mitigating PTSD, a major premise of policy informatics.

Suggested Citation

  • Navid Ghaffarzadegan & Richard C. Larson & Henry Fingerhut & Mohammad S. Jalali & Alireza Ebrahimvandi & Anne Quaadgras & Thomas Kochan, 2018. "Model-Based Policy Analysis to Mitigate Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder," Public Administration and Information Technology, in: J Ramon Gil-Garcia & Theresa A. Pardo & Luis F. Luna-Reyes (ed.), Policy Analytics, Modelling, and Informatics, pages 387-406, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:paitcp:978-3-319-61762-6_17
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-61762-6_17
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