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Joshua C.C. Chan

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Joshua Chan & Gary Koop & Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & Rodney Strachan, 2011. "Time Varying Dimension Models," Working Papers 1116, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Do not waste degrees of freedom with macro data
      by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2011-06-30 19:21:00

Wikipedia or ReplicationWiki mentions

(Only mentions on Wikipedia that link back to a page on a RePEc service)
  1. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2005. "Replication of the results in 'learning about heterogeneity in returns to schooling'," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 439-443.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Replication of the results in 'learning about heterogeneity in returns to schooling' (Journal of Applied Econometrics 2005) in ReplicationWiki ()
  2. Joshua C. C. Chan & Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2013. "A New Model of Trend Inflation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 94-106, January.

    Mentioned in:

    1. A New Model of Trend Inflation (J Business & Econ Statistics 2013) in ReplicationWiki ()

Working papers

  1. Joshua C. C. Chan & Aubrey Poon & Dan Zhu, 2023. "High-Dimensional Conditionally Gaussian State Space Models with Missing Data," Papers 2302.03172, arXiv.org.

    Cited by:

    1. Drechsel, Thomas & Antolin-Diaz, Juan & Petrella, Ivan, 2023. "Advances in Nowcasting Economic Activity: The Role of Heterogeneous Dynamics and Fat Tails," CEPR Discussion Papers 17800, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Luca Barbaglia & Lorenzo Frattarolo & Niko Hauzenberger & Dominik Hirschbuehl & Florian Huber & Luca Onorante & Michael Pfarrhofer & Luca Tiozzo Pezzoli, 2024. "Nowcasting economic activity in European regions using a mixed-frequency dynamic factor model," Papers 2401.10054, arXiv.org.
    3. Eraslan, Sercan & Reif, Magnus, 2023. "A latent weekly GDP indicator for Germany," Technical Papers 08/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Matteo Iacopini & Aubrey Poon & Luca Rossini & Dan Zhu, 2022. "Bayesian Mixed-Frequency Quantile Vector Autoregression: Eliciting tail risks of Monthly US GDP," Papers 2209.01910, arXiv.org.
    5. Joshua Chan, 2023. "BVARs and Stochastic Volatility," Papers 2310.14438, arXiv.org.
    6. Mertens, Elmar, 2023. "Precision-based sampling for state space models that have no measurement error," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).

  2. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2022. "Comparing Stochastic Volatility Specifications for Large Bayesian VARs," Papers 2208.13255, arXiv.org.

    Cited by:

    1. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Poon, Aubrey & Zhu, Dan, 2023. "High-dimensional conditionally Gaussian state space models with missing data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).
    2. Andrea Bastianin & Elisabetta Mirto & Yan Qin & Luca Rossini, 2024. "What drives the European carbon market? Macroeconomic factors and forecasts," Papers 2402.04828, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    3. Cross, Jamie L. & Hou, Chenghan & Koop, Gary & Poon, Aubrey, 2023. "Large stochastic volatility in mean VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).

  3. Joshua C. C. Chan & Xuewen Yu, 2022. "Fast and Accurate Variational Inference for Large Bayesian VARs with Stochastic Volatility," Papers 2206.08438, arXiv.org.

    Cited by:

    1. Gefang, Deborah & Koop, Gary & Poon, Aubrey, 2023. "Forecasting using variational Bayesian inference in large vector autoregressions with hierarchical shrinkage," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 346-363.
    2. David T. Frazier & Gael M. Martin & Ruben Loaiza-Maya, 2022. "Variational Bayes in State Space Models: Inferential and Predictive Accuracy," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 1/22, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    3. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    4. Jan Pruser & Florian Huber, 2023. "Nonlinearities in Macroeconomic Tail Risk through the Lens of Big Data Quantile Regressions," Papers 2301.13604, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    5. Zheng, Tingguo & Ye, Shiqi & Hong, Yongmiao, 2023. "Fast estimation of a large TVP-VAR model with score-driven volatilities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    6. Chaya Weerasinghe & Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier, 2023. "ABC-based Forecasting in State Space Models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 12/23, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    7. Mauro Bernardi & Daniele Bianchi & Nicolas Bianco, 2022. "Smoothing volatility targeting," Papers 2212.07288, arXiv.org.
    8. Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Worapree Maneesoonthorn & Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & John Maheu & Didier Nibbering & Anastasios Panagiotelis, 2022. "Bayesian Forecasting in Economics and Finance: A Modern Review," Papers 2212.03471, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    9. Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & John Maheu & Didier Nibbering & Anastasios Panagiotelis, 2023. "Bayesian Forecasting in the 21st Century: A Modern Review," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 1/23, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    10. Joshua Chan, 2023. "BVARs and Stochastic Volatility," Papers 2310.14438, arXiv.org.
    11. Jan Prüser & Florian Huber, 2024. "Nonlinearities in macroeconomic tail risk through the lens of big data quantile regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 269-291, March.
    12. Flavio Pérez Rojo & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2023. "Jane Haldimand Marcet: Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks in the Peruvian Economy Over Time," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2023-523, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    13. Rub'en Loaiza-Maya & Didier Nibbering, 2022. "Efficient variational approximations for state space models," Papers 2210.11010, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.
    14. Lin Deng & Michael Stanley Smith & Worapree Maneesoonthorn, 2023. "Large Skew-t Copula Models and Asymmetric Dependence in Intraday Equity Returns," Papers 2308.05564, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    15. Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Christian P. Robert, 2021. "Approximating Bayes in the 21st Century," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 24/21, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    16. Mauro Bernardi & Daniele Bianchi & Nicolas Bianco, 2022. "Variational inference for large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Papers 2202.12644, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.

  4. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2022. "Large Hybrid Time-Varying Parameter VARs," Papers 2201.07303, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2022.

    Cited by:

    1. Nima Nonejad, 2021. "An Overview Of Dynamic Model Averaging Techniques In Time‐Series Econometrics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 566-614, April.
    2. Hauzenberger, Niko, 2021. "Flexible Mixture Priors for Large Time-varying Parameter Models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 87-108.
    3. Zhao, Jing, 2023. "Time-varying impact of geopolitical risk on natural resources prices: Evidence from the hybrid TVP-VAR model with large system," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    4. Saeed Zaman, 2021. "A Unified Framework to Estimate Macroeconomic Stars," Working Papers 21-23R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 15 Aug 2022.
    5. Zhou, Dong-hai & Liu, Xiao-xing, 2023. "Do world stock markets “jump” together? A measure of high-frequency volatility risk spillover networks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    6. G. Cubadda & S. Grassi & B. Guardabascio, 2022. "The Time-Varying Multivariate Autoregressive Index Model," Papers 2201.07069, arXiv.org.
    7. Yunyun Wang & Tatsushi Oka & Dan Zhu, 2024. "Inflation Target at Risk: A Time-varying Parameter Distributional Regression," Papers 2403.12456, arXiv.org.
    8. Markus Heinrich & Magnus Reif, 2020. "Real-Time Forecasting Using Mixed-Frequency VARS with Time-Varying Parameters," CESifo Working Paper Series 8054, CESifo.
    9. Rub'en Loaiza-Maya & Didier Nibbering, 2022. "Efficient variational approximations for state space models," Papers 2210.11010, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.

  5. Joshua Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Xuewen Yu, 2022. "Large Bayesian VARs with Factor Stochastic Volatility: Identification, Order Invariance and Structural Analysis," Papers 2207.03988, arXiv.org.

    Cited by:

    1. Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & James Mitchell, 2023. "Bayesian Modeling of Time-Varying Parameters Using Regression Trees," Working Papers 23-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    2. Joshua Chan, 2023. "BVARs and Stochastic Volatility," Papers 2310.14438, arXiv.org.
    3. Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & James Mitchell, 2022. "Bayesian Modeling of TVP-VARs Using Regression Trees," Papers 2209.11970, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.

  6. Joshua C. C. Chan & Gary Koop & Xuewen Yu, 2021. "Large Order-Invariant Bayesian VARs with Stochastic Volatility," Papers 2111.07225, arXiv.org.

    Cited by:

    1. Joshua C. C. Chan & Xuewen Yu, 2022. "Fast and Accurate Variational Inference for Large Bayesian VARs with Stochastic Volatility," Papers 2206.08438, arXiv.org.
    2. Arias, Jonas E. & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan F. & Shin, Minchul, 2023. "Macroeconomic forecasting and variable ordering in multivariate stochastic volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 1054-1086.
    3. Ping Wu & Gary Koop, 2022. "Fast, Order-Invariant Bayesian Inference in VARs using the Eigendecomposition of the Error Covariance Matrix," Working Papers 2310, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    4. Sune Karlsson & Stepan Mazur & Hoang Nguyen, 2021. "Vector autoregression models with skewness and heavy tails," Papers 2105.11182, arXiv.org.
    5. Wu, Ping & Koop, Gary, 2023. "Estimating the ordering of variables in a VAR using a Plackett–Luce prior," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    6. Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Worapree Maneesoonthorn & Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & John Maheu & Didier Nibbering & Anastasios Panagiotelis, 2022. "Bayesian Forecasting in Economics and Finance: A Modern Review," Papers 2212.03471, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    7. Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & John Maheu & Didier Nibbering & Anastasios Panagiotelis, 2023. "Bayesian Forecasting in the 21st Century: A Modern Review," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 1/23, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    8. Florian Huber & Gary Koop, 2023. "Fast and Order-invariant Inference in Bayesian VARs with Non-Parametric Shocks," Working Papers 2309, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    9. Prüser, Jan & Blagov, Boris, 2022. "Improving inference and forecasting in VAR models using cross-sectional information," Ruhr Economic Papers 960, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    10. Braun, Robin, 2021. "The importance of supply and demand for oil prices: evidence from non-Gaussianity," Bank of England working papers 957, Bank of England.
    11. Uddin, Mohammad Jalal, 2023. "Investigating the impulse responses of renewable energy in the context of China: A Bayesian VAR Approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(P2).
    12. Chenghan Hou & Bao Nguyen & Bo Zhang, 2023. "Real‐time forecasting of the Australian macroeconomy using flexible Bayesian VARs," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 418-451, March.
    13. Helmut Lutkepohl & Fei Shang & Luis Uzeda & Tomasz Wo'zniak, 2024. "Partial Identification of Heteroskedastic Structural VARs: Theory and Bayesian Inference," Papers 2404.11057, arXiv.org.
    14. Joshua Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Xuewen Yu, 2022. "Large Bayesian VARs with Factor Stochastic Volatility: Identification, Order Invariance and Structural Analysis," Papers 2207.03988, arXiv.org.
    15. Luis Gruber & Gregor Kastner, 2022. "Forecasting macroeconomic data with Bayesian VARs: Sparse or dense? It depends!," Papers 2206.04902, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.

  7. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2021. "Asymmetric Conjugate Priors for Large Bayesian VARs," Papers 2111.07170, arXiv.org.

    Cited by:

    1. Joshua C. C. Chan & Xuewen Yu, 2022. "Fast and Accurate Variational Inference for Large Bayesian VARs with Stochastic Volatility," Papers 2206.08438, arXiv.org.
    2. Michael Pfarrhofer, 2024. "Forecasts with Bayesian vector autoregressions under real time conditions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(3), pages 771-801, April.
    3. Loria, Francesca & Matthes, Christian & Wang, Mu-Chun, 2022. "Economic theories and macroeconomic reality," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 105-117.
    4. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2019. "Minnesota-type adaptive hierarchical priors for large Bayesian VARs," CAMA Working Papers 2019-61, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    5. Minsu Chang & Frank Schorfheide, 2024. "On the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Income and Consumption Heterogeneity," PIER Working Paper Archive 24-003, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    6. Degasperi,Riccardo & Hong, Seokki Simon & Ricco, Giovanni, 2020. "The Global Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1257, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    7. Gary Koop & Stuart McIntyre & James Mitchell & Aubrey Poon & Ping Wu, 2023. "Incorporating Short Data into Large Mixed-Frequency VARs for Regional Nowcasting," Working Papers 2311, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    8. Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Worapree Maneesoonthorn & Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & John Maheu & Didier Nibbering & Anastasios Panagiotelis, 2022. "Bayesian Forecasting in Economics and Finance: A Modern Review," Papers 2212.03471, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    9. Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & John Maheu & Didier Nibbering & Anastasios Panagiotelis, 2023. "Bayesian Forecasting in the 21st Century: A Modern Review," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 1/23, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    10. Leonardo N. Ferreira & Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2023. "Bayesian Local Projections," Working Papers 2023-04, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    11. Cross, Jamie L. & Hou, Chenghan & Koop, Gary & Poon, Aubrey, 2023. "Large stochastic volatility in mean VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).
    12. Flavio Pérez Rojo & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2023. "Jane Haldimand Marcet: Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks in the Peruvian Economy Over Time," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2023-523, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    13. Zhang, Wen, 2022. "China’s government spending and global inflation dynamics: The role of the oil price channel," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    14. Florian Huber & Gary Koop, 2023. "Subspace shrinkage in conjugate Bayesian vector autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(4), pages 556-576, June.

  8. Joshua C. C. Chan & Aubrey Poon & Dan Zhu, 2021. "Efficient Estimation of State-Space Mixed-Frequency VARs: A Precision-Based Approach," Papers 2112.11315, arXiv.org.

    Cited by:

    1. Pettenuzzo, Davide & Sabbatucci, Riccardo & Timmermann, Allan, 2023. "Dividend suspensions and cash flows during the Covid-19 pandemic: A dynamic econometric model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 1522-1541.
    2. Serena Ng & Susannah Scanlan, 2023. "Constructing High Frequency Economic Indicators by Imputation," Papers 2303.01863, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.

  9. Joshua C.C. Chan & Rodney W. Strachan, 2020. "Bayesian state space models in macroeconometrics," CAMA Working Papers 2020-90, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Giacomo Rella, 2021. "The Fed, housing and household debt over time," Department of Economics University of Siena 850, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    2. Niko Hauzenberger, 2020. "Flexible Mixture Priors for Large Time-varying Parameter Models," Papers 2006.10088, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2020.
    3. Jamie L. Cross & Aubrey Poon & Dan Zhu, 2023. "Uncertainty and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers No 12/2023, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    4. Hauzenberger, Niko, 2021. "Flexible Mixture Priors for Large Time-varying Parameter Models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 87-108.
    5. Srdelic, Leonarda & Davila-Fernandez, Marwil J., 2022. "Demographic transition and economic growth in 6-EU member states," MPRA Paper 112188, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Felix Chan & Les Oxley, 2023. "A pulse check on recent developments in time series econometrics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 3-6, February.
    7. Anna Pajor & Justyna Wróblewska & Łukasz Kwiatkowski & Jacek Osiewalski, 2024. "Hybrid SV‐GARCH, t‐GARCH and Markov‐switching covariance structures in VEC models—Which is better from a predictive perspective?," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 92(1), pages 62-86, April.

  10. Joshua C. C. Chan & Liana Jacobi & Dan Zhu, 2019. "An automated prior robustness analysis in Bayesian model comparison," CAMA Working Papers 2019-45, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Joshua C. C. Chan & Liana Jacobi & Dan Zhu, 2020. "Efficient selection of hyperparameters in large Bayesian VARs using automatic differentiation," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 934-943, September.

  11. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2019. "Minnesota-type adaptive hierarchical priors for large Bayesian VARs," CAMA Working Papers 2019-61, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Massimiliano Marcellino & Nico Petz, 2021. "Gaussian Process Vector Autoregressions and Macroeconomic Uncertainty," Papers 2112.01995, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2022.
    2. Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2022. "APPROXIMATE BAYESIAN INFERENCE AND FORECASTING IN HUGE‐DIMENSIONAL MULTICOUNTRY VARs," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1625-1658, November.
    3. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2022. "Specification Choices in Quantile Regression for Empirical Macroeconomics," Working Papers 22-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    4. Jan Pruser & Florian Huber, 2023. "Nonlinearities in Macroeconomic Tail Risk through the Lens of Big Data Quantile Regressions," Papers 2301.13604, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    5. Wu, Ping & Koop, Gary, 2023. "Estimating the ordering of variables in a VAR using a Plackett–Luce prior," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    6. Todd E. Clark & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & Massimiliano Marcellino & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2021. "Tail Forecasting with Multivariate Bayesian Additive Regression Trees," Working Papers 21-08R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 12 Jul 2022.
    7. Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Worapree Maneesoonthorn & Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & John Maheu & Didier Nibbering & Anastasios Panagiotelis, 2022. "Bayesian Forecasting in Economics and Finance: A Modern Review," Papers 2212.03471, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    8. Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & John Maheu & Didier Nibbering & Anastasios Panagiotelis, 2023. "Bayesian Forecasting in the 21st Century: A Modern Review," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 1/23, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    9. Hauber, Philipp, 2022. "Real-time nowcasting with sparse factor models," EconStor Preprints 251551, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    10. Jan Prüser & Florian Huber, 2024. "Nonlinearities in macroeconomic tail risk through the lens of big data quantile regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 269-291, March.
    11. Prüser, Jan & Blagov, Boris, 2022. "Improving inference and forecasting in VAR models using cross-sectional information," Ruhr Economic Papers 960, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    12. Cross, Jamie L. & Hou, Chenghan & Koop, Gary & Poon, Aubrey, 2023. "Large stochastic volatility in mean VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).
    13. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2022. "Comparing Stochastic Volatility Specifications for Large Bayesian VARs," Papers 2208.13255, arXiv.org.
    14. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Bai, Yu & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd, 2022. "Macroeconomic Forecasting in a Multi-country Context," CEPR Discussion Papers 16994, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Hauzenberger, Niko & Huber, Florian & Klieber, Karin, 2023. "Real-time inflation forecasting using non-linear dimension reduction techniques," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 901-921.
    16. Jamie L. Cross & Chenghan Hou & Gary Koop, 2021. "Macroeconomic Forecasting with Large Stochastic Volatility in Mean VARs," Working Papers No 04/2021, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    17. Nonejad, Nima, 2023. "Modeling the out-of-sample predictive relationship between equity premium, returns on the price of crude oil and economic policy uncertainty using multivariate time-varying dimension models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    18. Luis Gruber & Gregor Kastner, 2022. "Forecasting macroeconomic data with Bayesian VARs: Sparse or dense? It depends!," Papers 2206.04902, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.

  12. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2019. "Large Bayesian vector autoregressions," CAMA Working Papers 2019-19, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Florian Eckert & Nina Mühlebach, 2021. "Global and Local Components of Output Gaps," KOF Working papers 21-497, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    2. Joshua C. C. Chan & Liana Jacobi & Dan Zhu, 2020. "Efficient selection of hyperparameters in large Bayesian VARs using automatic differentiation," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 934-943, September.
    3. Joshua C. C. Chan & Gary Koop & Xuewen Yu, 2024. "Large Order-Invariant Bayesian VARs with Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 825-837, April.
    4. Haroon Mumtaz & Fulvia Marotta, 2023. "Vulnerability to Climate Change: Evidence from a Dynamic Factor Model," Working Papers 961, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    5. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2019. "Minnesota-type adaptive hierarchical priors for large Bayesian VARs," CAMA Working Papers 2019-61, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    6. Barbara Rossi, 2019. "Forecasting in the presence of instabilities: How do we know whether models predict well and how to improve them," Economics Working Papers 1711, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2021.
    7. Bańbura, Marta & Leiva-León, Danilo & Menz, Jan-Oliver, 2021. "Do inflation expectations improve model-based inflation forecasts?," Discussion Papers 48/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2022. "Asymmetric conjugate priors for large Bayesian VARs," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(3), pages 1145-1169, July.
    9. Zhang, Bo & Nguyen, Bao H., 2020. "Real-time forecasting of the Australian macroeconomy using Bayesian VARs," Working Papers 2020-12, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    10. Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvão, 2023. "Density forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressive models under macroeconomic data uncertainty," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 164-185, March.
    11. Florian Huber & Gary Koop, 2023. "Fast and Order-invariant Inference in Bayesian VARs with Non-Parametric Shocks," Working Papers 2309, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    12. Joshua C. C. Chan & Liana Jacobi & Dan Zhu, 2019. "An automated prior robustness analysis in Bayesian model comparison," CAMA Working Papers 2019-45, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    13. Martin Iseringhausen & Ivan Petrella & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2022. "Aggregate skewness and the business cycle," Working Papers 53, European Stability Mechanism.
    14. Rick Bohte & Luca Rossini, 2019. "Comparing the forecasting of cryptocurrencies by Bayesian time-varying volatility models," Papers 1909.06599, arXiv.org.
    15. Karin Klieber, 2023. "Non-linear dimension reduction in factor-augmented vector autoregressions," Papers 2309.04821, arXiv.org.
    16. Thomas St�rdal Gundersen & Even Soltvedt Hvinden, 2021. "OPEC's crude game: Strategic Competition and Regime-switching in Global Oil Markets," Working Papers No 01/2021, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    17. Dimitris Korobilis & Maximilian Schroder, 2023. "Monitoring multicountry macroeconomic risk," Papers 2305.09563, arXiv.org.
    18. Andrea Renzetti, 2023. "Modelling and Forecasting Macroeconomic Risk with Time Varying Skewness Stochastic Volatility Models," Papers 2306.09287, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.
    19. Luis Gruber & Gregor Kastner, 2022. "Forecasting macroeconomic data with Bayesian VARs: Sparse or dense? It depends!," Papers 2206.04902, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    20. Nadiia Shapovalenko, 2021. "A BVAR Model for Forecasting Ukrainian Inflation and GDP," Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, National Bank of Ukraine, issue 251, pages 14-36.

  13. Joshua C. C. Chan & Liana Jacobi & Dan Zhu, 2019. "Efficient selection of hyperparameters in large Bayesian VARs using automatic differentiation," CAMA Working Papers 2019-46, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2019. "Minnesota-type adaptive hierarchical priors for large Bayesian VARs," CAMA Working Papers 2019-61, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2022. "Asymmetric conjugate priors for large Bayesian VARs," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(3), pages 1145-1169, July.
    3. Consolo, Agostino & Foroni, Claudia & Martínez Hernández, Catalina, 2021. "A mixed frequency BVAR for the euro area labour market," Working Paper Series 2601, European Central Bank.
    4. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2022. "Comparing Stochastic Volatility Specifications for Large Bayesian VARs," Papers 2208.13255, arXiv.org.
    5. Jamie L. Cross & Chenghan Hou & Gary Koop, 2021. "Macroeconomic Forecasting with Large Stochastic Volatility in Mean VARs," Working Papers No 04/2021, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    6. Nadiia Shapovalenko, 2021. "A BVAR Model for Forecasting Ukrainian Inflation and GDP," Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, National Bank of Ukraine, issue 251, pages 14-36.

  14. Joshua Chan & Arnaud Doucet & Roberto León-González & Rodney W. Strachan, 2018. "Multivariate stochastic volatility with co-heteroscedasticity," CAMA Working Papers 2018-52, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Joshua C. C. Chan & Gary Koop & Xuewen Yu, 2024. "Large Order-Invariant Bayesian VARs with Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 825-837, April.
    2. Arias, Jonas E. & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan F. & Shin, Minchul, 2023. "Macroeconomic forecasting and variable ordering in multivariate stochastic volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 1054-1086.
    3. Joshua Chan, 2023. "BVARs and Stochastic Volatility," Papers 2310.14438, arXiv.org.
    4. Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & Blessings Majoni, 2023. "Exact Likelihood for Inverse Gamma Stochastic Volatility Models," Working Paper series 23-11, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    5. Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev & Alexandr Radygin (ed.), 2018. "Russian Economy in 2017. Trends and Outlooks. In Russian," Books, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, edition 1, volume 39, number re39-2017-ru, November.
    6. Cross, Jamie L. & Hou, Chenghan & Koop, Gary & Poon, Aubrey, 2023. "Large stochastic volatility in mean VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).

  15. Joshua Chan & Luca Benati & Eric Eisenstat & Gary Koop, 2018. "Identifying Noise Shocks," Working Paper Series 41, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.

    Cited by:

    1. Luca Benati & Thomas A. Lubik, 2022. "Searching for Hysteresis," Working Paper 22-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    2. Luca Gambetti & Christoph Görtz & Dimitris Korobilis & John D. Tsoukalas & Francesco Zanetti, 2022. "The Effect of News Shocks and Monetary Policy," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honour of Fabio Canova, volume 44, pages 139-164, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    3. Ansgar Belke & Steffen Elstner & Svetlana Rujin, 2022. "Growth Prospects and the Trade Balance in Advanced Economies," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(5), pages 1209-1234, October.

  16. Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Chenghan Hou & Gary Koop, 2018. "Composite likelihood methods for large Bayesian VARs with stochastic volatility," CAMA Working Papers 2018-26, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2018. "Bayesian vector autoregressions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 87393, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Canova, Fabio & Matthes, Christian, 2018. "A composite likelihood approach for dynamic structural models," CEPR Discussion Papers 13245, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Nima Nonejad, 2021. "An Overview Of Dynamic Model Averaging Techniques In Time‐Series Econometrics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 566-614, April.
    4. Gunawan, David & Kohn, Robert & Nott, David, 2021. "Variational Bayes approximation of factor stochastic volatility models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1355-1375.
    5. Jan Pruser & Florian Huber, 2023. "Nonlinearities in Macroeconomic Tail Risk through the Lens of Big Data Quantile Regressions," Papers 2301.13604, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    6. Laumer, Sebastian, 2020. "Government spending and heterogeneous consumption dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    7. Zheng, Tingguo & Ye, Shiqi & Hong, Yongmiao, 2023. "Fast estimation of a large TVP-VAR model with score-driven volatilities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    8. G. Cubadda & S. Grassi & B. Guardabascio, 2022. "The Time-Varying Multivariate Autoregressive Index Model," Papers 2201.07069, arXiv.org.
    9. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2022. "Comparing Stochastic Volatility Specifications for Large Bayesian VARs," Papers 2208.13255, arXiv.org.
    10. Kerem Tuzcuoglu, 2019. "Composite Likelihood Estimation of an Autoregressive Panel Probit Model with Random Effects," Staff Working Papers 19-16, Bank of Canada.
    11. Raanju R. Sundararajan & Wagner Barreto‐Souza, 2023. "Student‐t stochastic volatility model with composite likelihood EM‐algorithm," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(1), pages 125-147, January.
    12. Matteo Iacopini & Luca Rossini, 2019. "Bayesian nonparametric graphical models for time-varying parameters VAR," Papers 1906.02140, arXiv.org.
    13. Yuliya Rychalovska & Sergey Slobodyan & Rafael Wouters, 2023. "Professional Survey Forecasts and Expectations in DSGE Models," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp766, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.

  17. Bo Zhang & Joshua C.C. Chan & Jamie L. Cross, 2018. "Stochastic volatility models with ARMA innovations: An application to G7 inflation forecasts," CAMA Working Papers 2018-32, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Del Negro, Marco & Lenza, Michele & Primiceri, Giorgio E. & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2020. "What’s up with the Phillips Curve?," Working Paper Series 2435, European Central Bank.
    2. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2019. "Assessing Nowcast Accuracy of US GDP Growth in Real Time: The Role of Booms and Busts," Working Papers 2019/01, Latvijas Banka.
    3. Arango-Castillo, Lenin & Orraca, María José & Molina, G. Stefano, 2023. "The global component of headline and core inflation in emerging market economies and its ability to improve forecasting performance," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    4. Yuntong Liu & Yu Wei & Yi Liu & Wenjuan Li, 2020. "Forecasting Oil Price by Hierarchical Shrinkage in Dynamic Parameter Models," Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, Hindawi, vol. 2020, pages 1-12, December.
    5. Zhang, Bo & Nguyen, Bao H., 2020. "Real-time forecasting of the Australian macroeconomy using Bayesian VARs," Working Papers 2020-12, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    6. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Poon, Aubrey & Zhu, Dan, 2023. "High-dimensional conditionally Gaussian state space models with missing data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).
    7. Chenghan Hou & Bao Nguyen & Bo Zhang, 2023. "Real‐time forecasting of the Australian macroeconomy using flexible Bayesian VARs," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 418-451, March.
    8. Jamie L. Cross & Chenghan Hou & Gary Koop, 2021. "Macroeconomic Forecasting with Large Stochastic Volatility in Mean VARs," Working Papers No 04/2021, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    9. Matteo Mogliani & Anna Simoni, 2024. "Bayesian Bi-level Sparse Group Regressions for Macroeconomic Forecasting," Papers 2404.02671, arXiv.org.
    10. Bo Zhang & Jamie Cross & Na Guo, 2020. "Time-Varying Trend Models for Forecasting Inflation in Australia," Working Papers No 09/2020, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    11. Na Guo & Bo Zhang & Jamie L. Cross, 2022. "Time‐varying trend models for forecasting inflation in Australia," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(2), pages 316-330, March.

  18. Joshua C.C. Chan & Liana Jacobi & Dan Zhu, 2018. "How sensitive are VAR forecasts to prior hyperparameters? An automated sensitivity analysis," CAMA Working Papers 2018-25, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Joshua C. C. Chan & Liana Jacobi & Dan Zhu, 2020. "Efficient selection of hyperparameters in large Bayesian VARs using automatic differentiation," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 934-943, September.
    2. Zhongdong Yu & Wei Liu & Liming Chen & Serkan Eti & Hasan Dinçer & Serhat Yüksel, 2019. "The Effects of Electricity Production on Industrial Development and Sustainable Economic Growth: A VAR Analysis for BRICS Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(21), pages 1-13, October.
    3. Joshua C. C. Chan & Liana Jacobi & Dan Zhu, 2019. "An automated prior robustness analysis in Bayesian model comparison," CAMA Working Papers 2019-45, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    4. Jamie L. Cross & Chenghan Hou & Gary Koop, 2021. "Macroeconomic Forecasting with Large Stochastic Volatility in Mean VARs," Working Papers No 04/2021, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    5. Cross, Jamie L. & Hou, Chenghan & Poon, Aubrey, 2020. "Macroeconomic forecasting with large Bayesian VARs: Global-local priors and the illusion of sparsity," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 899-915.

  19. Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Rodney W. Strachan, 2018. "Reducing dimensions in a large TVP-VAR," CAMA Working Papers 2018-49, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Simon Beyeler, 2019. "Streamlining Time-varying VAR with a Factor Structure in the Parameters," Working Papers 19.03, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    2. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2020. "The Macroeconomy as a Random Forest," Papers 2006.12724, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
    3. Jim Hart & Bernardino D'Amico & Francesco Pomponi, 2021. "Whole‐life embodied carbon in multistory buildings: Steel, concrete and timber structures," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 25(2), pages 403-418, April.
    4. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2021. "The Macroeconomy as a Random Forest," Working Papers 21-05, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.
    5. Zhao, Jing, 2023. "Time-varying impact of geopolitical risk on natural resources prices: Evidence from the hybrid TVP-VAR model with large system," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    6. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2020. "Time-Varying Parameters as Ridge Regressions," Papers 2009.00401, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2023.

  20. Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat, 2018. "Comparing hybrid time-varying parameter VARs," CAMA Working Papers 2018-31, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Berger, Helge & Karlsson, Sune & Österholm, Pär, 2023. "A Note of Caution on the Relation between Money Growth and Inflation," Working Papers 2023:9, Örebro University, School of Business.
    2. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2019. "Minnesota-type adaptive hierarchical priors for large Bayesian VARs," CAMA Working Papers 2019-61, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    3. Jiménez, Alvaro & Rodríguez, Gabriel & Ataurima Arellano, Miguel, 2023. "Time-varying impact of fiscal shocks over GDP growth in Peru: An empirical application using hybrid TVP-VAR-SV models," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 314-332.
    4. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2022. "Asymmetric conjugate priors for large Bayesian VARs," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(3), pages 1145-1169, July.
    5. Karlsson, Sune & Österholm, Pär, 2020. "A hybrid time-varying parameter Bayesian VAR analysis of Okun’s law in the United States," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    6. Lin Liu, 2021. "U.S. Economic Uncertainty Shocks and China’s Economic Activities: A Time-Varying Perspective," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(3), pages 21582440211, July.
    7. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2020. "Time-Varying Parameters as Ridge Regressions," Papers 2009.00401, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2023.
    8. Edvinsson, Rodney & Karlsson, Sune & Österholm, Pär, 2023. "Does Money Growth Predict Inflation? Evidence from Vector Autoregressions Using Four Centuries of Data," Working Papers 2023:3, Örebro University, School of Business.

  21. Joshua C C Chan & Yong Song, 2017. "Measuring inflation expectations uncertainty using high-frequency data," CAMA Working Papers 2017-61, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Carlomagno, Guillermo & Fornero, Jorge & Sansone, Andrés, 2023. "A proposal for constructing and evaluating core inflation measures," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(3).
    2. Carola Binder & Wesley Janson & Randal J. Verbrugge, 2019. "Thinking Outside the Box: Do SPF Respondents Have Anchored Inflation Expectations?," Working Papers 19-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    3. Bańbura, Marta & Leiva-León, Danilo & Menz, Jan-Oliver, 2021. "Do inflation expectations improve model-based inflation forecasts?," Discussion Papers 48/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Ryngaert, Jane M., 2022. "Inflation disasters and consumption," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(S), pages 67-81.
    5. Chen, Ji & Yang, Xinglin & Liu, Xiliang, 2022. "Learning, disagreement and inflation forecasting," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    6. Miescu, Mirela S., 2023. "Uncertainty shocks in emerging economies: A global to local approach for identification," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    7. Fuest, Angela & Schmidt, Torsten, 2020. "Inflation expectation uncertainty in a New Keynesian framework," Ruhr Economic Papers 867, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.

  22. Joshua C C Chan & Angelia L Grant, 2017. "Measuring the output gap using stochastic model specification search," CAMA Working Papers 2017-02, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Morley, James & Wong, Benjamin, 2018. "Estimating and Accounting for the Output Gap with Large Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers 2018-04, University of Sydney, School of Economics, revised Feb 2019.
    2. Fu, Bowen, 2020. "Is the slope of the Phillips curve time-varying? Evidence from unobserved components models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 320-340.
    3. Nataliia Ostapenko, 2022. "Do output gap estimates improve inflation forecasts in Slovakia?," Working and Discussion Papers WP 4/2022, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    4. Alberto Montagnoli & Konstantinos Mouratidis & Kemar Whyte, 2018. "Assessing the Cyclical Behaviour of Bank Capital Buyers in a Finance-Augmented Macro-Economy," Working Papers 2018003, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    5. Manuel González-Astudillo & John M. Roberts, 2022. "When are trend–cycle decompositions of GDP reliable?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(5), pages 2417-2460, May.
    6. Ramis Khabibullin, 2019. "What measures of real economic activity slack are helpful for forecasting Russian inflation?," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps50, Bank of Russia.

  23. Joshua C.C. Chan & Angelia L. Grant, 2016. "Reconciling output gaps: unobserved components model and Hodrick-Prescott filter," CAMA Working Papers 2016-44, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Kabundi, Alain & Poon, Aubrey & Wu, Ping, 2023. "A time-varying Phillips curve with global factors: Are global factors important?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    2. Fernandes, Mário Correia & Dutra, Tiago Mota & Dias, José Carlos & Teixeira, João C.A., 2023. "Modelling output gaps in the Euro Area with structural breaks: The COVID-19 recession," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1046-1058.
    3. Cláudia Duarte & José R. Maria & Sharmin Sazedj, 2019. "Trends and cycles under changing economic conditions," Working Papers w201918, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    4. Agovino, Massimiliano & Musella, Gaetano & Scaletti, Alessandro, 2022. "Equilibrium and efficiency in the first aid services market: The case of the emergency department of Sorrento," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 82(PB).
    5. Kristian Jönsson, 2018. "Extending the state-space representation of the judgement-augmented Hodrick-Prescott filter," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(1), pages 623-628.
    6. Xu, Jia & Tan, Xiujie & He, Gang & Liu, Yu, 2019. "Disentangling the drivers of carbon prices in China's ETS pilots — An EEMD approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 1-9.
    7. Gabor Katay & Lisa Kerdelhué & Matthieu Lequien, 2020. "Semi-Structural VAR and Unobserved Components Models to Estimate Finance-Neutral Output Gap," Working Papers 2020-11, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    8. Daniel Buncic, 2020. "Econometric issues with Laubach and Williams' estimates of the natural rate of interest," Papers 2002.11583, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2020.
    9. Saeed Zaman, 2021. "A Unified Framework to Estimate Macroeconomic Stars," Working Papers 21-23R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 15 Aug 2022.
    10. Hauber, Philipp & Schumacher, Christian, 2021. "Precision-based sampling with missing observations: A factor model application," Discussion Papers 11/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    11. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Poon, Aubrey & Zhu, Dan, 2023. "High-dimensional conditionally Gaussian state space models with missing data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).
    12. Yahya, Farzan & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2023. "Disentangling the asymmetric effect of financialization on the green output gap," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    13. Josefine Quast & Maik H. Wolters, 2023. "The Federal Reserve's output gap: The unreliability of real‐time reliability tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(7), pages 1101-1111, November.
    14. Mertens, Elmar, 2023. "Precision-based sampling for state space models that have no measurement error," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    15. Nicolò Maffei-Faccioli, 2021. "Identifying the sources of the slowdown in growth: Demand vs. supply," Working Paper 2021/9, Norges Bank.
    16. Gómez Julián, José Mauricio, 2024. "Sectorial Exclusion Criteria in the Marxist Analysis of the Average Rate of Profit: The United States Case (1960-2020)," OSF Preprints seqbf, Center for Open Science.
    17. Massimiliano Agovino & Michele Bevilacqua & Massimiliano Cerciello, 2022. "Language as a proxy for cultural change. A contrastive analysis for French and Italian lexicon on male homosexuality," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 149-172, February.
    18. Agbeyegbe, Terence D., 2020. "Bayesian analysis of output gap in Barbados," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 1(1).
    19. Luis Eduardo Castillo & David Florián Hoyle, 2019. "Measuring the output gap, potential output growth and natural interest rate from a semi-structural dynamic model for Peru," Working Papers 159, Peruvian Economic Association.
    20. Lang, Jan Hannes & Welz, Peter, 2018. "Semi-structural credit gap estimation," Working Paper Series 2194, European Central Bank.
    21. Canova, Fabio & Ferroni, Filippo, 2020. "A hitchhiker guide to empirical macro models," CEPR Discussion Papers 15446, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    22. Ahn, Hie Joo, 2023. "Duration structure of unemployment hazards and the trend unemployment rate," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    23. Jung, Yong-Gook & Kim, Jinyong, 2023. "Banks’ net interest rate spread and the transmission of monetary policy in Korea," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    24. Joshua C.C. Chan & Rodney W. Strachan, 2023. "Bayesian State Space Models In Macroeconometrics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 58-75, February.
    25. Nicolo Maffei-Faccioli, 2020. "Identifying the Sources of the Slowdown in Growth: Demand vs. Supply," 2020 Papers pma2978, Job Market Papers.
    26. Richard K. Crump & Nikolay Gospodinov & Hunter Wieman, 2023. "Sparse Trend Estimation," Staff Reports 1049, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    27. Ramis Khabibullin, 2019. "What measures of real economic activity slack are helpful for forecasting Russian inflation?," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps50, Bank of Russia.
    28. Martin Boďa & Mariana Považanová, 2023. "How credible are Okun coefficients? The gap version of Okun’s law for G7 economies," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 1467-1514, June.

  24. Joshua C.C. Chan & Angelia L. Grant, 2015. "A Bayesian model comparison for trend-cycle decompositions of output," CAMA Working Papers 2015-31, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Bofinger, Peter & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schnabel, Isabel & Wieland, Volker, 2018. "Vor wichtigen wirtschaftspolitischen Weichenstellungen. Jahresgutachten 2018/19 [Setting the Right Course for Economic Policy. Annual Report 2018/19]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201819.
    2. Diegel, Max, 2022. "Time-varying credibility, anchoring and the Fed's inflation target," Discussion Papers 2022/9, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    3. Weber, Enzo & Gehrke, Britta, 2018. "Identifying Asymmetric Effects of Labor Market Reforms," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181513, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Gunes Kamber & James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2017. "Intuitive and reliable estimates of the output gap from a Beveridge-Nelson Filter," CAMA Working Papers 2017-03, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    5. Jmaes McNeil, 2020. "Monetary policy and the term structure of Inflation expectations with information frictions," Working Papers daleconwp2020-07, Dalhousie University, Department of Economics.
    6. Tino Berger & James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2020. "Nowcasting the output gap," CAMA Working Papers 2020-78, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    7. Canova, Fabio, 2020. "FAQ: How do I extract the output gap?," Working Paper Series 386, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    8. Saeed Zaman, 2021. "A Unified Framework to Estimate Macroeconomic Stars," Working Papers 21-23R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 15 Aug 2022.
    9. Weiske, Sebastian, 2018. "Indicator-based estimates of the output gap in the euro area," Working Papers 12/2018, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    10. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Poon, Aubrey & Zhu, Dan, 2023. "High-dimensional conditionally Gaussian state space models with missing data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).
    11. Kohns, David & Bhattacharjee, Arnab, 2023. "Nowcasting growth using Google Trends data: A Bayesian Structural Time Series model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1384-1412.
    12. Yunjong Eo & James Morley, 2020. "Why has the U.S. economy stagnated since the Great Recession?," Discussion Paper Series 2001, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
    13. Mertens, Elmar, 2023. "Precision-based sampling for state space models that have no measurement error," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    14. Jaeho Kim & Sora Chon, 2020. "Why are Bayesian trend-cycle decompositions of US real GDP so different?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1339-1354, March.
    15. David Kohns & Arnab Bhattacharjee, 2020. "Nowcasting Growth using Google Trends Data: A Bayesian Structural Time Series Model," Papers 2011.00938, arXiv.org, revised May 2022.
    16. Agbeyegbe, Terence D., 2020. "Bayesian analysis of output gap in Barbados," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 1(1).
    17. Canova, Fabio, 2020. "FAQ: How do I measure the Output gap?," CEPR Discussion Papers 14943, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Marko Melolinna & Máté Tóth, 2019. "Output gaps, inflation and financial cycles in the UK," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 1039-1070, March.
    19. Melolinna, Marko & Tóth, Máté, 2019. "Trend and cycle shocks in Bayesian unobserved components models for UK productivity," Bank of England working papers 826, Bank of England.
    20. Weiske, Sebastian, 2019. "Indicator-based estimates of the output gap in the euro area," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203604, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    21. Manuel González-Astudillo & John M. Roberts, 2022. "When are trend–cycle decompositions of GDP reliable?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(5), pages 2417-2460, May.
    22. Ramis Khabibullin, 2019. "What measures of real economic activity slack are helpful for forecasting Russian inflation?," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps50, Bank of Russia.
    23. Adam Check & Jeremy Piger, 2021. "Structural Breaks in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(8), pages 1999-2036, December.
    24. Mr. Geoffrey J Bannister & Mr. Harald Finger & Siddharth Kothari & Ms. Elena Loukoianova, 2020. "Addressing the Pandemic's Medium-Term Fallout in Australia and New Zealand," IMF Working Papers 2020/272, International Monetary Fund.

  25. Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat, 2015. "Bayesian model comparison for time-varying parameter VARs with stochastic volatility," CAMA Working Papers 2015-32, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Joshua C. C. Chan & Xuewen Yu, 2022. "Fast and Accurate Variational Inference for Large Bayesian VARs with Stochastic Volatility," Papers 2206.08438, arXiv.org.
    2. Pooyan Amir-Ahmadi & Christian Matthes & Mu-Chun Wang, 2020. "Choosing Prior Hyperparameters: With Applications to Time-Varying Parameter Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 124-136, January.
    3. Deborah Gefang & Gary Koop & Aubrey Poon, 2019. "Variational Bayesian inference in large Vector Autoregressions with hierarchical shrinkage," CAMA Working Papers 2019-08, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    4. Yang, Xite & Zhang, Qin & Liu, Haiyue & Liu, Zihan & Tao, Qiufan & Lai, Yongzeng & Huang, Linya, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty, macroeconomic shocks, and systemic risk: Evidence from China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(PA).
    5. Karlsson, Sune & Österholm, Pär, 2018. "Is the US Phillips Curve Stable? Evidence from Bayesian VARs," Working Papers 2018:5, Örebro University, School of Business.
    6. Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Chenghan Hou & Gary Koop, 2018. "Composite likelihood methods for large Bayesian VARs with stochastic volatility," CAMA Working Papers 2018-26, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    7. Prüser, Jan, 2021. "The horseshoe prior for time-varying parameter VARs and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    8. Wenying Zeng & Songbai Song & Yan Kang & Xuan Gao & Rui Ma, 2022. "Response of Runoff to Meteorological Factors Based on Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive Model with Stochastic Volatility in Arid and Semi-Arid Area of Weihe River Basin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-12, June.
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    11. Lehmann, Robert & Wikman, Ida, 2022. "Quarterly GDP Estimates for the German States," MPRA Paper 112642, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Laurynas Narusevicius & Tomas Ramanauskas & Laura Gudauskaitė & Tomas Reichenbachas, 2019. "Lithuanian house price index: modelling and forecasting," Bank of Lithuania Occasional Paper Series 28, Bank of Lithuania.
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    14. Drechsel, Thomas & Antolin-Diaz, Juan & Petrella, Ivan, 2023. "Advances in Nowcasting Economic Activity: The Role of Heterogeneous Dynamics and Fat Tails," CEPR Discussion Papers 17800, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Madison Terrell & Qazi Haque & Jamie L. Cross & Firmin Doko Tchatoka, 2023. "Monetary policy shocks and exchange rate dynamics in small open economies," School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 2023-04 Classification-C3, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy.
    16. Chen, Bin-xia & Sun, Yan-lin, 2024. "Risk characteristics and connectedness in cryptocurrency markets: New evidence from a non-linear framework," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(PA).
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    23. Gary Koop & Stuart McIntyre & James Mitchell & Aubrey Poon, 2018. "Regional Output Growth in the United Kingdom: More Timely and Higher Frequency Estimates, 1970-2017," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2018-14, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
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    33. Cross, Jamie L. & Hou, Chenghan & Nguyen, Bao H., 2021. "On the China factor in the world oil market: A regime switching approach11We thank Hilde Bjørnland, Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, Ippei Fujiwara, Knut Aastveit, Leif Anders Thorsrud, Francesco Ravazzolo, Renee ," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
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    39. Fu, Bowen, 2020. "Is the slope of the Phillips curve time-varying? Evidence from unobserved components models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 320-340.
    40. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd, 2021. "Using Time-Varying Volatility for Identification in Vector Autoregressions: An Application to Endogenous Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 16346, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    41. Lin Liu, 2021. "U.S. Economic Uncertainty Shocks and China’s Economic Activities: A Time-Varying Perspective," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(3), pages 21582440211, July.
    42. Dieppe, Alistair & van Roye, Björn & Legrand, Romain, 2016. "The BEAR toolbox," Working Paper Series 1934, European Central Bank.
    43. Roberto Calero & Gabriel Rodríguez & Rodrigo Salcedo Cisneros, 2022. "Evolution of the Exchange Rate Pass-Throught into Prices in Peru: An Empirical Application Using TVP-VAR-SV Models," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2022-510, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    44. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Eisenstat, Eric, 2018. "Comparing hybrid time-varying parameter VARs," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 1-5.
    45. Aubrey Poon, 2018. "Assessing the Synchronicity and Nature of Australian State Business Cycles," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 94(307), pages 372-390, December.
    46. G. Cubadda & S. Grassi & B. Guardabascio, 2022. "The Time-Varying Multivariate Autoregressive Index Model," Papers 2201.07069, arXiv.org.
    47. Zhou, Dong-hai & Liu, Xiao-xing & Tang, Chun & Yang, Guang-yi, 2023. "Time-varying risk spillovers in Chinese stock market – New evidence from high-frequency data," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    48. Huang, Yingying & Duan, Kun & Urquhart, Andrew, 2023. "Time-varying dependence between Bitcoin and green financial assets: A comparison between pre- and post-COVID-19 periods," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    49. Cross, Jamie & Nguyen, Bao H., 2017. "The relationship between global oil price shocks and China's output: A time-varying analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 79-91.
    50. Michael Pfarrhofer, 2019. "Measuring international uncertainty using global vector autoregressions with drifting parameters," Papers 1908.06325, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2019.
    51. Jamie L. Cross & Chenghan Hou & Bao H. Nguyen, 2018. "On the China factor in international oil markets: A regime switching approach," Working Papers No 11/2018, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    52. Markus Heinrich & Magnus Reif, 2018. "Forecasting using mixed-frequency VARs with time-varying parameters," ifo Working Paper Series 273, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    53. Annalisa Cadonna & Sylvia Fruhwirth-Schnatter & Peter Knaus, 2019. "Triple the gamma -- A unifying shrinkage prior for variance and variable selection in sparse state space and TVP models," Papers 1912.03100, arXiv.org.
    54. Che, Ming & Zhu, Zixiang & Li, Yujia, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and economic policy uncertainty: Different roles in China's financial cycle," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    55. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Eisenstat, Eric & Strachan, Rodney W., 2020. "Reducing the state space dimension in a large TVP-VAR," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 218(1), pages 105-118.
    56. Flavio Pérez Rojo & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2023. "Jane Haldimand Marcet: Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks in the Peruvian Economy Over Time," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2023-523, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    57. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2022. "Comparing Stochastic Volatility Specifications for Large Bayesian VARs," Papers 2208.13255, arXiv.org.
    58. Hou, Chenghan, 2017. "Infinite hidden markov switching VARs with application to macroeconomic forecast," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 1025-1043.
    59. Sune Karlsson & Pär Österholm, 2020. "A note on the stability of the Swedish Phillips curve," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2573-2612, December.
    60. Junior A. Ojeda Cunya & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2022. "Time-Varying Effects of External Shocks on Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Peru: An Empirical Application using TVP-VAR- SV Models," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2022-507, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    61. Anna Pajor & Justyna Wróblewska, 2022. "Forecasting performance of Bayesian VEC-MSF models for financial data in the presence of long-run relationships," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 12(3), pages 427-448, September.
    62. Ioannou, Demosthenes & Stracca, Livio & Pagliari, Maria Sole, 2020. "The international dimension of an incomplete EMU," Working Paper Series 2459, European Central Bank.
    63. Eric Eisenstat & Joshua C.C. Chan & Rodney W. Strachan, 2018. "Reducing Dimensions in a Large TVP-VAR," Working Paper Series 43, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    64. Ioannou Demosthenes & Pagliari Maria Sole & Stracca Livio, 2020. "The international dimension of a fragile EMU," Working papers 795, Banque de France.
    65. Gong, Xiao-Li & Liu, Xi-Hua & Xiong, Xiong & Zhuang, Xin-Tian, 2019. "Non-Gaussian VARMA model with stochastic volatility and applications in stock market bubbles," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 129-136.
    66. Li, Yong & Yu, Jun & Zeng, Tao, 2020. "Deviance information criterion for latent variable models and misspecified models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 216(2), pages 450-493.
    67. Legrand, Romain, 2018. "Time-Varying Vector Autoregressions: Efficient Estimation, Random Inertia and Random Mean," MPRA Paper 88925, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    68. Karlsson, Sune & Österholm, Pär, 2019. "Volatilities, drifts and the relation between treasury yields and the corporate bond yield spread in australia," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 378-384.
    69. Helmut Lutkepohl & Fei Shang & Luis Uzeda & Tomasz Wo'zniak, 2024. "Partial Identification of Heteroskedastic Structural VARs: Theory and Bayesian Inference," Papers 2404.11057, arXiv.org.
    70. Gary Koop & Stuart McIntyre & James Mitchell & Aubrey Poon, 2020. "Regional output growth in the United Kingdom: More timely and higher frequency estimates from 1970," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(2), pages 176-197, March.
    71. Romain Aumond & Julien Royer, 2024. "Improving the robustness of Markov-switching dynamic factor models with time-varying volatility," Working Papers 2024-04, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    72. Edvinsson, Rodney & Karlsson, Sune & Österholm, Pär, 2023. "Does Money Growth Predict Inflation? Evidence from Vector Autoregressions Using Four Centuries of Data," Working Papers 2023:3, Örebro University, School of Business.
    73. Fu, Bowen, 2023. "Measuring the trend real interest rate in a data-rich environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    74. Nikita Moiseev & Aleksander Sorokin & Natalya Zvezdina & Alexey Mikhaylov & Lyubov Khomyakova & Mir Sayed Shah Danish, 2021. "Credit Risk Theoretical Model on the Base of DCC-GARCH in Time-Varying Parameters Framework," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(19), pages 1-12, September.
    75. Rodríguez, Gabriel & Vassallo, Renato & Castillo B., Paul, 2023. "Effects of external shocks on macroeconomic fluctuations in Pacific Alliance countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    76. Bäurle Gregor & Kaufmann Daniel & Kaufmann Sylvia & Strachan Rodney, 2020. "Constrained interest rates and changing dynamics at the zero lower bound," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(2), pages 1-26, April.
    77. Luo, Jiawen & Marfatia, Hardik A. & Ji, Qiang & Klein, Tony, 2023. "Co-volatility and asymmetric transmission of risks between the global oil and China's futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    78. O'Brien, Martin & Velasco, Sofia, 2020. "Unobserved components models with stochastic volatility for extracting trends and cycles in credit," Research Technical Papers 09/RT/20, Central Bank of Ireland.
    79. Karlsson, Sune & Kiss, Tamás & Nguyen, Hoang & Österholm, Pär, 2024. "US Interest Rates: Are Relations Stable?," Working Papers 2024:3, Örebro University, School of Business.
    80. Mauricio Alvarado & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2024. "Time-Varying Effects of Financial Uncertainty Shocks on Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Peru," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2024-531, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    81. Mauro Bernardi & Daniele Bianchi & Nicolas Bianco, 2022. "Variational inference for large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Papers 2202.12644, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.
    82. Cross, Jamie & Poon, Aubrey, 2016. "Forecasting structural change and fat-tailed events in Australian macroeconomic variables," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 34-51.
    83. Alexander Meléndez Holguín & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2023. "Evolution over time of the effects of fiscal shocks in the peruvian economy: empirical application using TVP-VAR-SV models," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2023-516, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    84. Anna Pajor & Justyna Wróblewska & Łukasz Kwiatkowski & Jacek Osiewalski, 2024. "Hybrid SV‐GARCH, t‐GARCH and Markov‐switching covariance structures in VEC models—Which is better from a predictive perspective?," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 92(1), pages 62-86, April.
    85. Bruns, Martin, 2021. "Proxy Vector Autoregressions in a Data-rich Environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    86. Osman Doğan & Süleyman Taşpınar & Anil K. Bera, 2021. "Bayesian estimation of stochastic tail index from high-frequency financial data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(5), pages 2685-2711, November.

  26. Joshua C.C. Chan, 2015. "Specification tests for time-varying parameter models with stochastic volatility," CAMA Working Papers 2015-42, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Afees A. Salisu & Idris Adediran, 2018. "Testing for time-varying stochastic volatility in Bitcoin returns," Working Papers 060, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
    2. Galvao, Ana Beatriz & Mitchell, James, 2020. "Real-Time Perceptions of Historical GDP Data Uncertainty," EMF Research Papers 35, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
    3. Julien Champagne & Guillaume Poulin‐Bellisle & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2020. "Introducing the Bank of Canada staff economic projections database," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(1), pages 114-129, January.
    4. Michal Franta & Ivan Sutoris, 2020. "Dynamics of Czech Inflation: The Role of the Trend and the Cycle," Working Papers 2020/1, Czech National Bank.
    5. Bańbura, Marta & Leiva-León, Danilo & Menz, Jan-Oliver, 2021. "Do inflation expectations improve model-based inflation forecasts?," Discussion Papers 48/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Stephen Wright & James Mitchell & Donald Robertson, 2018. "R2 bounds for predictive models: what univariate properties tell us about multivariate predictability," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1804, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    7. Galvao, Ana Beatriz & Mitchell, James, 2019. "Measuring Data Uncertainty : An Application using the Bank of England’s “Fan Charts” for Historical GDP Growth," EMF Research Papers 24, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
    8. Marek Jarociński & Michele Lenza, 2018. "An Inflation‐Predicting Measure of the Output Gap in the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(6), pages 1189-1224, September.
    9. Chi-Young Choi & Alexander Chudik & Aaron Smallwood, 2024. "Time-varying Persistence of House Price Growth: The Role of Expectations and Credit Supply," Globalization Institute Working Papers 426, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    10. Fu, Bowen, 2020. "Is the slope of the Phillips curve time-varying? Evidence from unobserved components models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 320-340.
    11. Martins, Manuel Mota Freitas & Verona, Fabio, 2021. "Inflation dynamics and forecast: Frequency matters," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/2021, Bank of Finland.
    12. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena, 2023. "Does the Phillips curve help to forecast euro area inflation?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 364-390.
    13. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Bai, Yu & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd, 2022. "Macroeconomic Forecasting in a Multi-country Context," CEPR Discussion Papers 16994, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Mónica Correa-López & Matías Pacce & Kathi Schlepper, 2019. "Exploring trend inFLation dynamics in Euro Area countries," Working Papers 1909, Banco de España.
    15. Helmut Lutkepohl & Fei Shang & Luis Uzeda & Tomasz Wo'zniak, 2024. "Partial Identification of Heteroskedastic Structural VARs: Theory and Bayesian Inference," Papers 2404.11057, arXiv.org.
    16. Alex, Dony, 2021. "Anchoring of inflation expectations in large emerging economies," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    17. Afees A. Salisu & Ahamuefula Ephraim Ogbonna, 2018. "Does time-variation matter in the stochastic volatility components for G7 stock returns," Working Papers 062, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
    18. Joshua C.C. Chan & Rodney W. Strachan, 2023. "Bayesian State Space Models In Macroeconometrics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 58-75, February.
    19. Amaze Lusompa & Sai Sattiraju, 2023. "Will High Underlying Inflation Persist?," Economic Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 1-4, May.
    20. Ramis Khabibullin, 2019. "What measures of real economic activity slack are helpful for forecasting Russian inflation?," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps50, Bank of Russia.
    21. Cross, Jamie L. & Hou, Chenghan & Trinh, Kelly, 2021. "Returns, volatility and the cryptocurrency bubble of 2017–18," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    22. Balatti, Mirco, 2020. "Inflation volatility in small and large advanced open economies," Working Paper Series 2448, European Central Bank.
    23. Bańbura, Marta & Brenna, Federica & Paredes, Joan & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2021. "Combining Bayesian VARs with survey density forecasts: does it pay off?," Working Paper Series 2543, European Central Bank.

  27. Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat, 2015. "Efficient estimation of Bayesian VARMAs with time-varying coefficients," CAMA Working Papers 2015-19, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Joshua C C Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Gary Koop, 2014. "Large Bayesian VARMAs," Working Papers 1409, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.

  28. Joshua C.C. Chan & Angelia L. Grant, 2015. "Pitfalls of Estimating the Marginal Likelihood Using the Modified Harmonic Mean," CAMA Working Papers 2015-08, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Gholamreza Hajargasht & D.S. Prasada Rao, 2019. "Multilateral Index Number Systems for International Price Comparisons: Properties, Existence and Uniqueness," CEPA Working Papers Series WP032019, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    2. Diegel, Max, 2022. "Time-varying credibility, anchoring and the Fed's inflation target," Discussion Papers 2022/9, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    3. Joshua C C Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Gary Koop, 2014. "Large Bayesian VARMAs," Working Papers 1409, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    4. Madison Terrell & Qazi Haque & Jamie L. Cross & Firmin Doko Tchatoka, 2023. "Monetary policy shocks and exchange rate dynamics in small open economies," School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 2023-04 Classification-C3, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy.
    5. Pacifico, Antonio, 2020. "Structural Panel Bayesian VAR with Multivariate Time-varying Volatility to jointly deal with Structural Changes, Policy Regime Shifts, and Endogeneity Issues," MPRA Paper 104292, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Gary Koop & Stuart McIntyre & James Mitchell & Aubrey Poon, 2018. "Regional Output Growth in the United Kingdom: More Timely and Higher Frequency Estimates, 1970-2017," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2018-14, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    7. Joshua C.C. Chan, 2015. "Specification tests for time-varying parameter models with stochastic volatility," CAMA Working Papers 2015-42, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    8. Joshua C. C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat, 2018. "Bayesian model comparison for time‐varying parameter VARs with stochastic volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(4), pages 509-532, June.
    9. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Grant, Angelia L., 2016. "Modeling energy price dynamics: GARCH versus stochastic volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 182-189.
    10. Siddhartha Chib & Minchul Shin & Fei Tan, 2023. "DSGE-SVt: An Econometric Toolkit for High-Dimensional DSGE Models with SV and t Errors," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 61(1), pages 69-111, January.
    11. Aubrey Poon, 2018. "Assessing the Synchronicity and Nature of Australian State Business Cycles," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 94(307), pages 372-390, December.
    12. Benjamin K. Johannsen & Elmar Mertens, 2021. "A Time‐Series Model of Interest Rates with the Effective Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(5), pages 1005-1046, August.
    13. Cross, Jamie & Nguyen, Bao H., 2017. "The relationship between global oil price shocks and China's output: A time-varying analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 79-91.
    14. Jamie L. Cross & Chenghan Hou & Bao H. Nguyen, 2018. "On the China factor in international oil markets: A regime switching approach," Working Papers No 11/2018, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    15. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2020. "Large Bayesian VARs: A Flexible Kronecker Error Covariance Structure," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 68-79, January.
    16. Doğan, Osman, 2023. "Modified harmonic mean method for spatial autoregressive models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    17. Siddhartha Chib & Minchul Shin & Fei Tan, 2020. "High-Dimensional DSGE Models: Pointers on Prior, Estimation, Comparison, and Prediction∗," Working Papers 20-35, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    18. Antonio Pacifico, 2021. "Structural Panel Bayesian VAR with Multivariate Time-Varying Volatility to Jointly Deal with Structural Changes, Policy Regime Shifts, and Endogeneity Issues," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-35, May.
    19. Jamie L. Cross & Aubrey Poon, 2020. "On the contribution of international shocks in Australian business cycle fluctuations," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2613-2637, December.

  29. Joshua C.C. Chan & Angelia L. Grant, 2015. "Modeling energy price dynamics: GARCH versus stochastic volatility," CAMA Working Papers 2015-20, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Gefang, Deborah & Koop, Gary & Poon, Aubrey, 2023. "Forecasting using variational Bayesian inference in large vector autoregressions with hierarchical shrinkage," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 346-363.
    2. Angelica Gianfreda & Francesco Ravazzolo & Luca Rossini, 2023. "Large Time‐Varying Volatility Models for Hourly Electricity Prices," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(3), pages 545-573, June.
    3. Fernandes, Mário Correia & Dutra, Tiago Mota & Dias, José Carlos & Teixeira, João C.A., 2023. "Modelling output gaps in the Euro Area with structural breaks: The COVID-19 recession," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1046-1058.
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    Cited by:

    1. Joshua C. C. Chan & Liana Jacobi & Dan Zhu, 2020. "Efficient selection of hyperparameters in large Bayesian VARs using automatic differentiation," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 934-943, September.
    2. Joshua C. C. Chan & Gary Koop & Xuewen Yu, 2024. "Large Order-Invariant Bayesian VARs with Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 825-837, April.
    3. Joshua C. C. Chan & Xuewen Yu, 2022. "Fast and Accurate Variational Inference for Large Bayesian VARs with Stochastic Volatility," Papers 2206.08438, arXiv.org.
    4. Gefang, Deborah & Koop, Gary & Poon, Aubrey, 2023. "Forecasting using variational Bayesian inference in large vector autoregressions with hierarchical shrinkage," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 346-363.
    5. Angelica Gianfreda & Francesco Ravazzolo & Luca Rossini, 2023. "Large Time‐Varying Volatility Models for Hourly Electricity Prices," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(3), pages 545-573, June.
    6. Deborah Gefang & Gary Koop & Aubrey Poon, 2019. "Variational Bayesian inference in large Vector Autoregressions with hierarchical shrinkage," CAMA Working Papers 2019-08, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    7. Knüppel, Malte & Krüger, Fabian & Pohle, Marc-Oliver, 2022. "Score-based calibration testing for multivariate forecast distributions," Discussion Papers 50/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Chiu, Ching-Wai (Jeremy) & Mumtaz, Haroon & Pinter, Gabor, 2016. "VAR models with non-Gaussian shocks," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86238, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Chenghan Hou & Gary Koop, 2018. "Composite likelihood methods for large Bayesian VARs with stochastic volatility," CAMA Working Papers 2018-26, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    10. Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis & Davide Pettenuzzo, 2017. "Bayesian Compressed Vector Autoregressions," Working Paper series 17-32, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    11. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2015. "Large Vector Autoregressions with Asymmetric Priors," Working Papers 759, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    12. Angelica Gianfreda & Francesco Ravazzolo & Luca Rossini, 2020. "Large Time-Varying Volatility Models for Electricity Prices," Working Papers No 05/2020, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    13. Arias, Jonas E. & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan F. & Shin, Minchul, 2023. "Macroeconomic forecasting and variable ordering in multivariate stochastic volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 1054-1086.
    14. Ping Wu & Gary Koop, 2022. "Fast, Order-Invariant Bayesian Inference in VARs using the Eigendecomposition of the Error Covariance Matrix," Working Papers 2310, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    15. Ellington, Michael, 2022. "Fat tails, serial dependence, and implied volatility index connections," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 299(2), pages 768-779.
    16. Zheng, Tingguo & Ye, Shiqi & Hong, Yongmiao, 2023. "Fast estimation of a large TVP-VAR model with score-driven volatilities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    17. Jozef Barunik & Michael Ellington, 2020. "Persistence in Financial Connectedness and Systemic Risk," Papers 2007.07842, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.
    18. Kiss, Tamas & Nguyen, Hoang & Österholm, Pär, 2022. "Modelling Okun’s Law – Does non-Gaussianity Matter?," Working Papers 2022:1, Örebro University, School of Business.
    19. Joshua C. C. Chan & Liana Jacobi & Dan Zhu, 2019. "How Sensitive Are VAR Forecasts to Prior Hyperparameters? An Automated Sensitivity Analysis," Advances in Econometrics, in: Topics in Identification, Limited Dependent Variables, Partial Observability, Experimentation, and Flexible Modeling: Part A, volume 40, pages 229-248, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    20. Gary Koop & Stuart McIntyre & James Mitchell & Aubrey Poon, 2018. "Regional Output Growth in the United Kingdom: More Timely and Higher Frequency Estimates, 1970-2017," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2018-14, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    21. Kim, Jaeho & Linn, Scott C., 2022. "Price discovery under model uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    22. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2019. "Minnesota-type adaptive hierarchical priors for large Bayesian VARs," CAMA Working Papers 2019-61, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    23. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino & Elmar Mertens, 2021. "Addressing COVID-19 Outliers in BVARs with Stochastic Volatility," Working Papers 21-02R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 09 Aug 2021.
    24. Thomas B Götz & Klemens Hauzenberger, 2021. "Large mixed-frequency VARs with a parsimonious time-varying parameter structure," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 24(3), pages 442-461.
    25. Hardik A. Marfatia & Qiang Ji & Jiawen Luo, 2022. "Forecasting the volatility of agricultural commodity futures: The role of co‐volatility and oil volatility," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(2), pages 383-404, March.
    26. Kiss, Tamás & Mazur, Stepan & Nguyen, Hoang & Österholm, Pär, 2021. "Modelling the Relation between the US Real Economy and the Corporate Bond-Yield Spread in Bayesian VARs with non-Gaussian Disturbances," Working Papers 2021:9, Örebro University, School of Business.
    27. Barbara Rossi, 2019. "Forecasting in the presence of instabilities: How do we know whether models predict well and how to improve them," Economics Working Papers 1711, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2021.
    28. Hauber, Philipp & Schumacher, Christian, 2021. "Precision-based sampling with missing observations: A factor model application," Discussion Papers 11/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    29. Matteo Iacopini & Aubrey Poon & Luca Rossini & Dan Zhu, 2022. "Bayesian Mixed-Frequency Quantile Vector Autoregression: Eliciting tail risks of Monthly US GDP," Papers 2209.01910, arXiv.org.
    30. Ellington, Michael & Fu, Xi & Zhu, Yunyi, 2023. "Real estate illiquidity and returns: A time-varying regional perspective," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 58-72.
    31. Joshua Chan, 2023. "BVARs and Stochastic Volatility," Papers 2310.14438, arXiv.org.
    32. Bo Zhang & Joshua C.C. Chan & Jamie L. Cross, 2018. "Stochastic volatility models with ARMA innovations: An application to G7 inflation forecasts," CAMA Working Papers 2018-32, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    33. Zhang, Bo & Nguyen, Bao H., 2020. "Real-time forecasting of the Australian macroeconomy using Bayesian VARs," Working Papers 2020-12, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    34. Todd E. Clark & Gergely Ganics & Elmar Mertens, 2022. "Constructing Fan Charts from the Ragged Edge of SPF Forecasts," Working Papers 22-36, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    35. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Poon, Aubrey & Zhu, Dan, 2023. "High-dimensional conditionally Gaussian state space models with missing data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).
    36. Joshua C. C. Chan & Liana Jacobi & Dan Zhu, 2019. "An automated prior robustness analysis in Bayesian model comparison," CAMA Working Papers 2019-45, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    37. Prüser, Jan & Blagov, Boris, 2022. "Improving inference and forecasting in VAR models using cross-sectional information," Ruhr Economic Papers 960, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    38. Gergely Ganics & Florens Odendahl, 2019. "Bayesian VAR forecasts, survey information and structural change in the euro area," Working Papers 1948, Banco de España.
    39. Hartwig, Benny, 2022. "Bayesian VARs and prior calibration in times of COVID-19," Discussion Papers 52/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    40. Tsionas, Mike G. & Izzeldin, Marwan & Trapani, Lorenzo, 2022. "Estimation of large dimensional time varying VARs using copulas," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    41. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Eisenstat, Eric & Strachan, Rodney W., 2020. "Reducing the state space dimension in a large TVP-VAR," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 218(1), pages 105-118.
    42. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2022. "Comparing Stochastic Volatility Specifications for Large Bayesian VARs," Papers 2208.13255, arXiv.org.
    43. Hou, Chenghan, 2017. "Infinite hidden markov switching VARs with application to macroeconomic forecast," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 1025-1043.
    44. Chenghan Hou & Bao Nguyen & Bo Zhang, 2023. "Real‐time forecasting of the Australian macroeconomy using flexible Bayesian VARs," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 418-451, March.
    45. Ching-Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Haroon Mumtaz & Gabor Pinter, 2016. "Bayesian Vector Autoregressions with Non-Gaussian Shocks," CReMFi Discussion Papers 5, CReMFi, School of Economics and Finance, QMUL.
    46. Bobeica, Elena & Hartwig, Benny, 2023. "The COVID-19 shock and challenges for inflation modelling," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 519-539.
    47. Eric Eisenstat & Joshua C.C. Chan & Rodney W. Strachan, 2018. "Reducing Dimensions in a Large TVP-VAR," Working Paper Series 43, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    48. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2019. "Large Bayesian vector autoregressions," CAMA Working Papers 2019-19, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    49. Prüser, Jan, 2023. "Data-based priors for vector error correction models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 209-227.
    50. Joshua Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Xuewen Yu, 2022. "Large Bayesian VARs with Factor Stochastic Volatility: Identification, Order Invariance and Structural Analysis," Papers 2207.03988, arXiv.org.
    51. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2016. "Large Vector Autoregressions with Stochastic Volatility and Flexible Priors," Working Papers (Old Series) 1617, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    52. Joshua C.C. Chan & Rodney W. Strachan, 2023. "Bayesian State Space Models In Macroeconometrics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 58-75, February.
    53. Florian Huber & Gary Koop, 2023. "Subspace shrinkage in conjugate Bayesian vector autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(4), pages 556-576, June.
    54. Dimitrios P. Louzis, 2019. "Steady‐state modeling and macroeconomic forecasting quality," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(2), pages 285-314, March.
    55. Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd E. & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2019. "Large Bayesian vector autoregressions with stochastic volatility and non-conjugate priors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(1), pages 137-154.
    56. Götz, Thomas B. & Hauzenberger, Klemens, 2018. "Large mixed-frequency VARs with a parsimonious time-varying parameter structure," Discussion Papers 40/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    57. James Cloyne & Joseba Martinez & Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2024. "Taxes, Innovation and Productivity," Working Papers 979, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    58. Luo, Jiawen & Marfatia, Hardik A. & Ji, Qiang & Klein, Tony, 2023. "Co-volatility and asymmetric transmission of risks between the global oil and China's futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    59. Anna Pajor & Justyna Wróblewska & Łukasz Kwiatkowski & Jacek Osiewalski, 2024. "Hybrid SV‐GARCH, t‐GARCH and Markov‐switching covariance structures in VEC models—Which is better from a predictive perspective?," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 92(1), pages 62-86, April.

  31. Joshua C. C. Chan & Todd E. Clark & Gary Koop, 2015. "A New Model of Inflation, Trend Inflation, and Long-Run Inflation Expectations," Working Papers (Old Series) 1520, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

    Cited by:

    1. Geraldine Dany-Knedlik & Juan Angel Garcia, 2018. "Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics in ASEAN Economies," IMF Working Papers 2018/147, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Juan Angel Garcia & Sebastian Werner, 2018. "Inflation News and Euro Area Inflation Expectations," IMF Working Papers 2018/167, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Marente Vlekke & Martin Mellens & Siem Jan Koopmans, 2020. "An assessment of the Phillips curve over time: evidence for the United States and the euro area," CPB Discussion Paper 416, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    4. Florian Huber & Daniel Kaufmann, 2015. "Trend Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Dynamics," KOF Working papers 15-393, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    5. Diegel, Max, 2022. "Time-varying credibility, anchoring and the Fed's inflation target," Discussion Papers 2022/9, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    6. Francesca Rondina, 2018. "Estimating unobservable inflation expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Papers 1804E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    7. Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine & Holtemöller, Oliver, 2018. "Inflation dynamics during the Financial Crisis in Europe: cross-sectional identification of long-run inflation expectations," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181520, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    8. Juan Angel Garcia & Aubrey Poon, 2018. "Trend Inflation and Inflation Compensation," IMF Working Papers 2018/154, International Monetary Fund.
    9. García, Juan Angel & Poon, Aubrey, 2019. "Inflation trends in Asia: implications for central banks," Working Paper Series 2338, European Central Bank.
    10. Arnoud Stevens & Joris Wauters, 2021. "Is euro area lowflation here to stay? Insights from a time‐varying parameter model with survey data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 566-586, August.
    11. Michael Pfarrhofer, 2021. "Modeling tail risks of inflation using unobserved component quantile regressions," Papers 2103.03632, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2021.
    12. Pär Österholm & Aubrey Poon, 2023. "Trend Inflation in Sweden," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 4707-4716, October.
    13. Nikita D. Fokin & Ekaterina V. Malikova & Andrey V. Polbin, 2024. "Time-varying parameters error correction model for real ruble exchange rate and oil prices: What has changed due to capital control and sanctions?," Russian Journal of Economics, ARPHA Platform, vol. 10(1), pages 20-33, March.
    14. Marcelo Arbex & Sidney Caetano & Wilson Correa, 2018. "Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Target Uncertainty Shocks," Working Papers 1804, University of Windsor, Department of Economics.
    15. Jmaes McNeil, 2020. "Monetary policy and the term structure of Inflation expectations with information frictions," Working Papers daleconwp2020-07, Dalhousie University, Department of Economics.
    16. Kamber, Güneş & Wong, Benjamin, 2020. "Global factors and trend inflation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    17. Diegel, Max & Nautz, Dieter, 2021. "Long-term inflation expectations and the transmission of monetary policy shocks: Evidence from a SVAR analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    18. Saeed Zaman, 2021. "A Unified Framework to Estimate Macroeconomic Stars," Working Papers 21-23R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 15 Aug 2022.
    19. Hauber, Philipp & Schumacher, Christian, 2021. "Precision-based sampling with missing observations: A factor model application," Discussion Papers 11/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    20. Andriantomanga, Zo, 2023. "The role of survey-based expectations in real-time forecasting of US inflation," MPRA Paper 119904, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Bańbura, Marta & Leiva-León, Danilo & Menz, Jan-Oliver, 2021. "Do inflation expectations improve model-based inflation forecasts?," Discussion Papers 48/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    22. Murasawa, Yasutomo, 2019. "Bayesian multivariate Beveridge--Nelson decomposition of I(1) and I(2) series with cointegration," MPRA Paper 91979, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena, 2020. "PCCI – a data-rich measure of underlying inflation in the euro area," Statistics Paper Series 38, European Central Bank.
    24. Marek Jarociński & Michele Lenza, 2018. "An Inflation‐Predicting Measure of the Output Gap in the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(6), pages 1189-1224, September.
    25. Tallman, Ellis W. & Zaman, Saeed, 2017. "Forecasting inflation: Phillips curve effects on services price measures," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 442-457.
    26. Beechey, Meredith & Österholm, Pär & Poon, Aubrey, 2023. "Estimating the US trend short-term interest rate," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
    27. Jaromir Baxa & Miroslav Plasil & Borek Vasicek, 2013. "Inflation and the Steeplechase Between Economic Activity Variables," Working Papers 2013/15, Czech National Bank.
    28. Diegel, Max & Nautz, Dieter, 2020. "The role of long-term inflation expectations for the transmission of monetary policy shocks," Discussion Papers 2020/19, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    29. Chew Lian Chua & Tim Robinson, 2018. "Why Has Australian Wages Growth Been So Low? A Phillips Curve Perspective," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 94(S1), pages 11-32, June.
    30. Lukmanova, Elizaveta & Rabitsch, Katrin, 2018. "New VAR evidence on monetary transmission channels: temporary interest rate versus inflation target shocks," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 274, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    31. Takushi Kurozumi & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2020. "Macroeconomic Changes with Declining Trend Inflation: Complementarity with the Superstar Firm Hypothesis," Working Papers 20-35, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    32. Fu, Bowen, 2020. "Is the slope of the Phillips curve time-varying? Evidence from unobserved components models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 320-340.
    33. Kristin Forbes, 2019. "Has globalization changed the inflation process?," BIS Working Papers 791, Bank for International Settlements.
    34. Marta Banbura & Andries van Vlodrop, 2018. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions with Time Variation in the Mean," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-025/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    35. Koester, Gerrit & Lis, Eliza & Nickel, Christiane & Osbat, Chiara & Smets, Frank, 2021. "Understanding low inflation in the euro area from 2013 to 2019: cyclical and structural drivers," Occasional Paper Series 280, European Central Bank.
    36. Aubrey Poon, 2018. "Assessing the Synchronicity and Nature of Australian State Business Cycles," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 94(307), pages 372-390, December.
    37. James Mitchell & Saeed Zaman, 2023. "The Distributional Predictive Content of Measures of Inflation Expectations," Working Papers 23-31, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    38. Lukmanova, Elizaveta & Rabitsch, Katrin, 2023. "Evidence on monetary transmission and the role of imperfect information: Interest rate versus inflation target shocks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    39. Mengheng Li & Siem Jan Koopman, 2021. "Unobserved components with stochastic volatility: Simulation‐based estimation and signal extraction," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 614-627, August.
    40. Manuel M. F. Martins & Fabio Verona, 2020. "Forecasting Inflation with the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Frequency Matters," CEF.UP Working Papers 2001, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    41. Martins, Manuel Mota Freitas & Verona, Fabio, 2021. "Inflation dynamics and forecast: Frequency matters," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/2021, Bank of Finland.
    42. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena, 2023. "Does the Phillips curve help to forecast euro area inflation?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 364-390.
    43. Chen, Ji & Yang, Xinglin & Liu, Xiliang, 2022. "Learning, disagreement and inflation forecasting," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    44. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2023. "Forecasting inflation with a zero lower bound or negative interest rates: Evidence from point and density forecasts," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 91(3), pages 171-232, June.
    45. Andrew B. Martinez, 2020. "Extracting Information from Different Expectations," Working Papers 2020-008, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    46. Hauzenberger, Niko & Huber, Florian & Klieber, Karin, 2023. "Real-time inflation forecasting using non-linear dimension reduction techniques," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 901-921.
    47. Semmler, Willi & Gross, Marco, 2017. "Mind the output gap: the disconnect of growth and inflation during recessions and convex Phillips curves in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2004, European Central Bank.
    48. N. Kundan Kishor & Evan F. Koenig, 2016. "The roles of inflation expectations, core inflation, and slack in real-time inflation forecasting," Working Papers 1613, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    49. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2022. "A Neural Phillips Curve and a Deep Output Gap," Working Papers 22-01, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.
    50. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench & Bruce Preston, 2021. "The Term Structure of Expectations," Staff Reports 992, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    51. Bowen Fu, Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz, 2023. "Structural shocks and trend inflation," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2023_04, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    52. Martin Feldkircher & Pierre L. Siklos, 2018. "Global inflation dynamics and inflation expectations," CAMA Working Papers 2018-60, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    53. Cecchetti, Stephen & Feroli, Michael & Hooper, Peter & Kashyap, Anil & Schoenholtz, Kermit L., 2017. "Deflating Inflation Expectations: The Implications of Inflation’s Simple Dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers 11925, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    54. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2022. "A Neural Phillips Curve and a Deep Output Gap," Papers 2202.04146, arXiv.org.
    55. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Pedro Mendes Garcia & José Valentim Machado Vicente, 2021. "Rationality and anchoring of inflation expectations: An assessment from survey‐based and market‐based measures," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(6), pages 1027-1053, September.

  32. Joshua C.C. Chan, 2015. "The Stochastic Volatility in Mean Model with Time-Varying Parameters: An Application to Inflation Modeling," CAMA Working Papers 2015-07, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Joshua C. C. Chan & Xuewen Yu, 2022. "Fast and Accurate Variational Inference for Large Bayesian VARs with Stochastic Volatility," Papers 2206.08438, arXiv.org.
    2. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2018. "Dynamic Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Macroeconomic Volatility," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2018/21, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    3. Joshua C.C. Chan & Angelia L. Grant, 2014. "Issues in Comparing Stochastic Volatility Models Using the Deviance Information Criterion," CAMA Working Papers 2014-51, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    4. Dimitrakopoulos, Stefanos & Dey, Dipak K., 2017. "Discrete-response state space models with conditional heteroscedasticity: An application to forecasting the federal funds rate target," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 20-23.
    5. Liyuan Chen & Paola Zerilli & Christopher F Baum, 2018. "Leverage effects and stochastic volatility in spot oil returns: A Bayesian approach with VaR and CVaR applications," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 953, Boston College Department of Economics.
    6. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Cornel Oros, 2020. "Inflation, uncertainty, and labour market conditions in the US," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(52), pages 5770-5782, November.
    7. Nicolas Himounet, 2021. "Searching for the Nature of Uncertainty: Macroeconomic VS Financial," Working Papers 2021.05, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    8. Michael Pfarrhofer, 2021. "Modeling tail risks of inflation using unobserved component quantile regressions," Papers 2103.03632, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2021.
    9. Fernandes, Cecilia Melo, 2021. "ECB communication as a stabilization and coordination device: evidence from ex-ante inflation uncertainty," Working Paper Series 2582, European Central Bank.
    10. Dominik Bertsche & Robin Braun, 2018. "Identification of Structural Vector Autoregressions by Stochastic Volatility," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2018-03, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    11. Dimitrakopoulos, Stefanos, 2017. "Semiparametric Bayesian inference for time-varying parameter regression models with stochastic volatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 10-14.
    12. Abanto-Valle, Carlos A. & Rodríguez, Gabriel & Garrafa-Aragón, Hernán B., 2021. "Stochastic Volatility in Mean: Empirical evidence from Latin-American stock markets using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and Riemann Manifold HMC methods," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 272-286.
    13. Nonejad Nima, 2015. "Particle Gibbs with ancestor sampling for stochastic volatility models with: heavy tails, in mean effects, leverage, serial dependence and structural breaks," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(5), pages 561-584, December.
    14. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2019. "Assessing Nowcast Accuracy of US GDP Growth in Real Time: The Role of Booms and Busts," Working Papers 2019/01, Latvijas Banka.
    15. Luis Uzeda, 2018. "State Correlation and Forecasting: A Bayesian Approach Using Unobserved Components Models," Staff Working Papers 18-14, Bank of Canada.
    16. Terence D. Agbeyegbe, 2023. "The Link Between Output Growth and Output Growth Volatility: Barbados," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 787-804, June.
    17. Jamie L. Cross & Chenghan Hou & Aubrey Poon, 2018. "International Transmission of Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Small Open Economies: An Empirical Approach," Working Papers No 12/2018, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    18. Joshua C C Chan & Yong Song, 2017. "Measuring inflation expectations uncertainty using high-frequency data," CAMA Working Papers 2017-61, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    19. Li, Chenxing & Maheu, John M & Yang, Qiao, 2022. "An Infinite Hidden Markov Model with Stochastic Volatility," MPRA Paper 115456, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Wang, Shixuan & Wohar, Mark E., 2020. "Oil price uncertainty and movements in the US government bond risk premia," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    21. Kristin Forbes & Lewis Kirkham & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2021. "A Trendy Approach to UK Inflation Dynamics," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 89(S1), pages 23-75, September.
    22. Saeed Zaman, 2021. "A Unified Framework to Estimate Macroeconomic Stars," Working Papers 21-23R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 15 Aug 2022.
    23. Diego Ferreira & Andreza Aparecida Palma, 2018. "Inflation And Inflation Uncertainty In Latin America: A Time-Varying Stochastic Volatility In Mean Approach," Anais do XLIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 44th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 125, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    24. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, 2017. "The nexus between the oil price and its volatility in a stochastic volatility in mean model with time-varying parameters," Working Papers 15-33, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    25. Philipp Otto & Osman Dou{g}an & Suleyman Tac{s}p{i}nar & Wolfgang Schmid & Anil K. Bera, 2023. "Spatial and Spatiotemporal Volatility Models: A Review," Papers 2308.13061, arXiv.org.
    26. Kiss, Tamás & Mazur, Stepan & Nguyen, Hoang & Österholm, Pär, 2021. "Modelling the Relation between the US Real Economy and the Corporate Bond-Yield Spread in Bayesian VARs with non-Gaussian Disturbances," Working Papers 2021:9, Örebro University, School of Business.
    27. Christophe Chesneau & Salima El Kolei & Fabien Navarro, 2022. "Parametric estimation of hidden Markov models by least squares type estimation and deconvolution," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 63(5), pages 1615-1648, October.
    28. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Grant, Angelia L., 2016. "Modeling energy price dynamics: GARCH versus stochastic volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 182-189.
    29. Yong Jiang & Chao-Qun Ma & Xiao-Guang Yang & Yi-Shuai Ren, 2018. "Time-Varying Volatility Feedback of Energy Prices: Evidence from Crude Oil, Petroleum Products, and Natural Gas Using a TVP-SVM Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-17, December.
    30. Mamatzakis, Emmanuel C. & Ongena, Steven & Tsionas, Mike G., 2021. "Does alternative finance moderate bank fragility? Evidence from the euro area," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    31. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Poon, Aubrey & Zhu, Dan, 2023. "High-dimensional conditionally Gaussian state space models with missing data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).
    32. Nonejad, Nima, 2018. "Déjà vol oil? Predicting S&P 500 equity premium using crude oil price volatility: Evidence from old and recent time-series data," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 260-270.
    33. Emanuela Ciapanna & Marco Taboga, 2011. "Bayesian analysis of coefficient instability in dynamic regressions," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 836, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    34. Kohns, David & Bhattacharjee, Arnab, 2023. "Nowcasting growth using Google Trends data: A Bayesian Structural Time Series model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1384-1412.
    35. Gregor Kastner & Sylvia Fruhwirth-Schnatter & Hedibert Freitas Lopes, 2016. "Efficient Bayesian Inference for Multivariate Factor Stochastic Volatility Models," Papers 1602.08154, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2017.
    36. Dimitrakopoulos, Stefanos, 2017. "The semiparametric asymmetric stochastic volatility model with time-varying parameters: The case of US inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 14-18.
    37. Nima Nonejad, 2020. "Does the price of crude oil help predict the conditional distribution of aggregate equity return?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 313-349, January.
    38. Jiang, Yong & Ren, Yi-Shuai & Ma, Chao-Qun & Liu, Jiang-Long & Sharp, Basil, 2020. "Does the price of strategic commodities respond to U.S. partisan conflict?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    39. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, 2020. "A re-examination of growth and growth uncertainty relationship in a stochastic volatility in the mean model with time-varying parameters," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(3), pages 611-641, August.
    40. Barnett William A. & Jawadi Fredj & Ftiti Zied, 2020. "Causal relationships between inflation and inflation uncertainty," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(5), pages 1-26, December.
    41. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Marcellino Massimiliano, 2016. "Measuring Uncertainty and Its Impact on the Economy," Working Papers (Old Series) 1622, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    42. Vivek Sharma & Edgar Silgado-Gómez, 2019. "Sovereign Spread Volatility and Banking Sector," CEIS Research Paper 454, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 08 Mar 2019.
    43. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin, 2019. "The nexus between the oil price and its volatility risk in a stochastic volatility in the mean model with time-varying parameters," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 572-584.
    44. Ahsan, Md. Nazmul & Dufour, Jean-Marie, 2021. "Simple estimators and inference for higher-order stochastic volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 224(1), pages 181-197.
    45. Verbrugge, Randal & Zaman, Saeed, 2024. "Improving inflation forecasts using robust measures," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 735-745.
    46. Joshua C.C. Chan & Todd E. Clark & Gary Koop, 2018. "A New Model of Inflation, Trend Inflation, and Long‐Run Inflation Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(1), pages 5-53, February.
    47. Florian Huber & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2021. "Dynamic shrinkage in time‐varying parameter stochastic volatility in mean models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(2), pages 262-270, March.
    48. Armin Pourkhanali & Jonathan Keith & Xibin Zhang, 2021. "Conditional Heteroscedasticity Models with Time-Varying Parameters: Estimation and Asymptotics," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 15/21, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    49. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin, 2019. "The volatility effect on precious metals price returns in a stochastic volatility in mean model with time-varying parameters," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 534(C).
    50. Dima, Bogdan & Dima, Ştefana Maria, 2017. "Mutual information and persistence in the stochastic volatility of market returns: An emergent market example," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 36-59.
    51. Grant, Angelia L., 2018. "The Great Recession and Okun's law," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 291-300.
    52. Arce-Alfaro, Gabriel & Blagov, Boris, 2021. "Monetary policy uncertainty and inflation expectations," Ruhr Economic Papers 899, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    53. Leopoldo Catania & Nima Nonejad, 2016. "Density Forecasts and the Leverage Effect: Some Evidence from Observation and Parameter-Driven Volatility Models," Papers 1605.00230, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2016.
    54. Michael Pfarrhofer, 2019. "Measuring international uncertainty using global vector autoregressions with drifting parameters," Papers 1908.06325, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2019.
    55. Markku Lanne & Jani Luoto, 2017. "A New Time‐Varying Parameter Autoregressive Model for U.S. Inflation Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(5), pages 969-995, August.
    56. Mengheng Li & Siem Jan Koopman, 2021. "Unobserved components with stochastic volatility: Simulation‐based estimation and signal extraction," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 614-627, August.
    57. Cross, Jamie L. & Hou, Chenghan & Koop, Gary & Poon, Aubrey, 2023. "Large stochastic volatility in mean VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).
    58. Carlos A. Abanto-Valle & Gabriel Rodríguez & Hernán B. Garrafa-Aragón, 2020. "Stochastic Volatility in Mean: Empirical Evidence from Stock Latin American Markets," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2020-481, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    59. Zied Ftiti & Fredj Jawadi, 2019. "Forecasting Inflation Uncertainty in the United States and Euro Area," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 54(1), pages 455-476, June.
    60. David Kohns & Arnab Bhattacharjee, 2020. "Nowcasting Growth using Google Trends Data: A Bayesian Structural Time Series Model," Papers 2011.00938, arXiv.org, revised May 2022.
    61. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2020. "Large Bayesian VARs: A Flexible Kronecker Error Covariance Structure," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 68-79, January.
    62. Emmanuel C. Mamatzakis & Mike G. Tsionas, 2021. "A Bayesian panel stochastic volatility measure of financial stability," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5363-5384, October.
    63. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Cisil Sarisoy & Juan M. Londono & Bo Sun & Deepa D. Datta & Thiago Ferreira & Olesya Grishchenko & Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Francesca Loria & Sai Ma & Marius Rodriguez & Ilk, 2023. "What Is Certain about Uncertainty?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(2), pages 624-654, June.
    64. Yunyun Wang & Tatsushi Oka & Dan Zhu, 2024. "Inflation Target at Risk: A Time-varying Parameter Distributional Regression," Papers 2403.12456, arXiv.org.
    65. María T. González-Pérez, 2021. "Lessons from estimating the average option-implied volatility term structure for the Spanish banking sector," Working Papers 2128, Banco de España.
    66. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2019. "Large Bayesian vector autoregressions," CAMA Working Papers 2019-19, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    67. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, 2018. "The volatility effect on precious metals prices in a stochastic volatility in mean model with time-varying parameters," Working Papers 15-34, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    68. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Stephen M. Miller & Rangan Gupta, 2019. "Time–frequency relationship between US inflation and inflation uncertainty: evidence from historical data," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(5), pages 673-702, November.
    69. Hauzenberger, Niko & Huber, Florian & Klieber, Karin, 2023. "Real-time inflation forecasting using non-linear dimension reduction techniques," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 901-921.
    70. Romain Aumond & Julien Royer, 2024. "Improving the robustness of Markov-switching dynamic factor models with time-varying volatility," Working Papers 2024-04, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    71. Dominik Bertsche, 2019. "The effects of oil supply shocks on the macroeconomy: a Proxy-FAVAR approachThe effects of oil supply shocks on the macroeconomy: a Proxy-FAVAR approach," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2019-06, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    72. Jamie L. Cross & Chenghan Hou & Gary Koop, 2021. "Macroeconomic Forecasting with Large Stochastic Volatility in Mean VARs," Working Papers No 04/2021, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    73. Awijen, Haithem & Ben Zaied, Younes & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Sensoy, Ahmet, 2020. "Endogenous Financial Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Volatility: Evidence from the United States," MPRA Paper 101276, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2020.
    74. Kim C. Raath & Katherine B. Ensor, 2023. "Wavelet-L2E Stochastic Volatility Models: an Application to the Water-Energy Nexus," Sankhya B: The Indian Journal of Statistics, Springer;Indian Statistical Institute, vol. 85(1), pages 150-176, May.
    75. Nima Nonejad, 2019. "Has the 2008 financial crisis and its aftermath changed the impact of inflation on inflation uncertainty in member states of the european monetary union?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(2), pages 246-276, May.
    76. Nonejad, Nima, 2014. "Particle Gibbs with Ancestor Sampling Methods for Unobserved Component Time Series Models with Heavy Tails, Serial Dependence and Structural Breaks," MPRA Paper 55664, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    77. Jean Pierre Fernández Prada Saucedo & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2020. "Modeling the Volatility of Returns on Commodities: An Application and Empirical Comparison of GARCH and SV Models," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2020-484, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    78. Joshua C. C. Chan & Angelia L. Grant, 2016. "On the Observed-Data Deviance Information Criterion for Volatility Modeling," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(4), pages 772-802.
    79. Yong Jiang & Yi-Shuai Ren & Chao-Qun Ma & Jiang-Long Liu & Basil Sharp, 2018. "Does the price of strategic commodities respond to U.S. Partisan Conflict?," Papers 1810.08396, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2020.
    80. Doğan, Osman & Taşpınar, Süleyman & Bera, Anil K., 2021. "A Bayesian robust chi-squared test for testing simple hypotheses," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(2), pages 933-958.
    81. Smith, Michael Stanley & Maneesoonthorn, Worapree, 2018. "Inversion copulas from nonlinear state space models with an application to inflation forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 389-407.
    82. Nonejad, Nima, 2020. "Crude oil price volatility and equity return predictability: A comparative out-of-sample study," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    83. Fuest, Angela & Schmidt, Torsten, 2020. "Inflation expectation uncertainty in a New Keynesian framework," Ruhr Economic Papers 867, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    84. Markku Lanne & Jani Luoto, 2016. "Data-Driven Inference on Sign Restrictions in Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregression," CREATES Research Papers 2016-04, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    85. Nonejad Nima, 2016. "Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo Techniques of Unobserved Component Time Series Models Using Ox," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 55-90, January.
    86. Cross, Jamie & Poon, Aubrey, 2016. "Forecasting structural change and fat-tailed events in Australian macroeconomic variables," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 34-51.
    87. Hau, Liya & Zhu, Huiming & Huang, Rui & Ma, Xiang, 2020. "Heterogeneous dependence between crude oil price volatility and China’s agriculture commodity futures: Evidence from quantile-on-quantile regression," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    88. Kohns, David & Potjagailo, Galina, 2023. "Flexible Bayesian MIDAS: time‑variation, group‑shrinkage and sparsity," Bank of England working papers 1025, Bank of England.
    89. Osman Doğan & Süleyman Taşpınar & Anil K. Bera, 2021. "Bayesian estimation of stochastic tail index from high-frequency financial data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(5), pages 2685-2711, November.

  33. Joshua C.C. Chan & Angelia L. Grant, 2014. "Issues in Comparing Stochastic Volatility Models Using the Deviance Information Criterion," CAMA Working Papers 2014-51, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Joshua C.C. Chan & Angelia L. Grant, 2015. "Pitfalls of Estimating the Marginal Likelihood Using the Modified Harmonic Mean," CAMA Working Papers 2015-08, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Nonejad Nima, 2015. "Particle Gibbs with ancestor sampling for stochastic volatility models with: heavy tails, in mean effects, leverage, serial dependence and structural breaks," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(5), pages 561-584, December.
    3. Abdelhakim Aknouche, 2017. "Periodic autoregressive stochastic volatility," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 139-177, July.
    4. Joshua C.C. Chan, 2015. "Specification tests for time-varying parameter models with stochastic volatility," CAMA Working Papers 2015-42, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    5. Joshua C. C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat, 2018. "Bayesian model comparison for time‐varying parameter VARs with stochastic volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(4), pages 509-532, June.
    6. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Grant, Angelia L., 2016. "Modeling energy price dynamics: GARCH versus stochastic volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 182-189.
    7. Tao Zeng & Yong Li & Jun Yu, 2014. "Deviance Information Criterion for Comparing VAR Models," Working Papers 01-2014, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
    8. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2020. "Large Bayesian VARs: A Flexible Kronecker Error Covariance Structure," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 68-79, January.
    9. Aknouche, Abdelhakim, 2013. "Periodic autoregressive stochastic volatility," MPRA Paper 69571, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2015.
    10. Lu Yang & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2018. "Modeling The Dynamics Of International Agricultural Commodity Prices: A Comparison Of Garch And Stochastic Volatility Models," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(03), pages 1-20, September.

  34. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Eisenstat, Eric & Koop, Gary, 2014. "Large Bayesian VARMAs," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-06, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).

    Cited by:

    1. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2018. "Bayesian vector autoregressions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 87393, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Ricco, Giovanni & Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia, 2018. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 13396, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Joshua Chan & Luca Benati & Eric Eisenstat & Gary Koop, 2018. "Identifying Noise Shocks," Working Paper Series 41, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    4. Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat, 2015. "Efficient estimation of Bayesian VARMAs with time-varying coefficients," CAMA Working Papers 2015-19, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    5. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Poon, Aubrey & Zhu, Dan, 2023. "High-dimensional conditionally Gaussian state space models with missing data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).
    6. Leonardo N. Ferreira & Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2023. "Bayesian Local Projections," Working Papers 2023-04, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    7. Tsionas, Mike G. & Izzeldin, Marwan & Trapani, Lorenzo, 2022. "Estimation of large dimensional time varying VARs using copulas," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    8. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2020. "Large Bayesian VARs: A Flexible Kronecker Error Covariance Structure," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 68-79, January.
    9. Dufays, Arnaud & Rombouts, Jeroen V.K., 2020. "Relevant parameter changes in structural break models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 217(1), pages 46-78.
    10. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2019. "Large Bayesian vector autoregressions," CAMA Working Papers 2019-19, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    11. Dias, Gustavo Fruet & Kapetanios, George, 2018. "Estimation and forecasting in vector autoregressive moving average models for rich datasets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 75-91.
    12. Kerem Tuzcuoglu, 2019. "Composite Likelihood Estimation of an Autoregressive Panel Probit Model with Random Effects," Staff Working Papers 19-16, Bank of Canada.
    13. Mike Tsionas & Marwan Izzeldin & Lorenzo Trapani, 2019. "Bayesian estimation of large dimensional time varying VARs using copulas," Papers 1912.12527, arXiv.org.
    14. Matteo Iacopini & Luca Rossini, 2019. "Bayesian nonparametric graphical models for time-varying parameters VAR," Papers 1906.02140, arXiv.org.

  35. Joshua C.C. Chan & Angelia L. Grant, 2014. "Fast Computation of the Deviance Information Criterion for Latent Variable Models," CAMA Working Papers 2014-09, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Joshua C.C. Chan & Angelia L. Grant, 2014. "Issues in Comparing Stochastic Volatility Models Using the Deviance Information Criterion," CAMA Working Papers 2014-51, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Angelia L. Grant & Joshua C.C. Chan, 2017. "A Bayesian Model Comparison for Trend‐Cycle Decompositions of Output," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(2-3), pages 525-552, March.
    3. Dimitris Korobilis & Kenichi Shimizu, 2021. "Bayesian Approaches to Shrinkage and Sparse Estimation," Working Papers 2021_19, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    4. Diegel, Max, 2022. "Time-varying credibility, anchoring and the Fed's inflation target," Discussion Papers 2022/9, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    5. Joshua C C Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Gary Koop, 2014. "Large Bayesian VARMAs," Working Papers 1409, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    6. Liyuan Chen & Paola Zerilli & Christopher F Baum, 2018. "Leverage effects and stochastic volatility in spot oil returns: A Bayesian approach with VaR and CVaR applications," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 953, Boston College Department of Economics.
    7. Joshua C.C. Chan & Angelia L. Grant, 2015. "Pitfalls of Estimating the Marginal Likelihood Using the Modified Harmonic Mean," CAMA Working Papers 2015-08, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    8. Shang, Fei, 2022. "The effect of uncertainty on the sensitivity of the yield curve to monetary policy surprises," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    9. Madison Terrell & Qazi Haque & Jamie L. Cross & Firmin Doko Tchatoka, 2023. "Monetary policy shocks and exchange rate dynamics in small open economies," School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 2023-04 Classification-C3, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy.
    10. Gregor Kastner & Florian Huber, 2020. "Sparse Bayesian vector autoregressions in huge dimensions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(7), pages 1142-1165, November.
    11. Joshua C.C. Chan, 2015. "Specification tests for time-varying parameter models with stochastic volatility," CAMA Working Papers 2015-42, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    12. Joshua C. C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat, 2018. "Bayesian model comparison for time‐varying parameter VARs with stochastic volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(4), pages 509-532, June.
    13. Li, Yong & Yu, Jun & Zeng, Tao, 2018. "Integrated Deviance Information Criterion for Latent Variable Models," Economics and Statistics Working Papers 6-2018, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
    14. Hauber, Philipp & Schumacher, Christian, 2021. "Precision-based sampling with missing observations: A factor model application," Discussion Papers 11/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    15. Catherine Doz & Laurent Ferrara & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2020. "Business cycle dynamics after the Great Recession: An extended Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model," OECD Statistics Working Papers 2020/01, OECD Publishing.
    16. Arnab Kumar Maity & Sanjib Basu & Santu Ghosh, 2021. "Bayesian criterion‐based variable selection," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 70(4), pages 835-857, August.
    17. Gabriel Rodríguez & Renato Vassallo, 2022. "Time Evolution of External Shocks on Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Pacific Alliance Countries: Empirical Application using TVP-VAR-SV Models," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2022-508, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    18. Roberto Calero & Gabriel Rodríguez & Rodrigo Salcedo Cisneros, 2022. "Evolution of the Exchange Rate Pass-Throught into Prices in Peru: An Empirical Application Using TVP-VAR-SV Models," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2022-510, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    19. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Eisenstat, Eric, 2018. "Comparing hybrid time-varying parameter VARs," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 1-5.
    20. Cross, Jamie & Nguyen, Bao H., 2017. "The relationship between global oil price shocks and China's output: A time-varying analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 79-91.
    21. Adam, Marc C. & Jansson, Walter, 2019. "Credit constraints and the propagation of the Great Depression in Germany," Discussion Papers 2019/12, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    22. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2022. "Comparing Stochastic Volatility Specifications for Large Bayesian VARs," Papers 2208.13255, arXiv.org.
    23. Simon Beyeler & Sylvia Kaufmann, 2021. "Reduced‐form factor augmented VAR—Exploiting sparsity to include meaningful factors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(7), pages 989-1012, November.
    24. Bresson Georges & Chaturvedi Anoop & Rahman Mohammad Arshad & Shalabh, 2021. "Seemingly unrelated regression with measurement error: estimation via Markov Chain Monte Carlo and mean field variational Bayes approximation," The International Journal of Biostatistics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 75-97, May.
    25. Junior A. Ojeda Cunya & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2022. "Time-Varying Effects of External Shocks on Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Peru: An Empirical Application using TVP-VAR- SV Models," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2022-507, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    26. Li, Yong & Yu, Jun & Zeng, Tao, 2020. "Deviance information criterion for latent variable models and misspecified models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 216(2), pages 450-493.
    27. Fang Liu & Xiaojing Wang & Roeland Hancock & Ming-Hui Chen, 2022. "Bayesian Model Assessment for Jointly Modeling Multidimensional Response Data with Application to Computerized Testing," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 87(4), pages 1290-1317, December.
    28. Ye Yang & Osman Doğan & Süleyman Taşpınar, 2023. "Observed-data DIC for spatial panel data models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(3), pages 1281-1314, March.
    29. Oludare Ariyo & Emmanuel Lesaffre & Geert Verbeke & Martijn Huisman & Martijn Heymans & Jos Twisk, 2022. "Bayesian model selection for multilevel mediation models," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 76(2), pages 219-235, May.
    30. Nima Nonejad, 2019. "Has the 2008 financial crisis and its aftermath changed the impact of inflation on inflation uncertainty in member states of the european monetary union?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(2), pages 246-276, May.
    31. Melolinna, Marko & Tóth, Máté, 2019. "Trend and cycle shocks in Bayesian unobserved components models for UK productivity," Bank of England working papers 826, Bank of England.
    32. Joshua C. C. Chan & Angelia L. Grant, 2016. "On the Observed-Data Deviance Information Criterion for Volatility Modeling," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(4), pages 772-802.
    33. Rodríguez, Gabriel & Vassallo, Renato & Castillo B., Paul, 2023. "Effects of external shocks on macroeconomic fluctuations in Pacific Alliance countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    34. Oludare Ariyo & Emmanuel Lesaffre & Geert Verbeke & Adrian Quintero, 2022. "Bayesian Model Selection for Longitudinal Count Data," Sankhya B: The Indian Journal of Statistics, Springer;Indian Statistical Institute, vol. 84(2), pages 516-547, November.
    35. Gong, Xiao-Li & Liu, Xi-Hua & Xiong, Xiong & Zhuang, Xin-Tian, 2018. "Modeling volatility dynamics using non-Gaussian stochastic volatility model based on band matrix routine," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 193-201.
    36. Ramis Khabibullin, 2019. "What measures of real economic activity slack are helpful for forecasting Russian inflation?," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps50, Bank of Russia.
    37. Mauricio Alvarado & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2024. "Time-Varying Effects of Financial Uncertainty Shocks on Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Peru," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2024-531, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    38. Alexander Meléndez Holguín & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2023. "Evolution over time of the effects of fiscal shocks in the peruvian economy: empirical application using TVP-VAR-SV models," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2023-516, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.

  36. Joshua C.C. Chan & Rodney Strachan, 2014. "The Zero Lower Bound: Implications for Modelling the Interest Rate," Working Paper series 42_14, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.

    Cited by:

    1. Efrem Castelnuovo & Giovanni Caggiano & Giovanni Pellegrino, 2015. "Estimating the Real Effects of Uncertainty Shocks at the Zero Lower Bound," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0200, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    2. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino & Elmar Mertens, 2021. "Forecasting with Shadow-Rate VARs," Working Papers 21-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    3. Eric Eisenstat & Joshua C.C. Chan & Rodney Strachan, 2014. "Stochastic Model Specification Search for Time-Varying Parameter VARs," Working Paper series 44_14, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    4. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin, 2019. "The volatility effect on precious metals price returns in a stochastic volatility in mean model with time-varying parameters," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 534(C).
    5. Benjamin K. Johannsen & Elmar Mertens, 2021. "A Time‐Series Model of Interest Rates with the Effective Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(5), pages 1005-1046, August.
    6. Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd E. & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Mertens, Elmar, 2023. "Shadow-rate VARs," Discussion Papers 14/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2017. "The Stochastic Volatility in Mean Model With Time-Varying Parameters: An Application to Inflation Modeling," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 17-28, January.
    8. Benjamin Garcia & Arsenios Skaperdas, 2017. "Inferring the Shadow Rate from Real Activity," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-106, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

  37. Eric Eisenstat & Joshua C.C. Chan & Rodney W. Strachan, 2014. "Stochastic Model Specification Search for Time-Varying Parameter VARs," CAMA Working Papers 2014-23, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Karlsson, Sune & Österholm, Pär, 2018. "Is the US Phillips Curve Stable? Evidence from Bayesian VARs," Working Papers 2018:5, Örebro University, School of Business.
    2. Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis & Davide Pettenuzzo, 2017. "Bayesian Compressed Vector Autoregressions," Working Paper series 17-32, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    3. Bitto, Angela & Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia, 2019. "Achieving shrinkage in a time-varying parameter model framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 210(1), pages 75-97.
    4. Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Gary Koop, 2020. "Dynamic Shrinkage Priors for Large Time-varying Parameter Regressions using Scalable Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods," Papers 2005.03906, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
    5. Martin Feldkircher & Nico Hauzenberger, 2019. "How useful are time-varying parameter models for forecasting economic growth in CESEE?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q1/19, pages 29-48.
    6. Joshua C.C. Chan, 2015. "Specification tests for time-varying parameter models with stochastic volatility," CAMA Working Papers 2015-42, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    7. Joshua C. C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat, 2018. "Bayesian model comparison for time‐varying parameter VARs with stochastic volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(4), pages 509-532, June.
    8. Barbara Rossi, 2019. "Forecasting in the presence of instabilities: How do we know whether models predict well and how to improve them," Economics Working Papers 1711, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2021.
    9. Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat, 2015. "Efficient estimation of Bayesian VARMAs with time-varying coefficients," CAMA Working Papers 2015-19, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    10. Florian Huber & Gregor Kastner & Martin Feldkircher, 2019. "Should I stay or should I go? A latent threshold approach to large‐scale mixture innovation models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(5), pages 621-640, August.
    11. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2022. "Asymmetric conjugate priors for large Bayesian VARs," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(3), pages 1145-1169, July.
    12. Korobilis, Dimitris, 2014. "Data-based priors for vector autoregressions with drifting coefficients," MPRA Paper 53772, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Belomestny, Denis & Krymova, Ekaterina & Polbin, Andrey, 2021. "Bayesian TVP-VARX models with time invariant long-run multipliers," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    14. Mike G. Tsionas, 2016. "Alternative Bayesian compression in Vector Autoregressions and related models," Working Papers 216, Bank of Greece.
    15. Lin Liu, 2022. "Economic Uncertainty and Exchange Market Pressure: Evidence From China," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(1), pages 21582440211, January.
    16. Lopes, Hedibert F. & McCulloch, Robert E. & Tsay, Ruey S., 2022. "Parsimony inducing priors for large scale state–space models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 230(1), pages 39-61.
    17. Williams Ohemeng & Elvis Kwame Agyapong & Kenneth Ofori-Boateng, 2021. "Exchange rate and inflation dynamics: does the month or quarter of the year matter?," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(6), pages 1-24, June.
    18. Marta Banbura & Andries van Vlodrop, 2018. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions with Time Variation in the Mean," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-025/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    19. Huber, Florian & Kastner, Gregor & Feldkircher, Martin, 2016. "Should I stay or should I go? Bayesian inference in the threshold time varying parameter (TTVP) model," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 235, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    20. Michael O’Grady, 2019. "Estimating the Output, Inflation and Unemployment Gaps in Ireland using Bayesian Model Averaging," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 50(1), pages 35-76.
    21. Annalisa Cadonna & Sylvia Fruhwirth-Schnatter & Peter Knaus, 2019. "Triple the gamma -- A unifying shrinkage prior for variance and variable selection in sparse state space and TVP models," Papers 1912.03100, arXiv.org.
    22. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Eisenstat, Eric & Strachan, Rodney W., 2020. "Reducing the state space dimension in a large TVP-VAR," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 218(1), pages 105-118.
    23. Dufays, Arnaud & Rombouts, Jeroen V.K., 2020. "Relevant parameter changes in structural break models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 217(1), pages 46-78.
    24. Annalisa Cadonna & Sylvia Frühwirth-Schnatter & Peter Knaus, 2020. "Triple the Gamma—A Unifying Shrinkage Prior for Variance and Variable Selection in Sparse State Space and TVP Models," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-36, May.
    25. Eric Eisenstat & Joshua C.C. Chan & Rodney W. Strachan, 2018. "Reducing Dimensions in a Large TVP-VAR," Working Paper Series 43, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    26. Phan, Tuan, 2016. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Aggressive, But Less Effective Over Time?," MPRA Paper 107200, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    27. Sylvia Fruhwirth-Schnatter & Peter Knaus, 2022. "Sparse Bayesian State-Space and Time-Varying Parameter Models," Papers 2207.12147, arXiv.org.
    28. Dawid J. van Lill, 2017. "Changes in the Liquidity Effect Over Time: Evidence from Four Monetary Policy Regimes," Working Papers 704, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    29. Mike G. Tsionas, 2016. "Alternatives to large VAR, VARMA and multivariate stochastic volatility models," Working Papers 217, Bank of Greece.
    30. Gong, Xiao-Li & Liu, Xi-Hua & Xiong, Xiong & Zhuang, Xin-Tian, 2019. "Non-Gaussian VARMA model with stochastic volatility and applications in stock market bubbles," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 129-136.
    31. Legrand, Romain, 2018. "Time-Varying Vector Autoregressions: Efficient Estimation, Random Inertia and Random Mean," MPRA Paper 88925, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    32. Reusens Peter & Croux Christophe, 2017. "Detecting time variation in the price puzzle: a less informative prior choice for time varying parameter VAR models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(4), pages 1-18, September.
    33. Emmanuel C. Mamatzakis & Steven Ongena & Mike G. Tsionas, 2023. "The response of household debt to COVID-19 using a neural networks VAR in OECD," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 65-91, July.
    34. Assaf, A. George & Tsionas, Mike G., 2019. "Forecasting occupancy rate with Bayesian compression methods," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 439-449.
    35. Stefano Grassi & Miguel Leon-Ledesma & Filippo Ferroni, 2016. "Fundamental shock selection in DSGE models," 2016 Meeting Papers 47, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    36. Cross, Jamie, 2019. "On the reduced macroeconomic volatility of the Australian economy: Good policy or good luck?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 174-186.
    37. Liu, Junbin & Liu, Xiaoxing & Shi, Guangping, 2019. "What influences portfolio contagion among open-end mutual funds?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 145-152.
    38. Joshua C.C. Chan & Angelia L. Grant, 2014. "Fast Computation of the Deviance Information Criterion for Latent Variable Models," CAMA Working Papers 2014-09, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    39. Filippo Ferroni & Stefano Grassi & Miguel A. León-Ledesma, 2017. "Selecting Primal Innovations in DSGE models," Working Paper Series WP-2017-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

  38. Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat, 2013. "Gibbs Samplers for VARMA and Its Extensions," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2013-604, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Tsionas, Mike G. & Izzeldin, Marwan & Trapani, Lorenzo, 2022. "Estimation of large dimensional time varying VARs using copulas," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    2. Mike Tsionas & Marwan Izzeldin & Lorenzo Trapani, 2019. "Bayesian estimation of large dimensional time varying VARs using copulas," Papers 1912.12527, arXiv.org.

  39. Joshua C.C. Chan & Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & Rodney W. Strachan, 2013. "Invariant Inference and Efficient Computation in the Static Factor Model," CAMA Working Papers 2013-32, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Simon Beyeler & Sylvia Kaufmann, 2016. "Factor augmented VAR revisited - A sparse dynamic factor model approach," Working Papers 16.08, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    2. Nalan Basturk & Agnieszka Borowska & Stefano Grassi & Lennart Hoogerheide & Herman K. van Dijk, 2018. "Forecast Density Combinations of Dynamic Models and Data Driven Portfolio Strategies," Working Paper 2018/10, Norges Bank.
    3. Dimitris Korobilis & Kenichi Shimizu, 2021. "Bayesian Approaches to Shrinkage and Sparse Estimation," Working Papers 2021_19, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    4. Joshua Chan & Arnaud Doucet & Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & Rodney W. Strachan, 2018. "Multivariate Stochastic Volatility with Co-Heteroscedasticity," GRIPS Discussion Papers 18-12, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
    5. Poncela Blanco, Maria Pilar & Ruiz Ortega, Esther & Miranda Gualdrón, Karen Alejandra, 2020. "Factor extraction using Kalman filter and smoothing: this is not just another survey," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 30644, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    6. KiHoon Jimmy Hong & Bin Peng & Xiaohui Zhang, 2015. "Capturing the Impact of Unobserved Sector-Wide Shocks on Stock Returns with Panel Data Model," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 91(295), pages 495-508, December.
    7. Hauber, Philipp & Schumacher, Christian, 2021. "Precision-based sampling with missing observations: A factor model application," Discussion Papers 11/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Mengheng Li & Marcel Scharth, 2022. "Leverage, Asymmetry, and Heavy Tails in the High-Dimensional Factor Stochastic Volatility Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 285-301, January.
    9. KiHoon Jimmy Hong & Bin Peng & Xiaohui Zhang, 2014. "Capturing the Impact of Latent Industry-Wide Shocks with Dynamic Panel Model," Research Paper Series 347, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    10. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Eisenstat, Eric & Strachan, Rodney W., 2020. "Reducing the state space dimension in a large TVP-VAR," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 218(1), pages 105-118.
    11. Aßmann, Christian & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Pape, Markus, 2014. "Bayesian analysis of dynamic factor models: An ex-post approach towards the rotation problem," Kiel Working Papers 1902, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    12. Simon Beyeler & Sylvia Kaufmann, 2021. "Reduced‐form factor augmented VAR—Exploiting sparsity to include meaningful factors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(7), pages 989-1012, November.
    13. Eric Eisenstat & Joshua C.C. Chan & Rodney W. Strachan, 2018. "Reducing Dimensions in a Large TVP-VAR," Working Paper Series 43, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    14. Sylvia Kaufmann & Christian Schumacher, 2013. "Bayesian estimation of sparse dynamic factor models with order-independent identification," Working Papers 13.04, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    15. Bin Peng & Giovanni Forchini, 2014. "Consistent Estimation of Panel Data Models with a Multifactor Error Structure when the Cross Section Dimension is Large," Working Paper Series 20, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    16. Joshua Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Xuewen Yu, 2022. "Large Bayesian VARs with Factor Stochastic Volatility: Identification, Order Invariance and Structural Analysis," Papers 2207.03988, arXiv.org.
    17. Joshua C.C. Chan & Rodney W. Strachan, 2023. "Bayesian State Space Models In Macroeconometrics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 58-75, February.
    18. Sylvia Fruhwirth-Schnatter & Darjus Hosszejni & Hedibert Freitas Lopes, 2023. "When it counts -- Econometric identification of the basic factor model based on GLT structures," Papers 2301.06354, arXiv.org.
    19. Sylvia Kaufmann & Markus Pape, 2023. "Bayesian (non-)unique sparse factor modelling," Working Papers 23.04, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.

  40. Joshua C.C. Chan & Cody Yu-Ling Hsiao & Renée A. Fry-McKibbin, 2013. "A Regime Switching Skew-normal Model for Measuring Financial Crisis and Contagion," CAMA Working Papers 2013-15, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Cody Yu-Ling Hsiao & James Morley, 2015. "Debt and Financial Market Contagion," Discussion Papers 2015-02, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    2. Renée Fry-McKibbin & Cody Hsiao & Chrismin Tang, 2014. "Contagion and Global Financial Crises: Lessons from Nine Crisis Episodes," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 521-570, July.
    3. Hsiao, Cody Yu-Ling & Chen, Hsing Hung, 2018. "The contagious effects on economic development after resuming construction policy for nuclear power plants in Coastal China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 291-302.

  41. Joshua C.C. Chan & Gary Koop, 2013. "Modelling Breaks and Clusters in the Steady States of Macroeconomic Variables," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2013-603, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Tallman, Ellis W. & Zaman, Saeed, 2020. "Combining survey long-run forecasts and nowcasts with BVAR forecasts using relative entropy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 373-398.
    2. Chiara Perricone, 2013. "Clustering Macroeconomic Variables," CEIS Research Paper 283, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 11 Jun 2013.
    3. Louzis Dimitrios P., 2016. "Steady-state priors and Bayesian variable selection in VAR forecasting," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(5), pages 495-527, December.
    4. Mark Fisher & Mark J. Jensen, 2018. "Bayesian Inference and Prediction of a Multiple-Change-Point Panel Model with Nonparametric Priors," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2018-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    5. Maximo Camacho & María Dolores Gadea & Ana Gómez Loscos, 2022. "A New Approach to Dating the Reference Cycle," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 66-81, January.
    6. Dimitrios P. Louzis, 2019. "Steady‐state modeling and macroeconomic forecasting quality," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(2), pages 285-314, March.
    7. Dimitrios P. Louzis, 2016. "Macroeconomic forecasting and structural changes in steady states," Working Papers 204, Bank of Greece.

  42. Joshua C C Chan & Cody Y L Hsiao, 2013. "Estimation of Stochastic Volatility Models with Heavy Tails and Serial Dependence," CAMA Working Papers 2013-74, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Joshua C. C. Chan & Gary Koop & Xuewen Yu, 2024. "Large Order-Invariant Bayesian VARs with Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 825-837, April.
    2. Deborah Gefang & Gary Koop & Aubrey Poon, 2019. "Variational Bayesian inference in large Vector Autoregressions with hierarchical shrinkage," CAMA Working Papers 2019-08, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    3. Tovonony Razafindrabe & Valérie Mignon & Marc Joëts, 2016. "Does the volatility of commodity prices reflects macroeconomic uncertainty?," Post-Print hal-01667080, HAL.
    4. Gary Koop & Stuart McIntyre & James Mitchell & Aubrey Poon, 2022. "Reconciled Estimates of Monthly GDP in the US," Working Papers 22-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    5. Liyuan Chen & Paola Zerilli & Christopher F Baum, 2018. "Leverage effects and stochastic volatility in spot oil returns: A Bayesian approach with VaR and CVaR applications," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 953, Boston College Department of Economics.
    6. Joshua C.C. Chan & Angelia L. Grant, 2015. "Pitfalls of Estimating the Marginal Likelihood Using the Modified Harmonic Mean," CAMA Working Papers 2015-08, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    7. Boriss Siliverstovs & Daniel Wochner, 2020. "Recessions as Breadwinner for Forecasters State-Dependent Evaluation of Predictive Ability: Evidence from Big Macroeconomic US Data," Working Papers 2020/02, Latvijas Banka.
    8. Nonejad Nima, 2015. "Particle Gibbs with ancestor sampling for stochastic volatility models with: heavy tails, in mean effects, leverage, serial dependence and structural breaks," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(5), pages 561-584, December.
    9. Gary Koop & Stuart McIntyre & James Mitchell & Aubrey Poon, 2018. "Regional Output Growth in the United Kingdom: More Timely and Higher Frequency Estimates, 1970-2017," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2018-14, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    10. Knut Are Aastveit & Jamie Cross & Herman K. Djik, 2021. "Quantifying time-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil," Working Papers No 03/2021, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    11. Martin Iseringhausen, 2018. "The Time-Varying Asymmetry Of Exchange Rate Returns: A Stochastic Volatility – Stochastic Skewness Model," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 18/944, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    12. Boriss Siliverstovs & Daniel S. Wochner, 2021. "State‐dependent evaluation of predictive ability," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 547-574, April.
    13. Aubrey Poon, 2018. "The transmission mechanism of Malaysian monetary policy: a time-varying vector autoregression approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 417-444, September.
    14. Galvao, Ana Beatriz & Mitchell, James, 2019. "Measuring Data Uncertainty : An Application using the Bank of England’s “Fan Charts” for Historical GDP Growth," EMF Research Papers 24, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
    15. Zhang, Bo & Nguyen, Bao H., 2020. "Real-time forecasting of the Australian macroeconomy using Bayesian VARs," Working Papers 2020-12, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    16. Barnett William A. & Jawadi Fredj & Ftiti Zied, 2020. "Causal relationships between inflation and inflation uncertainty," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(5), pages 1-26, December.
    17. Roberto Casarin & Domenico Sartore & Marco Tronzano, 2018. "A Bayesian Markov-Switching Correlation Model for Contagion Analysis on Exchange Rate Markets," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 101-114, January.
    18. Leopoldo Catania & Nima Nonejad, 2016. "Density Forecasts and the Leverage Effect: Some Evidence from Observation and Parameter-Driven Volatility Models," Papers 1605.00230, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2016.
    19. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2020. "Large Bayesian VARs: A Flexible Kronecker Error Covariance Structure," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 68-79, January.
    20. Bobeica, Elena & Hartwig, Benny, 2021. "The COVID-19 shock and challenges for time series models," Working Paper Series 2558, European Central Bank.
    21. Ciccarelli, Matteo & García, Juan Angel & Montes-Galdón, Carlos, 2017. "Unconventional monetary policy and the anchoring of inflation expectations," Working Paper Series 1995, European Central Bank.
    22. Iseringhausen, Martin, 2024. "A time-varying skewness model for Growth-at-Risk," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 229-246.
    23. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2019. "Large Bayesian vector autoregressions," CAMA Working Papers 2019-19, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    24. Kai Carstensen & Leonard Salzmann, 2016. "The G7 Business Cycle in a Globalized World," CESifo Working Paper Series 5980, CESifo.
    25. Gao, Shen & Hou, Chenghan & Nguyen, Bao H., 2020. "Forecasting natural gas prices using highly flexible time-varying parameter models," Working Papers 2020-01, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    26. Nonejad, Nima, 2014. "Particle Gibbs with Ancestor Sampling Methods for Unobserved Component Time Series Models with Heavy Tails, Serial Dependence and Structural Breaks," MPRA Paper 55664, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    27. Jean Pierre Fernández Prada Saucedo & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2020. "Modeling the Volatility of Returns on Commodities: An Application and Empirical Comparison of GARCH and SV Models," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2020-484, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    28. Bo Zhang & Jamie Cross & Na Guo, 2020. "Time-Varying Trend Models for Forecasting Inflation in Australia," Working Papers No 09/2020, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    29. Clements, Michael P. & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2017. "Model and survey estimates of the term structure of US macroeconomic uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 591-604.
    30. Dimitrios P. Louzis, 2019. "Steady‐state modeling and macroeconomic forecasting quality," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(2), pages 285-314, March.
    31. Götz, Thomas B. & Hauzenberger, Klemens, 2018. "Large mixed-frequency VARs with a parsimonious time-varying parameter structure," Discussion Papers 40/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    32. Eymen Errais & Dhikra Bahri, 2016. "Is Standard Deviation a Good Measure of Volatility? the Case of African Markets with Price Limits," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 17(1), pages 145-165, May.
    33. Jiawen Luo & Langnan Chen, 2019. "Multivariate realized volatility forecasts of agricultural commodity futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(12), pages 1565-1586, December.
    34. Jinzhi Li, 2021. "Bayesian estimation of the stochastic volatility model with double exponential jumps," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 157-172, July.

  43. Joshua C C Chan, 2012. "Moving Average Stochastic Volatility Models with Application to Inflation Forecast," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2012-591, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Renhe & Wang, Tong & Qian, Zhiyong & Hu, Shulan, 2023. "A Bayesian estimation approach of random switching exponential smoothing with application to credit forecast," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
    2. Joshua C.C. Chan & Angelia L. Grant, 2014. "Issues in Comparing Stochastic Volatility Models Using the Deviance Information Criterion," CAMA Working Papers 2014-51, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    3. Angelia L. Grant & Joshua C.C. Chan, 2017. "A Bayesian Model Comparison for Trend‐Cycle Decompositions of Output," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(2-3), pages 525-552, March.
    4. Zouhaier Dhifaoui, 2022. "Determinism and Non-linear Behaviour of Log-return and Conditional Volatility: Empirical Analysis for 26 Stock Markets," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 11(1), pages 69-94, June.
    5. Lasha Kavtaradze & Manouchehr Mokhtari, 2018. "Factor Models And Time†Varying Parameter Framework For Forecasting Exchange Rates And Inflation: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 302-334, April.
    6. Nima Nonejad, 2021. "An Overview Of Dynamic Model Averaging Techniques In Time‐Series Econometrics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 566-614, April.
    7. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Santi, Caterina, 2021. "Speculative bubbles in present-value models: A Bayesian Markov-switching state space approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    8. Joshua Chan & Arnaud Doucet & Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & Rodney W. Strachan, 2018. "Multivariate Stochastic Volatility with Co-Heteroscedasticity," GRIPS Discussion Papers 18-12, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
    9. Joshua C C Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Gary Koop, 2014. "Large Bayesian VARMAs," Working Papers 1409, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    10. Liyuan Chen & Paola Zerilli & Christopher F Baum, 2018. "Leverage effects and stochastic volatility in spot oil returns: A Bayesian approach with VaR and CVaR applications," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 953, Boston College Department of Economics.
    11. Joshua C.C. Chan & Angelia L. Grant, 2015. "Pitfalls of Estimating the Marginal Likelihood Using the Modified Harmonic Mean," CAMA Working Papers 2015-08, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    12. Dominik Bertsche & Robin Braun, 2018. "Identification of Structural Vector Autoregressions by Stochastic Volatility," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2018-03, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    13. Joshua C C Chan & Cody Y L Hsiao, 2013. "Estimation of Stochastic Volatility Models with Heavy Tails and Serial Dependence," CAMA Working Papers 2013-74, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    14. Nonejad Nima, 2015. "Particle Gibbs with ancestor sampling for stochastic volatility models with: heavy tails, in mean effects, leverage, serial dependence and structural breaks," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(5), pages 561-584, December.
    15. Hervé Le Bihan & Danilo Leiva-León & Matías Pacce, 2023. "Underlying inflation and asymetric risks," Working Papers 2319, Banco de España.
    16. Joshua C.C. Chan, 2015. "Specification tests for time-varying parameter models with stochastic volatility," CAMA Working Papers 2015-42, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    17. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian & Thomas K. Lee, 2017. "Inside the Crystal Ball: New Approaches to Predicting the Gasoline Price at the Pump," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(2), pages 275-295, March.
    18. Luis Uzeda, 2018. "State Correlation and Forecasting: A Bayesian Approach Using Unobserved Components Models," Staff Working Papers 18-14, Bank of Canada.
    19. Terence D. Agbeyegbe, 2023. "The Link Between Output Growth and Output Growth Volatility: Barbados," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 787-804, June.
    20. Daniel Kaufmann, 2019. "Nominal stability over two centuries," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 155(1), pages 1-23, December.
    21. Juan Angel García & Sebastian E. V. Werner, 2021. "Inflation News and Euro-Area Inflation Expectations," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(3), pages 1-60, September.
    22. Li, Chenxing & Maheu, John M & Yang, Qiao, 2022. "An Infinite Hidden Markov Model with Stochastic Volatility," MPRA Paper 115456, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Jiang, Yong & Zhou, Zhongbao & Liu, Qing & Lin, Ling & Xiao, Helu, 2020. "How do oil price shocks affect the output volatility of the U.S. energy mining industry? The roles of structural oil price shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    24. Eric Eisenstat & Rodney W. Strachan, 2014. "Modelling Inflation Volatility," CAMA Working Papers 2014-68, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    25. Bo Zhang, 2019. "Real‐time inflation forecast combination for time‐varying coefficient models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 175-191, April.
    26. Yuntong Liu & Yu Wei & Yi Liu & Wenjuan Li, 2020. "Forecasting Oil Price by Hierarchical Shrinkage in Dynamic Parameter Models," Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, Hindawi, vol. 2020, pages 1-12, December.
    27. Saeed Zaman, 2021. "A Unified Framework to Estimate Macroeconomic Stars," Working Papers 21-23R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 15 Aug 2022.
    28. Töppel, Jannick & Tränkler, Timm, 2019. "Modeling energy efficiency insurances and energy performance contracts for a quantitative comparison of risk mitigation potential," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 842-859.
    29. Philipp Otto & Osman Dou{g}an & Suleyman Tac{s}p{i}nar & Wolfgang Schmid & Anil K. Bera, 2023. "Spatial and Spatiotemporal Volatility Models: A Review," Papers 2308.13061, arXiv.org.
    30. Nonejad, Nima, 2015. "Flexible model comparison of unobserved components models using particle Gibbs with ancestor sampling," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 35-39.
    31. Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat, 2015. "Efficient estimation of Bayesian VARMAs with time-varying coefficients," CAMA Working Papers 2015-19, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    32. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Grant, Angelia L., 2016. "Modeling energy price dynamics: GARCH versus stochastic volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 182-189.
    33. Knüppel, Malte & Krüger, Fabian, 2019. "Forecast uncertainty, disagreement, and the linear pool," Discussion Papers 28/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    34. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2022. "Asymmetric conjugate priors for large Bayesian VARs," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(3), pages 1145-1169, July.
    35. Bo Zhang & Joshua C.C. Chan & Jamie L. Cross, 2018. "Stochastic volatility models with ARMA innovations: An application to G7 inflation forecasts," CAMA Working Papers 2018-32, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    36. Zhang, Bo & Nguyen, Bao H., 2020. "Real-time forecasting of the Australian macroeconomy using Bayesian VARs," Working Papers 2020-12, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    37. Nima Nonejad, 2013. "Long Memory and Structural Breaks in Realized Volatility: An Irreversible Markov Switching Approach," CREATES Research Papers 2013-26, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    38. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Poon, Aubrey & Zhu, Dan, 2023. "High-dimensional conditionally Gaussian state space models with missing data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).
    39. Qureshi, Irfan, 2015. "What are monetary policy shocks?," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1086, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    40. Nonejad, Nima, 2018. "Déjà vol oil? Predicting S&P 500 equity premium using crude oil price volatility: Evidence from old and recent time-series data," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 260-270.
    41. Nima Nonejad, 2020. "Does the price of crude oil help predict the conditional distribution of aggregate equity return?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 313-349, January.
    42. Barnett William A. & Jawadi Fredj & Ftiti Zied, 2020. "Causal relationships between inflation and inflation uncertainty," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(5), pages 1-26, December.
    43. Chang, Hao-Wen & Lin, Chinho, 2023. "Currency portfolio behavior in seven major Asian markets," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 540-559.
    44. Baltuttis, Dennik & Töppel, Jannick & Tränkler, Timm & Wiethe, Christian, 2020. "Managing the risks of energy efficiency insurances in a portfolio context: An actuarial diversification approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    45. Joshua C.C. Chan & Todd E. Clark & Gary Koop, 2018. "A New Model of Inflation, Trend Inflation, and Long‐Run Inflation Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(1), pages 5-53, February.
    46. Nguyen, BH & Zhang, Bo, 2022. "Forecasting oil Prices: can large BVARs help?," Working Papers 2022-04, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    47. David T. Frazier & Worapree Maneesoonthorn & Gael M. Martin & Brendan P.M. McCabe, 2018. "Approximate Bayesian forecasting," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 2/18, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    48. Leopoldo Catania & Nima Nonejad, 2016. "Density Forecasts and the Leverage Effect: Some Evidence from Observation and Parameter-Driven Volatility Models," Papers 1605.00230, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2016.
    49. Markku Lanne & Jani Luoto, 2017. "A New Time‐Varying Parameter Autoregressive Model for U.S. Inflation Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(5), pages 969-995, August.
    50. Mengheng Li & Siem Jan Koopman, 2021. "Unobserved components with stochastic volatility: Simulation‐based estimation and signal extraction," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 614-627, August.
    51. Gao, Shen & Hou, Chenghan & Nguyen, Bao H., 2021. "Forecasting natural gas prices using highly flexible time-varying parameter models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    52. Zied Ftiti & Fredj Jawadi, 2019. "Forecasting Inflation Uncertainty in the United States and Euro Area," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 54(1), pages 455-476, June.
    53. Agbeyegbe, Terence D., 2020. "Bayesian analysis of output gap in Barbados," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 1(1).
    54. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2020. "Large Bayesian VARs: A Flexible Kronecker Error Covariance Structure," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 68-79, January.
    55. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2019. "Large Bayesian vector autoregressions," CAMA Working Papers 2019-19, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    56. Korobilis, Dimitris & Landau, Bettina & Musso, Alberto & Phella, Anthoulla, 2021. "The time-varying evolution of inflation risks," Working Paper Series 2600, European Central Bank.
    57. Gong, Xiao-Li & Liu, Xi-Hua & Xiong, Xiong & Zhuang, Xin-Tian, 2019. "Non-Gaussian VARMA model with stochastic volatility and applications in stock market bubbles," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 129-136.
    58. Nonejad, Nima, 2021. "Predicting equity premium using dynamic model averaging. Does the state–space representation matter?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    59. Hsiao, Cody Yu-Ling & Chen, Hsing Hung, 2018. "The contagious effects on economic development after resuming construction policy for nuclear power plants in Coastal China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 291-302.
    60. Nonejad, Nima, 2014. "Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo Techniques of Unobserved Component Time Series Models Using Ox," MPRA Paper 55662, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    61. Dimitris Korobilis & Maximilian Schroder, 2023. "Monitoring multicountry macroeconomic risk," Papers 2305.09563, arXiv.org.
    62. Gao, Shen & Hou, Chenghan & Nguyen, Bao H., 2020. "Forecasting natural gas prices using highly flexible time-varying parameter models," Working Papers 2020-01, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    63. Nima Nonejad, 2021. "Using the conditional volatility channel to improve the accuracy of aggregate equity return predictions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 973-1009, August.
    64. Nima Nonejad, 2019. "Has the 2008 financial crisis and its aftermath changed the impact of inflation on inflation uncertainty in member states of the european monetary union?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(2), pages 246-276, May.
    65. Nonejad, Nima, 2014. "Particle Gibbs with Ancestor Sampling Methods for Unobserved Component Time Series Models with Heavy Tails, Serial Dependence and Structural Breaks," MPRA Paper 55664, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    66. Jean Pierre Fernández Prada Saucedo & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2020. "Modeling the Volatility of Returns on Commodities: An Application and Empirical Comparison of GARCH and SV Models," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2020-484, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    67. Bo Zhang & Jamie Cross & Na Guo, 2020. "Time-Varying Trend Models for Forecasting Inflation in Australia," Working Papers No 09/2020, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    68. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2017. "The Stochastic Volatility in Mean Model With Time-Varying Parameters: An Application to Inflation Modeling," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 17-28, January.
    69. Doğan, Osman & Taşpınar, Süleyman & Bera, Anil K., 2021. "A Bayesian robust chi-squared test for testing simple hypotheses," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(2), pages 933-958.
    70. Na Guo & Bo Zhang & Jamie L. Cross, 2022. "Time‐varying trend models for forecasting inflation in Australia," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(2), pages 316-330, March.
    71. Arnaud Dufays & Zhuo Li & Jeroen V.K. Rombouts & Yong Song, 2021. "Sparse change‐point VAR models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(6), pages 703-727, September.
    72. Lu Yang & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2018. "Modeling The Dynamics Of International Agricultural Commodity Prices: A Comparison Of Garch And Stochastic Volatility Models," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(03), pages 1-20, September.
    73. Qureshi, Irfan, 2015. "What are monetary policy shocks?," Economic Research Papers 270008, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    74. Nonejad, Nima, 2020. "Crude oil price volatility and equity return predictability: A comparative out-of-sample study," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    75. Ramis Khabibullin, 2019. "What measures of real economic activity slack are helpful for forecasting Russian inflation?," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps50, Bank of Russia.
    76. Jiawen Luo & Langnan Chen, 2019. "Multivariate realized volatility forecasts of agricultural commodity futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(12), pages 1565-1586, December.
    77. Michael P Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvao, 2017. "Data Revisions and Real-time Probabilistic Forecasting of Macroeconomic Variables," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2017-01, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    78. Beatrice Franzolini & Alexandros Beskos & Maria De Iorio & Warrick Poklewski Koziell & Karolina Grzeszkiewicz, 2022. "Change point detection in dynamic Gaussian graphical models: the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the US stock market," Papers 2208.00952, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
    79. Nonejad Nima, 2016. "Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo Techniques of Unobserved Component Time Series Models Using Ox," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 55-90, January.
    80. Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat, 2013. "Gibbs Samplers for VARMA and Its Extensions," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2013-604, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    81. Cross, Jamie & Poon, Aubrey, 2016. "Forecasting structural change and fat-tailed events in Australian macroeconomic variables," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 34-51.

  44. Chan, Joshua & Koop, Gary & Potter, Simon, 2012. "A New Model Of Trend Inflation," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-12, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).

    Cited by:

    1. Delle Monache, Davide & Petrella, Ivan, 2017. "Adaptive models and heavy tails with an application to inflation forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 482-501.
    2. Joshua C.C. Chan & Angelia L. Grant, 2014. "Issues in Comparing Stochastic Volatility Models Using the Deviance Information Criterion," CAMA Working Papers 2014-51, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    3. Kabundi, Alain & Mlachila, Montfort, 2019. "The role of monetary policy credibility in explaining the decline in exchange rate pass-through in South Africa," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 173-185.
    4. Marente Vlekke & Martin Mellens & Siem Jan Koopmans, 2020. "An assessment of the Phillips curve over time: evidence for the United States and the euro area," CPB Discussion Paper 416, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    5. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2014. "Measuring Price-Level Uncertainty and Instability in the U.S., 1850-2012," Working Papers 2014-33, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    6. Nima Nonejad, 2021. "An Overview Of Dynamic Model Averaging Techniques In Time‐Series Econometrics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 566-614, April.
    7. Behera, Harendra Kumar & Patra, Michael Debabrata, 2022. "Measuring trend inflation in India," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    8. Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine & Holtemöller, Oliver, 2018. "Inflation dynamics during the Financial Crisis in Europe: cross-sectional identification of long-run inflation expectations," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181520, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    9. Juan Angel Garcia & Aubrey Poon, 2018. "Trend Inflation and Inflation Compensation," IMF Working Papers 2018/154, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Cornel Oros, 2020. "Inflation, uncertainty, and labour market conditions in the US," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(52), pages 5770-5782, November.
    11. García, Juan Angel & Poon, Aubrey, 2019. "Inflation trends in Asia: implications for central banks," Working Paper Series 2338, European Central Bank.
    12. Arnoud Stevens & Joris Wauters, 2021. "Is euro area lowflation here to stay? Insights from a time‐varying parameter model with survey data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 566-586, August.
    13. Michael Pfarrhofer, 2021. "Modeling tail risks of inflation using unobserved component quantile regressions," Papers 2103.03632, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2021.
    14. Cogley, Timothy & Sargent, Thomas J. & Surico, Paolo, 2015. "Price-level uncertainty and instability in the United Kingdom," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1-16.
    15. De Schryder, Selien & Peersman, Gert & Wauters, Joris, 2020. "Wage indexation and the monetary policy regime," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    16. Jmaes McNeil, 2020. "Monetary policy and the term structure of Inflation expectations with information frictions," Working Papers daleconwp2020-07, Dalhousie University, Department of Economics.
    17. Hervé Le Bihan & Danilo Leiva-León & Matías Pacce, 2023. "Underlying inflation and asymetric risks," Working Papers 2319, Banco de España.
    18. Kamber, Güneş & Wong, Benjamin, 2020. "Global factors and trend inflation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    19. Luis Uzeda, 2018. "State Correlation and Forecasting: A Bayesian Approach Using Unobserved Components Models," Staff Working Papers 18-14, Bank of Canada.
    20. Terence D. Agbeyegbe, 2023. "The Link Between Output Growth and Output Growth Volatility: Barbados," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 787-804, June.
    21. Eric Eisenstat & Rodney W. Strachan, 2014. "Modelling Inflation Volatility," CAMA Working Papers 2014-68, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    22. Kristin Forbes & Lewis Kirkham & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2021. "A Trendy Approach to UK Inflation Dynamics," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 89(S1), pages 23-75, September.
    23. Nonejad, Nima, 2021. "Predicting the return on the spot price of crude oil out-of-sample by conditioning on news-based uncertainty measures: Some new empirical results," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    24. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Christian Aubin & Daniel Goyeau, 2016. "Stock prices, inflation and inflation uncertainty in the U.S.: Testing the long-run relationship considering Dow Jones sector indexes," Working Papers hal-01282481, HAL.
    25. Saeed Zaman, 2021. "A Unified Framework to Estimate Macroeconomic Stars," Working Papers 21-23R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 15 Aug 2022.
    26. Yunjong Eo & Luis Uzeda & Benjamin Wong, 2022. "Understanding trend inflation through the lens of the goods and services sectors," CAMA Working Papers 2022-28, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    27. Franz Xaver Zobl & Martin Ertl, 2021. "The Condemned Live Longer – New Evidence of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Central and Eastern Europe," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 671-699, September.
    28. Hauber, Philipp & Schumacher, Christian, 2021. "Precision-based sampling with missing observations: A factor model application," Discussion Papers 11/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    29. Matteo Iacopini & Aubrey Poon & Luca Rossini & Dan Zhu, 2022. "Bayesian Mixed-Frequency Quantile Vector Autoregression: Eliciting tail risks of Monthly US GDP," Papers 2209.01910, arXiv.org.
    30. Kajuth Florian, 2016. "NAIRU Estimates for Germany: New Evidence on the Inflation–Unemployment Tradeoff," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 104-125, February.
    31. Stephen Wright & James Mitchell & Donald Robertson, 2018. "R2 bounds for predictive models: what univariate properties tell us about multivariate predictability," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1804, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    32. Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Worapree Maneesoonthorn & Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & John Maheu & Didier Nibbering & Anastasios Panagiotelis, 2022. "Bayesian Forecasting in Economics and Finance: A Modern Review," Papers 2212.03471, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    33. Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & John Maheu & Didier Nibbering & Anastasios Panagiotelis, 2023. "Bayesian Forecasting in the 21st Century: A Modern Review," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 1/23, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    34. Bo Zhang & Joshua C.C. Chan & Jamie L. Cross, 2018. "Stochastic volatility models with ARMA innovations: An application to G7 inflation forecasts," CAMA Working Papers 2018-32, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    35. Niko Hauzenberger & Daniel Kaufmann & Rebecca Stuart & Cédric Tille, 2022. "What Drives Long-Term Interest Rates? Evidence from the Entire Swiss Franc History 1852-2020," IRENE Working Papers 22-03, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
    36. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Poon, Aubrey & Zhu, Dan, 2023. "High-dimensional conditionally Gaussian state space models with missing data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).
    37. Markku Lanne & Jani Luoto & Henri Nyberg, 2014. "Is the Quantity Theory of Money Useful in Forecasting U.S. Inflation?," CREATES Research Papers 2014-26, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    38. Joshua C C Chan, 2012. "Moving Average Stochastic Volatility Models with Application to Inflation Forecast," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2012-591, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    39. Roberto Duncan & Enrique Martínez‐García, 2023. "Forecasting inflation in open economies: What can a NOEM model do?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 481-513, April.
    40. Joshua C.C. Chan & Todd E. Clark & Gary Koop, 2018. "A New Model of Inflation, Trend Inflation, and Long‐Run Inflation Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(1), pages 5-53, February.
    41. Nima Nonejad, 2021. "Bayesian model averaging and the conditional volatility process: an application to predicting aggregate equity returns by conditioning on economic variables," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(8), pages 1387-1411, August.
    42. Chew Lian Chua & Sarantis Tsiaplias, 2014. "A Bayesian Approach to Modelling Bivariate Time-Varying Cointegration and Cointegrating Rank," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2014n27, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    43. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Stephen M. Miller & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "Time-Frequency Relationship between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty for the U.S.: Evidence from Historical Data," Working papers 2016-12, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    44. Markku Lanne & Jani Luoto, 2017. "A New Time‐Varying Parameter Autoregressive Model for U.S. Inflation Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(5), pages 969-995, August.
    45. Andreza A Palma, 2016. "Natural interest rate in Brazil: further evidence frThe main objective of this study is to estimate the natural interest rate for Brazil using a parsimonious AR-trend-bound model proposed by Chan, Koo," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(3), pages 1306-1314.
    46. Mountford, Andrew, 2022. "Economic Growth Analysis When Balanced Growth Paths May Be Time Varying," MPRA Paper 114249, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    47. Petrella, Ivan & Venditti, Fabrizio & Delle Monache, Davide, 2016. "Adaptive state space models with applications to the business cycle and financial stress," CEPR Discussion Papers 11599, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    48. Davide Delle Monache & Ivan Petrella, 2014. "Adaptive Models and Heavy Tails," Working Papers 720, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    49. Benjamin Wong, 2015. "Do inflation expectations propagate the inflationary impact of real oil price shocks?: Evidence from the Michigan survey," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2015/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    50. Markku Lanne & Jani Luoto, 2016. "Noncausal Bayesian Vector Autoregression," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1392-1406, November.
    51. Mónica Correa-López & Matías Pacce & Kathi Schlepper, 2019. "Exploring trend inFLation dynamics in Euro Area countries," Working Papers 1909, Banco de España.
    52. Nonejad, Nima, 2021. "Predicting equity premium using dynamic model averaging. Does the state–space representation matter?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    53. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Stephen M. Miller & Rangan Gupta, 2019. "Time–frequency relationship between US inflation and inflation uncertainty: evidence from historical data," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(5), pages 673-702, November.
    54. Sbrana, Giacomo & Silvestrini, Andrea & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2017. "Short-term inflation forecasting: The M.E.T.A. approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 1065-1081.
    55. Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd E. & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Mertens, Elmar, 2023. "Shadow-rate VARs," Discussion Papers 14/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    56. Alex, Dony, 2021. "Anchoring of inflation expectations in large emerging economies," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    57. Ricardo Gimeno & Alfredo Ibáñez, 2017. "The eurozone (expected) inflation: an option’s eyes view," Working Papers 1722, Banco de España.
    58. Jeremy J. Nalewaik, 2015. "Regime-Switching Models for Estimating Inflation Uncertainty," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-93, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    59. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2017. "The Stochastic Volatility in Mean Model With Time-Varying Parameters: An Application to Inflation Modeling," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 17-28, January.
    60. Günes Kamber & Benjamin Wong, 2016. "Testing an Interpretation of Core Inflation Measures in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2016/06, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    61. Joshua C.C. Chan & Rodney W. Strachan, 2023. "Bayesian State Space Models In Macroeconometrics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 58-75, February.
    62. Gong, Xiao-Li & Liu, Xi-Hua & Xiong, Xiong & Zhuang, Xin-Tian, 2018. "Modeling volatility dynamics using non-Gaussian stochastic volatility model based on band matrix routine," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 193-201.
    63. Joshua C.C. Chan & Angelia L. Grant, 2014. "Fast Computation of the Deviance Information Criterion for Latent Variable Models," CAMA Working Papers 2014-09, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    64. Clark, Todd E. & Doh, Taeyoung, 2014. "Evaluating alternative models of trend inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 426-448.
    65. Hau, Liya & Zhu, Huiming & Huang, Rui & Ma, Xiang, 2020. "Heterogeneous dependence between crude oil price volatility and China’s agriculture commodity futures: Evidence from quantile-on-quantile regression," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).

  45. Tim J. Brereton & Dirk P. Kroese & Joshua C. Chan, 2012. "Monte Carlo Methods for Portfolio Credit Risk," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2012-579, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Ma, Yuan-Zhuo & Zhu, Yi-Chen & Li, Hong-Shuang & Nan, Hang & Zhao, Zhen-Zhou & Jin, Xiang-Xiang, 2022. "Adaptive Kriging-based failure probability estimation for multiple responses," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    2. Hatem Çoban & İpek Deveci Kocakoç & Şemsettin Erken & Mehmet Akif Aksoy, 2019. "Reducing Variation of Risk Estimation by Using Importance Sampling," Alphanumeric Journal, Bahadir Fatih Yildirim, vol. 7(2), pages 173-184, December.
    3. Tang, Qihe & Tang, Zhaofeng & Yang, Yang, 2019. "Sharp asymptotics for large portfolio losses under extreme risks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 276(2), pages 710-722.

  46. Joshua Chan & Rodney Strachan, 2012. "Estimation in Non-Linear Non-Gaussian State Space Models with Precision-Based Methods," CAMA Working Papers 2012-13, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Joshua C. C. Chan & Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2016. "A Bounded Model of Time Variation in Trend Inflation, Nairu and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 551-565, April.
    2. Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine & Holtemöller, Oliver, 2018. "Inflation dynamics during the Financial Crisis in Europe: cross-sectional identification of long-run inflation expectations," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181520, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Chan, Joshua & Koop, Gary & Potter, Simon, 2012. "A new model of trend inflation," MPRA Paper 39496, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. István Barra & Lennart Hoogerheide & Siem Jan Koopman & André Lucas, 2017. "Joint Bayesian Analysis of Parameters and States in Nonlinear non‐Gaussian State Space Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 1003-1026, August.
    5. Eric Eisenstat & Rodney W. Strachan, 2014. "Modelling Inflation Volatility," CAMA Working Papers 2014-68, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    6. Phillip, Andrew & Chan, Jennifer & Peiris, Shelton, 2020. "On generalized bivariate student-t Gegenbauer long memory stochastic volatility models with leverage: Bayesian forecasting of cryptocurrencies with a focus on Bitcoin," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 69-90.
    7. Eric Eisenstat & Joshua C.C. Chan & Rodney Strachan, 2014. "Stochastic Model Specification Search for Time-Varying Parameter VARs," Working Paper series 44_14, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    8. Andreza A Palma, 2016. "Natural interest rate in Brazil: further evidence frThe main objective of this study is to estimate the natural interest rate for Brazil using a parsimonious AR-trend-bound model proposed by Chan, Koo," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(3), pages 1306-1314.
    9. Abhishek K. Umrawal & Joshua C. C. Chan, 2021. "On Parameter Estimation in Unobserved Components Models subject to Linear Inequality Constraints," Papers 2110.12149, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2023.
    10. Eric Eisenstat & Joshua C.C. Chan & Rodney W. Strachan, 2018. "Reducing Dimensions in a Large TVP-VAR," Working Paper Series 43, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    11. Joshua C.C. Chan & Rodney W. Strachan, 2023. "Bayesian State Space Models In Macroeconometrics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 58-75, February.

  47. Joshua C C Chan & Eric Eisenstat, 2012. "Marginal Likelihood Estimation with the Cross-Entropy Method," CAMA Working Papers 2012-18, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Joshua C.C. Chan & Angelia L. Grant, 2016. "Reconciling output gaps: unobserved components model and Hodrick-Prescott filter," CAMA Working Papers 2016-44, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Fernandes, Mário Correia & Dutra, Tiago Mota & Dias, José Carlos & Teixeira, João C.A., 2023. "Modelling output gaps in the Euro Area with structural breaks: The COVID-19 recession," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1046-1058.
    3. Gholamreza Hajargasht & D.S. Prasada Rao, 2019. "Multilateral Index Number Systems for International Price Comparisons: Properties, Existence and Uniqueness," CEPA Working Papers Series WP032019, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    4. Karlsson, Sune & Österholm, Pär, 2018. "Is the US Phillips Curve Stable? Evidence from Bayesian VARs," Working Papers 2018:5, Örebro University, School of Business.
    5. Angelia L. Grant & Joshua C.C. Chan, 2017. "A Bayesian Model Comparison for Trend‐Cycle Decompositions of Output," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(2-3), pages 525-552, March.
    6. Diegel, Max, 2022. "Time-varying credibility, anchoring and the Fed's inflation target," Discussion Papers 2022/9, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    7. Liangliang Zhou & Yishao Shi & Xiangyang Cao, 2019. "Evaluation of Land Intensive Use in Shanghai Pilot Free Trade Zone," Land, MDPI, vol. 8(6), pages 1-16, May.
    8. Dante A. Urbina & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2023. "Evolution of the effects of mineral commodity prices on fiscal fluctuations: empirical evidence from TVP-VAR-SV models for Peru," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 159(1), pages 153-184, February.
    9. Gabriel Rodríguez & Paulo Chávez, 2022. "Time Changing Effects of External Shocks on Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Peru: Empirical Application Using Regime-Switching VAR Models with Stochastic Volatility," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2022-509, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    10. Joshua C.C. Chan, 2015. "Specification tests for time-varying parameter models with stochastic volatility," CAMA Working Papers 2015-42, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    11. Joshua C. C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat, 2018. "Bayesian model comparison for time‐varying parameter VARs with stochastic volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(4), pages 509-532, June.
    12. Jiang, Yong & Zhou, Zhongbao & Liu, Qing & Lin, Ling & Xiao, Helu, 2020. "How do oil price shocks affect the output volatility of the U.S. energy mining industry? The roles of structural oil price shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    13. Anders Warne & Günter Coenen & Kai Christoffel, 2017. "Marginalized Predictive Likelihood Comparisons of Linear Gaussian State‐Space Models with Applications to DSGE, DSGE‐VAR, and VAR Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 103-119, January.
    14. Aknouche, Abdelhakim & Dimitrakopoulos, Stefanos, 2020. "On an integer-valued stochastic intensity model for time series of counts," MPRA Paper 105406, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Töppel, Jannick & Tränkler, Timm, 2019. "Modeling energy efficiency insurances and energy performance contracts for a quantitative comparison of risk mitigation potential," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 842-859.
    16. Jiménez, Alvaro & Rodríguez, Gabriel & Ataurima Arellano, Miguel, 2023. "Time-varying impact of fiscal shocks over GDP growth in Peru: An empirical application using hybrid TVP-VAR-SV models," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 314-332.
    17. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Grant, Angelia L., 2016. "Modeling energy price dynamics: GARCH versus stochastic volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 182-189.
    18. Joshua C. C. Chan & Liana Jacobi & Dan Zhu, 2019. "An automated prior robustness analysis in Bayesian model comparison," CAMA Working Papers 2019-45, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    19. Jiang, Yong & Ren, Yi-Shuai & Ma, Chao-Qun & Liu, Jiang-Long & Sharp, Basil, 2020. "Does the price of strategic commodities respond to U.S. partisan conflict?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    20. Angelia L. Grant, 2017. "The Early Millennium Slowdown: Replicating the Peersman (2005) Results," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 224-232, January.
    21. Rangan Gupta & Hardik A. Marfatia & Christian Pierdzioch & Afees A. Salisu, 2022. "Machine Learning Predictions of Housing Market Synchronization across US States: The Role of Uncertainty," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 64(4), pages 523-545, May.
    22. Baltuttis, Dennik & Töppel, Jannick & Tränkler, Timm & Wiethe, Christian, 2020. "Managing the risks of energy efficiency insurances in a portfolio context: An actuarial diversification approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    23. Bowen Fu, 2019. "Bubbles and crises: Replicating the Anundsen et al. (2016) results," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(5), pages 822-826, August.
    24. Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang & Pierdzioch, Christian & Plakandaras, Vasilios, 2023. "Forecasting the conditional distribution of realized volatility of oil price returns: The role of skewness over 1859 to 2023," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
    25. Roberto Calero & Gabriel Rodríguez & Rodrigo Salcedo Cisneros, 2022. "Evolution of the Exchange Rate Pass-Throught into Prices in Peru: An Empirical Application Using TVP-VAR-SV Models," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2022-510, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    26. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Eisenstat, Eric, 2018. "Comparing hybrid time-varying parameter VARs," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 1-5.
    27. Dima, Bogdan & Dima, Ştefana Maria, 2017. "Mutual information and persistence in the stochastic volatility of market returns: An emergent market example," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 36-59.
    28. Mário Correia Fernandes & José Carlos Dias & João Pedro Vidal Nunes, 2024. "Performance comparison of alternative stochastic volatility models and its determinants in energy futures: COVID‐19 and Russia–Ukraine conflict features," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(3), pages 343-383, March.
    29. Cross, Jamie & Nguyen, Bao H., 2017. "The relationship between global oil price shocks and China's output: A time-varying analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 79-91.
    30. Flavio Pérez Rojo & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2023. "Jane Haldimand Marcet: Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks in the Peruvian Economy Over Time," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2023-523, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    31. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2022. "Comparing Stochastic Volatility Specifications for Large Bayesian VARs," Papers 2208.13255, arXiv.org.
    32. Junior A. Ojeda Cunya & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2022. "Time-Varying Effects of External Shocks on Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Peru: An Empirical Application using TVP-VAR- SV Models," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2022-507, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    33. Tomáš Jeřábek & Radka Šperková, 2015. "A Predictive Likelihood Approach to Bayesian Averaging," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 63(4), pages 1269-1276.
    34. Afees A. Salisu & Ahamuefula Ephraim Ogbonna, 2018. "Does time-variation matter in the stochastic volatility components for G7 stock returns," Working Papers 062, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
    35. Sahar Abbas & Fahimeh Moosavi, 2012. "Finding shortest path in static networks: using a modified algorithm," International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies, Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 1(1), pages 29-34, January.
    36. Melolinna, Marko & Tóth, Máté, 2019. "Trend and cycle shocks in Bayesian unobserved components models for UK productivity," Bank of England working papers 826, Bank of England.
    37. Jean Pierre Fernández Prada Saucedo & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2020. "Modeling the Volatility of Returns on Commodities: An Application and Empirical Comparison of GARCH and SV Models," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2020-484, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    38. Joshua Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Xuewen Yu, 2022. "Large Bayesian VARs with Factor Stochastic Volatility: Identification, Order Invariance and Structural Analysis," Papers 2207.03988, arXiv.org.
    39. Yong Jiang & Yi-Shuai Ren & Chao-Qun Ma & Jiang-Long Liu & Basil Sharp, 2018. "Does the price of strategic commodities respond to U.S. Partisan Conflict?," Papers 1810.08396, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2020.
    40. Rodríguez, Gabriel & Vassallo, Renato & Castillo B., Paul, 2023. "Effects of external shocks on macroeconomic fluctuations in Pacific Alliance countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    41. Lu Yang & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2018. "Modeling The Dynamics Of International Agricultural Commodity Prices: A Comparison Of Garch And Stochastic Volatility Models," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(03), pages 1-20, September.
    42. Joshua C.C. Chan & Angelia L. Grant, 2014. "Fast Computation of the Deviance Information Criterion for Latent Variable Models," CAMA Working Papers 2014-09, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    43. Alexander Meléndez Holguín & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2023. "Evolution over time of the effects of fiscal shocks in the peruvian economy: empirical application using TVP-VAR-SV models," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2023-516, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    44. Warne, Anders & Coenen, Günter & Christoffel, Kai, 2013. "Predictive likelihood comparisons with DSGE and DSGE-VAR models," Working Paper Series 1536, European Central Bank.

  48. Joshua C.C. Chan & Justin L. Tobias, 2012. "Priors and Posterior Computation in Linear Endogenous Variable Models with Imperfect Instruments," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2012-580, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Jiti Gao & Bin Peng & Zhao Ren & Xiaohui Zhang, 2015. "Variable Selection for a Categorical Varying-Coefficient Model with Identifications for Determinants of Body Mass Index," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 21/15, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    2. Xiaoyi Han & Lung-Fei Lee, 2016. "Bayesian Analysis of Spatial Panel Autoregressive Models With Time-Varying Endogenous Spatial Weight Matrices, Common Factors, and Random Coefficients," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 642-660, October.

  49. Joshua C C Chan & Gary Koop & Simon M Potter, 2012. "A Bounded Model of Time Variation in Trend Inflation, NAIRU and the Phillips Curve," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2012-590, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Kabundi, Alain & Poon, Aubrey & Wu, Ping, 2023. "A time-varying Phillips curve with global factors: Are global factors important?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    2. Karlsson, Sune & Österholm, Pär, 2018. "Is the US Phillips Curve Stable? Evidence from Bayesian VARs," Working Papers 2018:5, Örebro University, School of Business.
    3. Tino Berger & Gerdie Everaert & Hauke Vierke, 2015. "Testing for time variation in an unobserved components model for the U.S. economy," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 15/903, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    4. N. Cordemans & J. Wauters, 2018. "Are inflation and economic activity out of sync in the euro area?," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 79-96, June.
    5. Florian Huber & Daniel Kaufmann, 2015. "Trend Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Dynamics," KOF Working papers 15-393, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    6. Mallick, Debdulal, 2014. "A Spectral Representation of the Phillips Curve in Australia," MPRA Paper 59794, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine & Holtemöller, Oliver, 2018. "Inflation dynamics during the Financial Crisis in Europe: cross-sectional identification of long-run inflation expectations," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181520, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    8. Arnoud Stevens & Joris Wauters, 2021. "Is euro area lowflation here to stay? Insights from a time‐varying parameter model with survey data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 566-586, August.
    9. Michal Andrle & Miroslav Plašil, 2016. "System Priors for Econometric Time Series," IMF Working Papers 2016/231, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Mikael Frenette & Karin Klieber, 2023. "From Reactive to Proactive Volatility Modeling with Hemisphere Neural Networks," Papers 2311.16333, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2024.
    11. Hervé Le Bihan & Danilo Leiva-León & Matías Pacce, 2023. "Underlying inflation and asymetric risks," Working Papers 2319, Banco de España.
    12. Kamber, Güneş & Wong, Benjamin, 2020. "Global factors and trend inflation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    13. Joshua C.C. Chan, 2015. "Specification tests for time-varying parameter models with stochastic volatility," CAMA Working Papers 2015-42, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    14. Saeed Zaman, 2021. "A Unified Framework to Estimate Macroeconomic Stars," Working Papers 21-23R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 15 Aug 2022.
    15. Yunjong Eo & Luis Uzeda & Benjamin Wong, 2022. "Understanding trend inflation through the lens of the goods and services sectors," CAMA Working Papers 2022-28, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    16. Jinho Choi & Juan Carlos Escanciano & Junjie Guo, 2022. "Generalized band spectrum estimation with an application to the New Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 1055-1078, August.
    17. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Karin Klieber & Christophe Barrette & Maximilian Goebel, 2024. "Maximally Forward-Looking Core Inflation," Papers 2404.05209, arXiv.org.
    18. Hauber, Philipp & Schumacher, Christian, 2021. "Precision-based sampling with missing observations: A factor model application," Discussion Papers 11/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    19. Knüppel, Malte & Krüger, Fabian, 2019. "Forecast uncertainty, disagreement, and the linear pool," Discussion Papers 28/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    20. Raïsa Basselier & David de Antonio Liedo & Jana Jonckheere & Geert Langenus, 2018. "Can inflation expectations in business or consumer surveys improve inflation forecasts?," Working Paper Research 348, National Bank of Belgium.
    21. Marek Jarociński & Michele Lenza, 2018. "An Inflation‐Predicting Measure of the Output Gap in the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(6), pages 1189-1224, September.
    22. Jaromir Baxa & Miroslav Plasil & Borek Vasicek, 2013. "Inflation and the Steeplechase Between Economic Activity Variables," Working Papers 2013/15, Czech National Bank.
    23. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Mikael Frenette & Karin Klieber, 2023. "From Reactive to Proactive Volatility Modeling with Hemisphere Neural Networks," Working Papers 23-04, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management, revised Nov 2023.
    24. Fu, Bowen, 2020. "Is the slope of the Phillips curve time-varying? Evidence from unobserved components models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 320-340.
    25. Roberto Duncan & Enrique Martínez‐García, 2023. "Forecasting inflation in open economies: What can a NOEM model do?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 481-513, April.
    26. Joshua C.C. Chan & Todd E. Clark & Gary Koop, 2018. "A New Model of Inflation, Trend Inflation, and Long‐Run Inflation Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(1), pages 5-53, February.
    27. Michael O’Grady, 2019. "Estimating the Output, Inflation and Unemployment Gaps in Ireland using Bayesian Model Averaging," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 50(1), pages 35-76.
    28. Stephen McKnight & Alexander Mihailov & Fabio Rumler, 2018. "NKPC-Based Inflation Forecasts with a Time-Varying Trend," Serie documentos de trabajo del Centro de Estudios Económicos 2018-05, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos.
    29. Grant, Angelia L., 2018. "The Great Recession and Okun's law," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 291-300.
    30. Mallick, Debdulal, 2019. "Policy regimes and the shape of the Phillips curve in Australia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1077-1094.
    31. Kim, Insu & Yie, Myung-Soo, 2016. "Trend inflation, firms' backward-looking behavior, and inflation gap persistence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 116-125.
    32. Abhishek K. Umrawal & Joshua C. C. Chan, 2021. "On Parameter Estimation in Unobserved Components Models subject to Linear Inequality Constraints," Papers 2110.12149, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2023.
    33. Consolo, Agostino & Da Silva, António Dias, 2019. "The euro area labour market through the lens of the Beveridge curve," Economic Bulletin Articles, European Central Bank, vol. 4.
    34. Sune Karlsson & Pär Österholm, 2020. "A note on the stability of the Swedish Phillips curve," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2573-2612, December.
    35. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena, 2023. "Does the Phillips curve help to forecast euro area inflation?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 364-390.
    36. Karlsson, Sune & Österholm, Pär, 2019. "Volatilities, drifts and the relation between treasury yields and the corporate bond yield spread in australia," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 378-384.
    37. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2022. "A Neural Phillips Curve and a Deep Output Gap," Working Papers 22-01, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.
    38. Jaeho Kim & Sora Chon, 2022. "Bayesian estimation of the long-run trend of the US economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 461-485, February.
    39. Joshua C.C. Chan & Rodney W. Strachan, 2023. "Bayesian State Space Models In Macroeconometrics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 58-75, February.
    40. Bowen Fu, Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz, 2023. "Structural shocks and trend inflation," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2023_04, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    41. Andrle, Michal & Plašil, Miroslav, 2018. "Econometrics with system priors," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 134-137.
    42. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2022. "A Neural Phillips Curve and a Deep Output Gap," Papers 2202.04146, arXiv.org.
    43. Chu Shiou-Yen & Shane Christopher, 2017. "Using the hybrid Phillips curve with memory to forecast US inflation," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(4), pages 1-16, September.

  50. Joshua C.C. Chan & Garry Koop & Roberto Leon Gonzales & Rodney W. Strachan, 2010. "Time Varying Dimension Models," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2010-523, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Prüser, Jan, 2017. "Forecasting US inflation using Markov dimension switching," Ruhr Economic Papers 710, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    2. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2018. "Variational Bayes inference in high-dimensional time-varying parameter models," MPRA Paper 87972, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2012. "Large Time-Varying Parameter VARs," Working Paper series 11_12, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    4. Tino Berger & Gerdie Everaert & Hauke Vierke, 2015. "Testing for time variation in an unobserved components model for the U.S. economy," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 15/903, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    5. Dimitris Korobilis & Kenichi Shimizu, 2021. "Bayesian Approaches to Shrinkage and Sparse Estimation," Working Papers 2021_19, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    6. Lasha Kavtaradze & Manouchehr Mokhtari, 2018. "Factor Models And Time†Varying Parameter Framework For Forecasting Exchange Rates And Inflation: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 302-334, April.
    7. Joscha Beckmann & Rainer Schüssler, 2014. "Forecasting Exchange Rates under Model and Parameter Uncertainty," CQE Working Papers 3214, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    8. Niko Hauzenberger, 2020. "Flexible Mixture Priors for Large Time-varying Parameter Models," Papers 2006.10088, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2020.
    9. Nima Nonejad, 2021. "An Overview Of Dynamic Model Averaging Techniques In Time‐Series Econometrics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 566-614, April.
    10. Ripamonti, Alexandre, 2013. "Rational Valuation Formula (RVF) and Time Variability in Asset Rates of Return," MPRA Paper 79460, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2023. "Bayesian Dynamic Variable Selection In High Dimensions," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(3), pages 1047-1074, August.
    12. Dimitris Korobilis, 2020. "High-dimensional macroeconomic forecasting using message passing algorithms," Papers 2004.11485, arXiv.org.
    13. Joshua C C Chan & Cody Y L Hsiao, 2013. "Estimation of Stochastic Volatility Models with Heavy Tails and Serial Dependence," CAMA Working Papers 2013-74, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    14. Miguel, Belmonte & Gary, Koop, 2013. "Model Switching and Model Averaging in Time- Varying Parameter Regression Models," SIRE Discussion Papers 2013-34, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    15. Pierre Guérin & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2015. "Model Averaging in Markov-Switching Models: Predicting National Recessions with Regional Data," Staff Working Papers 15-24, Bank of Canada.
    16. Hauzenberger, Niko, 2021. "Flexible Mixture Priors for Large Time-varying Parameter Models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 87-108.
    17. Joshua C.C. Chan, 2015. "Specification tests for time-varying parameter models with stochastic volatility," CAMA Working Papers 2015-42, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    18. Jouchi Nakajima & Mike West, 2013. "Bayesian Analysis of Latent Threshold Dynamic Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 151-164, April.
    19. Joshua C. C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat, 2018. "Bayesian model comparison for time‐varying parameter VARs with stochastic volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(4), pages 509-532, June.
    20. Kenichiro McAlinn & Knut Are Aastveit & Jouchi Nakajima & Mike West, 2019. "Multivariate Bayesian Predictive Synthesis in Macroeconomic Forecasting," Working Paper 2019/2, Norges Bank.
    21. Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat, 2015. "Efficient estimation of Bayesian VARMAs with time-varying coefficients," CAMA Working Papers 2015-19, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    22. Joshua C C Chan, 2012. "Moving Average Stochastic Volatility Models with Application to Inflation Forecast," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2012-591, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    23. Jordi Maas, 2014. "Forecasting inflation using time-varying Bayesian model averaging," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 68(3), pages 149-182, August.
    24. Jan Prüser, 2021. "Forecasting US inflation using Markov dimension switching," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 481-499, April.
    25. Felix Abramovich & Vadim Grinshtein, 2013. "Estimation of a sparse group of sparse vectors," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 100(2), pages 355-370.
    26. Gabriel Rodríguez & Renato Vassallo, 2022. "Time Evolution of External Shocks on Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Pacific Alliance Countries: Empirical Application using TVP-VAR-SV Models," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2022-508, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    27. Yousuf, Kashif & Ng, Serena, 2021. "Boosting high dimensional predictive regressions with time varying parameters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 224(1), pages 60-87.
    28. Eric Eisenstat & Joshua C.C. Chan & Rodney Strachan, 2014. "Stochastic Model Specification Search for Time-Varying Parameter VARs," Working Paper series 44_14, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    29. Fu, Bowen, 2020. "Is the slope of the Phillips curve time-varying? Evidence from unobserved components models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 320-340.
    30. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Eisenstat, Eric, 2018. "Comparing hybrid time-varying parameter VARs," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 1-5.
    31. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Eisenstat, Eric & Strachan, Rodney W., 2020. "Reducing the state space dimension in a large TVP-VAR," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 218(1), pages 105-118.
    32. Dufays, Arnaud & Rombouts, Jeroen V.K., 2020. "Relevant parameter changes in structural break models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 217(1), pages 46-78.
    33. Korobilis, D, 2017. "Forecasting with many predictors using message passing algorithms," Essex Finance Centre Working Papers 19565, University of Essex, Essex Business School.
    34. Hang Qian, 2014. "A Flexible State Space Model And Its Applications," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 79-88, March.
    35. Qian, Hang, 2012. "A Flexible State Space Model and its Applications," MPRA Paper 38455, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    36. KOROBILIS, Dimitris, 2011. "VAR forecasting using Bayesian variable selection," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2011022, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    37. Beckmann, Joscha & Schüssler, Rainer, 2016. "Forecasting exchange rates under parameter and model uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 267-288.
    38. Schlösser, Alexander, 2020. "Forecasting industrial production in Germany: The predictive power of leading indicators," Ruhr Economic Papers 838, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    39. Prüser, Jan, 2023. "Data-based priors for vector error correction models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 209-227.
    40. Florian Huber & Gary Koop & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2020. "Bayesian Inference in High-Dimensional Time-varying Parameter Models using Integrated Rotated Gaussian Approximations," Papers 2002.10274, arXiv.org.
    41. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2017. "The Stochastic Volatility in Mean Model With Time-Varying Parameters: An Application to Inflation Modeling," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 17-28, January.
    42. Kalli, Maria & Griffin, Jim E., 2014. "Time-varying sparsity in dynamic regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(2), pages 779-793.
    43. Joshua C.C. Chan & Rodney W. Strachan, 2023. "Bayesian State Space Models In Macroeconometrics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 58-75, February.
    44. Nonejad, Nima, 2023. "Modeling the out-of-sample predictive relationship between equity premium, returns on the price of crude oil and economic policy uncertainty using multivariate time-varying dimension models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    45. Luke Hartigan, 2015. "Changes in the Factor Structure of the U.S. Economy: Permanent Breaks or Business Cycle Regimes?," Discussion Papers 2015-17, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    46. Kimura Takeshi & Nakajima Jouchi, 2016. "Identifying conventional and unconventional monetary policy shocks: a latent threshold approach," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 277-300, January.
    47. Rodríguez, Gabriel & Vassallo, Renato & Castillo B., Paul, 2023. "Effects of external shocks on macroeconomic fluctuations in Pacific Alliance countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    48. Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat, 2013. "Gibbs Samplers for VARMA and Its Extensions," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2013-604, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    49. Cross, Jamie & Poon, Aubrey, 2016. "Forecasting structural change and fat-tailed events in Australian macroeconomic variables," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 34-51.

Articles

  1. Joshua C. C. Chan & Gary Koop & Xuewen Yu, 2024. "Large Order-Invariant Bayesian VARs with Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 825-837, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  2. Chan, Joshua C.C., 2023. "Comparing stochastic volatility specifications for large Bayesian VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 1419-1446.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  3. Joshua C.C. Chan & Rodney W. Strachan, 2023. "Bayesian State Space Models In Macroeconometrics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 58-75, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  4. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2023. "Large Hybrid Time-Varying Parameter VARs," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 890-905, July.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  5. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Poon, Aubrey & Zhu, Dan, 2023. "High-dimensional conditionally Gaussian state space models with missing data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).
    See citations under working paper version above.
  6. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Yu, Xuewen, 2022. "Fast and Accurate Variational Inference for Large Bayesian VARs with Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    See citations under working paper version above.
  7. Joshua C. C. Chan & Liana Jacobi & Dan Zhu, 2022. "An automated prior robustness analysis in Bayesian model comparison," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(3), pages 583-602, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  8. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2022. "Asymmetric conjugate priors for large Bayesian VARs," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(3), pages 1145-1169, July.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  9. Chan, Joshua C.C., 2021. "Minnesota-type adaptive hierarchical priors for large Bayesian VARs," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1212-1226.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  10. Benati, Luca & Chan, Joshua & Eisenstat, Eric & Koop, Gary, 2020. "Identifying noise shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    See citations under working paper version above.
  11. Joshua C. C. Chan & Liana Jacobi & Dan Zhu, 2020. "Efficient selection of hyperparameters in large Bayesian VARs using automatic differentiation," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 934-943, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  12. Joshua C. C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Chenghan Hou & Gary Koop, 2020. "Composite likelihood methods for large Bayesian VARs with stochastic volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 692-711, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  13. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2020. "Large Bayesian VARs: A Flexible Kronecker Error Covariance Structure," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 68-79, January.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  14. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Eisenstat, Eric & Strachan, Rodney W., 2020. "Reducing the state space dimension in a large TVP-VAR," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 218(1), pages 105-118.

    Cited by:

    1. Joshua C. C. Chan & Xuewen Yu, 2022. "Fast and Accurate Variational Inference for Large Bayesian VARs with Stochastic Volatility," Papers 2206.08438, arXiv.org.
    2. Hai-Chuan Xu & Fredj Jawadi & Jie Zhou & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2023. "Quantifying interconnectedness and centrality ranking among financial institutions with TVP-VAR framework," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 93-110, July.
    3. Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & James Mitchell, 2023. "Bayesian Modeling of Time-Varying Parameters Using Regression Trees," Working Papers 23-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    4. Svetunkov, Ivan & Chen, Huijing & Boylan, John E., 2023. "A new taxonomy for vector exponential smoothing and its application to seasonal time series," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(3), pages 964-980.
    5. Giacomo Rella, 2021. "The Fed, housing and household debt over time," Department of Economics University of Siena 850, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    6. Niko Hauzenberger, 2020. "Flexible Mixture Priors for Large Time-varying Parameter Models," Papers 2006.10088, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2020.
    7. Nima Nonejad, 2021. "An Overview Of Dynamic Model Averaging Techniques In Time‐Series Econometrics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 566-614, April.
    8. Hauzenberger, Niko & Pfarrhofer, Michael & Stelzer, Anna, 2021. "On the effectiveness of the European Central Bank’s conventional and unconventional policies under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 822-845.
    9. Vasilii Erokhin & Tianming Gao, 2020. "Impacts of COVID-19 on Trade and Economic Aspects of Food Security: Evidence from 45 Developing Countries," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-28, August.
    10. Zheng, Tingguo & Ye, Shiqi & Hong, Yongmiao, 2023. "Fast estimation of a large TVP-VAR model with score-driven volatilities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    11. Hauzenberger, Niko, 2021. "Flexible Mixture Priors for Large Time-varying Parameter Models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 87-108.
    12. Xu Gong & Yujing Jin & Chuanwang Sun, 2022. "Time‐varying pure contagion effect between energy and nonenergy commodity markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(10), pages 1960-1986, October.
    13. Jozef Barunik & Michael Ellington, 2020. "Dynamic Network Risk," Papers 2006.04639, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2020.
    14. Hauber, Philipp & Schumacher, Christian, 2021. "Precision-based sampling with missing observations: A factor model application," Discussion Papers 11/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    15. Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Worapree Maneesoonthorn & Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & John Maheu & Didier Nibbering & Anastasios Panagiotelis, 2022. "Bayesian Forecasting in Economics and Finance: A Modern Review," Papers 2212.03471, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    16. Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & John Maheu & Didier Nibbering & Anastasios Panagiotelis, 2023. "Bayesian Forecasting in the 21st Century: A Modern Review," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 1/23, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    17. Joshua Chan, 2023. "BVARs and Stochastic Volatility," Papers 2310.14438, arXiv.org.
    18. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2022. "Asymmetric conjugate priors for large Bayesian VARs," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(3), pages 1145-1169, July.
    19. Florian Huber & Luca Rossini, 2020. "Inference in Bayesian Additive Vector Autoregressive Tree Models," Papers 2006.16333, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
    20. Belomestny, Denis & Krymova, Ekaterina & Polbin, Andrey, 2021. "Bayesian TVP-VARX models with time invariant long-run multipliers," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    21. Lin Liu, 2022. "Economic Uncertainty and Exchange Market Pressure: Evidence From China," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(1), pages 21582440211, January.
    22. Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & James Mitchell, 2022. "Bayesian Modeling of TVP-VARs Using Regression Trees," Papers 2209.11970, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
    23. Mertens, Elmar, 2023. "Precision-based sampling for state space models that have no measurement error," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    24. Zhou, Dong-hai & Liu, Xiao-xing, 2023. "Do world stock markets “jump” together? A measure of high-frequency volatility risk spillover networks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    25. G. Cubadda & S. Grassi & B. Guardabascio, 2022. "The Time-Varying Multivariate Autoregressive Index Model," Papers 2201.07069, arXiv.org.
    26. KANAZAWA, Nobuyuki & 金澤, 伸幸, 2018. "Radial Basis Functions Neural Networks for Nonlinear Time Series Analysis and Time-Varying Effects of Supply Shocks," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-64, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    27. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2022. "Comparing Stochastic Volatility Specifications for Large Bayesian VARs," Papers 2208.13255, arXiv.org.
    28. Li, Shaoyu & Zhu, Chunhui & Shang, Yuhuang, 2023. "Hedging demand and near-zero swap spreads: Evidence from the Chinese interest rate swap market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 170-185.
    29. Simon Beyeler & Sylvia Kaufmann, 2021. "Reduced‐form factor augmented VAR—Exploiting sparsity to include meaningful factors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(7), pages 989-1012, November.
    30. Fischer, Manfred M. & Hauzenberger, Niko & Huber, Florian & Pfarrhofer, Michael, 2022. "General Bayesian time-varying parameter VARs for modeling government bond yields," Working Papers in Regional Science 2021/01, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    31. Hauzenberger, Niko & Huber, Florian & Klieber, Karin, 2023. "Real-time inflation forecasting using non-linear dimension reduction techniques," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 901-921.
    32. Ding, Shusheng & Wang, Kaihao & Cui, Tianxiang & Du, Min, 2023. "The time-varying impact of geopolitical risk on natural resource prices: The post-COVID era evidence," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).
    33. Joshua C.C. Chan & Rodney W. Strachan, 2023. "Bayesian State Space Models In Macroeconometrics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 58-75, February.
    34. Manfred M. Fischer & Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2023. "General Bayesian time‐varying parameter vector autoregressions for modeling government bond yields," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(1), pages 69-87, January.
    35. Jeanne Terblanche & Dawie van Lill & Hylton Hollander, 2023. "Fiscal policy and dimensions of inequality in South Africa: A time-varying coefficient approach," Working Papers 05/2023, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    36. Kenwin Maung, 2021. "Estimating high-dimensional Markov-switching VARs," Papers 2107.12552, arXiv.org.
    37. Manfred M. Fischer & Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2021. "General Bayesian time-varying parameter VARs for predicting government bond yields," Papers 2102.13393, arXiv.org.
    38. Matteo Iacopini & Aubrey Poon & Luca Rossini & Dan Zhu, 2024. "A Quantile Nelson-Siegel model," Papers 2401.09874, arXiv.org.
    39. Song, Ying & Bouri, Elie & Ghosh, Sajal & Kanjilal, Kakali, 2021. "Rare earth and financial markets: Dynamics of return and volatility connectedness around the COVID-19 outbreak," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).

  15. Zhang, Bo & Chan, Joshua C.C. & Cross, Jamie L., 2020. "Stochastic volatility models with ARMA innovations: An application to G7 inflation forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1318-1328.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  16. Chan Joshua C.C. & Fry-McKibbin Renée A. & Hsiao Cody Yu-Ling, 2019. "A regime switching skew-normal model of contagion," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 23(1), pages 1-24, February.

    Cited by:

    1. Roman Matkovskyy & Akanksha Jalan, 2019. "From financial markets to Bitcoin markets: A fresh look at the contagion effect," Post-Print hal-02131637, HAL.
    2. Cody Yu-Ling Hsiao & James Morley, 2015. "Debt and Financial Market Contagion," Discussion Papers 2015-02, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    3. Peterson Owusu Junior & Imhotep Alagidede & George Tweneboah, 2020. "Shape-shift contagion in emerging markets equities: evidence from frequency- and time-domain analysis," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 9(3), pages 146-156.
    4. Yu-Ling Hsiao, Cody & Wei, Xinyang & Sheng, Ni & Shao, Chengwu, 2021. "A joint test of policy contagion with application to the solar sector," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    5. Renée Fry-McKibbin & Cody Yu-Ling Hsiao & Vance L. Martin, 2018. "Measuring financial interdependence in asset returns with an application to euro zone equities," CAMA Working Papers 2018-05, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    6. Hsiao, Cody Yu-Ling & Yang, Rui & Zheng, Xin & Chiu, Yi-Bin, 2023. "Evaluations of policy contagion for new energy vehicle industry in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    7. Goodness C. Aye & Christina Christou & Rangan Gupta & Christis Hassapis, 2021. "High-Frequency Contagion between Aggregate and Regional Housing Markets of the United States with Financial Assets: Evidence from Multichannel Tests," Working Papers 202159, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

  17. Joshua Chan & Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & Rodney W. Strachan, 2018. "Invariant Inference and Efficient Computation in the Static Factor Model," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 113(522), pages 819-828, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  18. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2018. "Specification tests for time-varying parameter models with stochastic volatility," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(8), pages 807-823, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  19. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Eisenstat, Eric, 2018. "Comparing hybrid time-varying parameter VARs," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 1-5.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  20. Joshua C. C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat, 2018. "Bayesian model comparison for time‐varying parameter VARs with stochastic volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(4), pages 509-532, June.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  21. Joshua C.C. Chan & Todd E. Clark & Gary Koop, 2018. "A New Model of Inflation, Trend Inflation, and Long‐Run Inflation Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(1), pages 5-53, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  22. Joshua C.C. Chan & Yong Song, 2018. "Measuring Inflation Expectations Uncertainty Using High‐Frequency Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(6), pages 1139-1166, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  23. Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat, 2017. "Efficient estimation of Bayesian VARMAs with time†varying coefficients," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(7), pages 1277-1297, November.

    Cited by:

    1. Joshua Chan & Luca Benati & Eric Eisenstat & Gary Koop, 2018. "Identifying Noise Shocks," Working Paper Series 41, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    2. Mehmet Balcilar & Edmond Berisha & Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta, 2019. "The Predictive Power of the Term Spread on Inequality in the United Kingdom: An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 201981, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Oguzhan Cepni & David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta & Khuliso Ramabulana, 2020. "Time-Varying Spillover of US Trade War on the Growth of Emerging Economies," Working Papers 202002, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    4. Osman Doğan & Süleyman Taşpınar & Anil K. Bera, 2021. "Bayesian estimation of stochastic tail index from high-frequency financial data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(5), pages 2685-2711, November.

  24. Grant, Angelia L. & Chan, Joshua C.C., 2017. "Reconciling output gaps: Unobserved components model and Hodrick–Prescott filter," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 114-121.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  25. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2017. "The Stochastic Volatility in Mean Model With Time-Varying Parameters: An Application to Inflation Modeling," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 17-28, January.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  26. Angelia L. Grant & Joshua C.C. Chan, 2017. "A Bayesian Model Comparison for Trend‐Cycle Decompositions of Output," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(2-3), pages 525-552, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  27. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Grant, Angelia L., 2016. "Fast computation of the deviance information criterion for latent variable models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 847-859.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  28. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Grant, Angelia L., 2016. "Modeling energy price dynamics: GARCH versus stochastic volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 182-189.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  29. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Eisenstat, Eric & Koop, Gary, 2016. "Large Bayesian VARMAs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 374-390.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  30. Joshua C. C. Chan & Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2016. "A Bounded Model of Time Variation in Trend Inflation, Nairu and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 551-565, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  31. Joshua C. C. Chan & Angelia L. Grant, 2016. "On the Observed-Data Deviance Information Criterion for Volatility Modeling," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(4), pages 772-802.

    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Renhe & Wang, Tong & Qian, Zhiyong & Hu, Shulan, 2023. "A Bayesian estimation approach of random switching exponential smoothing with application to credit forecast," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
    2. Joshua C. C. Chan & Xuewen Yu, 2022. "Fast and Accurate Variational Inference for Large Bayesian VARs with Stochastic Volatility," Papers 2206.08438, arXiv.org.
    3. Nima Nonejad, 2020. "Reproducing the results in “Does the time-consistency problem explain the behavior of inflation in the United States?” using the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(5), pages 2559-2571, November.
    4. Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Chenghan Hou & Gary Koop, 2018. "Composite likelihood methods for large Bayesian VARs with stochastic volatility," CAMA Working Papers 2018-26, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    5. Davide Pettenuzzo & Riccardo Sabbatucci & Allan Timmermann, 2018. "High-frequency Cash Flow Dynamics," Working Papers 120, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
    6. Nima Nonejad, 2019. "Modeling Persistence and Parameter Instability in Historical Crude Oil Price Data Using a Gibbs Sampling Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(4), pages 1687-1710, April.
    7. Liyuan Chen & Paola Zerilli & Christopher F Baum, 2018. "Leverage effects and stochastic volatility in spot oil returns: A Bayesian approach with VaR and CVaR applications," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 953, Boston College Department of Economics.
    8. Drechsel, Thomas & Antolin-Diaz, Juan & Petrella, Ivan, 2023. "Advances in Nowcasting Economic Activity: The Role of Heterogeneous Dynamics and Fat Tails," CEPR Discussion Papers 17800, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Dante A. Urbina & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2023. "Evolution of the effects of mineral commodity prices on fiscal fluctuations: empirical evidence from TVP-VAR-SV models for Peru," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 159(1), pages 153-184, February.
    10. Dominik Bertsche & Robin Braun, 2018. "Identification of Structural Vector Autoregressions by Stochastic Volatility," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2018-03, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    11. Aknouche Abdelhakim & Demmouche Nacer & Dimitrakopoulos Stefanos & Touche Nassim, 2020. "Bayesian analysis of periodic asymmetric power GARCH models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(4), pages 1-24, September.
    12. Jamie L. Cross & Chenghan Hou & Aubrey Poon, 2018. "International Transmission of Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Small Open Economies: An Empirical Approach," Working Papers No 12/2018, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    13. Li, Yong & Yu, Jun & Zeng, Tao, 2018. "Integrated Deviance Information Criterion for Latent Variable Models," Economics and Statistics Working Papers 6-2018, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
    14. Daniel J. Lewis, 2019. "Announcement-Specific Decompositions of Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks and Their Macroeconomic Effects," Staff Reports 891, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    15. Chon, Sora & Kim, Jaeho, 2021. "Does the Financial Leverage Effect Depend on Volatility Regimes?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    16. Martin Iseringhausen, 2018. "The Time-Varying Asymmetry Of Exchange Rate Returns: A Stochastic Volatility – Stochastic Skewness Model," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 18/944, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    17. Baum, Christopher F. & Zerilli, Paola & Chen, Liyuan, 2021. "Stochastic volatility, jumps and leverage in energy and stock markets: Evidence from high frequency data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    18. Wilson Ye Chen & Richard H. Gerlach, 2017. "Semiparametric GARCH via Bayesian model averaging," Papers 1708.07587, arXiv.org.
    19. Si, Deng-Kui & Li, Xiao-Lin & Xu, XuChuan & Fang, Yi, 2021. "The risk spillover effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on energy sector: Evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    20. Chen, Rongda & Bao, Weiwei & Jin, Chenglu, 2021. "Investor sentiment and predictability for volatility on energy futures Markets: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 112-129.
    21. Nonejad, Nima, 2017. "Parameter instability, stochastic volatility and estimation based on simulated likelihood: Evidence from the crude oil market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 388-408.
    22. Florian Huber & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2021. "Dynamic shrinkage in time‐varying parameter stochastic volatility in mean models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(2), pages 262-270, March.
    23. Mário Correia Fernandes & José Carlos Dias & João Pedro Vidal Nunes, 2024. "Performance comparison of alternative stochastic volatility models and its determinants in energy futures: COVID‐19 and Russia–Ukraine conflict features," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(3), pages 343-383, March.
    24. Flavio Pérez Rojo & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2023. "Jane Haldimand Marcet: Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks in the Peruvian Economy Over Time," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2023-523, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    25. George P. Papaioannou & Christos Dikaiakos & Akylas C. Stratigakos & Panos C. Papageorgiou & Konstantinos F. Krommydas, 2019. "Testing the Efficiency of Electricity Markets Using a New Composite Measure Based on Nonlinear TS Tools," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-30, February.
    26. Doğan, Osman, 2023. "Modified harmonic mean method for spatial autoregressive models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    27. Man Chung Fung & Gareth W. Peters & Pavel V. Shevchenko, 2017. "Cohort effects in mortality modelling: a Bayesian state-space approach," Papers 1703.08282, arXiv.org.
    28. Zhongxian Men & Adam W. Kolkiewicz & Tony S. Wirjanto, 2019. "Threshold Stochastic Conditional Duration Model for Financial Transaction Data," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-21, May.
    29. Li, Yong & Yu, Jun & Zeng, Tao, 2020. "Deviance information criterion for latent variable models and misspecified models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 216(2), pages 450-493.
    30. Heejoon Han & Eunhee Lee, 2020. "Triple Regime Stochastic Volatility Model with Threshold and Leverage Effects," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 36, pages 481-509.
    31. Yoshihiro Ohtsuka, 2018. "Large Shocks and the Business Cycle: The Effect of Outlier Adjustments," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 14(1), pages 143-178, April.
    32. Ye Yang & Osman Doğan & Süleyman Taşpınar, 2023. "Observed-data DIC for spatial panel data models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(3), pages 1281-1314, March.
    33. Afees A. Salisu & Ahamuefula Ephraim Ogbonna, 2018. "Does time-variation matter in the stochastic volatility components for G7 stock returns," Working Papers 062, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
    34. Oludare Ariyo & Emmanuel Lesaffre & Geert Verbeke & Martijn Huisman & Martijn Heymans & Jos Twisk, 2022. "Bayesian model selection for multilevel mediation models," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 76(2), pages 219-235, May.
    35. Jean Pierre Fernández Prada Saucedo & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2020. "Modeling the Volatility of Returns on Commodities: An Application and Empirical Comparison of GARCH and SV Models," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2020-484, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    36. Jaeho Kim & Sora Chon, 2022. "Bayesian estimation of the long-run trend of the US economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 461-485, February.
    37. Doğan, Osman & Taşpınar, Süleyman & Bera, Anil K., 2021. "A Bayesian robust chi-squared test for testing simple hypotheses," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(2), pages 933-958.
    38. Oludare Ariyo & Emmanuel Lesaffre & Geert Verbeke & Adrian Quintero, 2022. "Bayesian Model Selection for Longitudinal Count Data," Sankhya B: The Indian Journal of Statistics, Springer;Indian Statistical Institute, vol. 84(2), pages 516-547, November.
    39. Gong, Xiao-Li & Liu, Xi-Hua & Xiong, Xiong & Zhuang, Xin-Tian, 2018. "Modeling volatility dynamics using non-Gaussian stochastic volatility model based on band matrix routine," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 193-201.
    40. Ye Yang & Osman Dogan & Suleyman Taspinar & Fei Jin, 2023. "A Review of Cross-Sectional Matrix Exponential Spatial Models," Papers 2311.14813, arXiv.org.
    41. Daniel J Lewis, 2021. "Identifying Shocks via Time-Varying Volatility [First Order Autoregressive Processes and Strong Mixing]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(6), pages 3086-3124.
    42. Oludare Samuel Ariyo & Matthew Adekunle Adeleke, 2022. "Simultaneous Bayesian modelling of skew-normal longitudinal measurements with non-ignorable dropout," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 303-325, March.
    43. Fedele Greco & Carlo Trivisano, 2018. "Comments on: Some recent work on multivariate Gaussian Markov random fields," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 27(3), pages 549-553, September.
    44. Bruns, Martin, 2021. "Proxy Vector Autoregressions in a Data-rich Environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    45. Osman Doğan & Süleyman Taşpınar & Anil K. Bera, 2021. "Bayesian estimation of stochastic tail index from high-frequency financial data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(5), pages 2685-2711, November.

  32. Eric Eisenstat & Joshua C. C. Chan & Rodney W. Strachan, 2016. "Stochastic Model Specification Search for Time-Varying Parameter VARs," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(8-10), pages 1638-1665, December.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  33. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Grant, Angelia L., 2015. "Pitfalls of estimating the marginal likelihood using the modified harmonic mean," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 29-33.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  34. Joshua C. C. Chan & Justin L. Tobias, 2015. "Priors and Posterior Computation in Linear Endogenous Variable Models with Imperfect Instruments," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(4), pages 650-674, June.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  35. Joshua C. C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat, 2015. "Marginal Likelihood Estimation with the Cross-Entropy Method," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 256-285, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  36. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Koop, Gary, 2014. "Modelling breaks and clusters in the steady states of macroeconomic variables," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 186-193.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  37. Joshua C. C. Chan & Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2013. "A New Model of Trend Inflation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 94-106, January.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  38. Chan, Joshua C.C., 2013. "Moving average stochastic volatility models with application to inflation forecast," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 176(2), pages 162-172.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  39. Joshua C.C. Chan & Gary Koop & Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & Rodney W. Strachan, 2012. "Time Varying Dimension Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 358-367, January.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  40. Joshua Chan & Dirk Kroese, 2011. "Rare-event probability estimation with conditional Monte Carlo," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 189(1), pages 43-61, September.

    Cited by:

    1. Mohamed A. Ayadi & Hatem Ben-Ameur & Nabil Channouf & Quang Khoi Tran, 2019. "NORTA for portfolio credit risk," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 281(1), pages 99-119, October.
    2. Loretta Mastroeni & Giuseppe D'Acquisto & Maurizio Naldi, 2014. "Evaluation of Credit Risk Under Correlated Defaults: The Cross-Entropy Simulation Approach," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0193, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    3. Hansjörg Albrecher & Martin Bladt & Eleni Vatamidou, 2021. "Efficient Simulation of Ruin Probabilities When Claims are Mixtures of Heavy and Light Tails," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 1237-1255, December.
    4. Ping-Chen Chang, 2019. "Reliability estimation for a stochastic production system with finite buffer storage by a simulation approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 277(1), pages 119-133, June.
    5. Hélène Cossette & Etienne Marceau & Quang Huy Nguyen & Christian Y. Robert, 2019. "Tail Approximations for Sums of Dependent Regularly Varying Random Variables Under Archimedean Copula Models," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 461-490, June.
    6. Sak Halis, 2010. "Increasing the number of inner replications of multifactor portfolio credit risk simulation in the t-copula model," Monte Carlo Methods and Applications, De Gruyter, vol. 16(3-4), pages 361-377, January.
    7. Cao, Quoc Dung & Choe, Youngjun, 2019. "Cross-entropy based importance sampling for stochastic simulation models," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).

  41. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Kroese, Dirk P., 2010. "Efficient estimation of large portfolio loss probabilities in t-copula models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 205(2), pages 361-367, September.

    Cited by:

    1. Mohamed A. Ayadi & Hatem Ben-Ameur & Nabil Channouf & Quang Khoi Tran, 2019. "NORTA for portfolio credit risk," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 281(1), pages 99-119, October.
    2. Rongda Chen & Ze Wang & Lean Yu, 2017. "Importance Sampling for Credit Portfolio Risk with Risk Factors Having t-Copula," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 16(04), pages 1101-1124, July.
    3. İsmail Başoğlu & Wolfgang Hörmann & Halis Sak, 2018. "Efficient simulations for a Bernoulli mixture model of portfolio credit risk," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 260(1), pages 113-128, January.
    4. Gong, Xiao-Li & Xiong, Xiong, 2021. "Multi-objective portfolio optimization under tempered stable Lévy distribution with Copula dependence," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    5. Millar, Robert & Li, Hui & Li, Jinglai, 2023. "Multicanonical sequential Monte Carlo sampler for uncertainty quantification," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    6. Scott, Alexandre & Metzler, Adam, 2015. "A general importance sampling algorithm for estimating portfolio loss probabilities in linear factor models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 279-293.
    7. D’Amico, Guglielmo & Petroni, Filippo, 2018. "Copula based multivariate semi-Markov models with applications in high-frequency finance," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 267(2), pages 765-777.
    8. Cheng-Der Fuh & Chuan-Ju Wang, 2017. "Efficient Exponential Tilting for Portfolio Credit Risk," Papers 1711.03744, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2019.
    9. Michael Stanley Smith, 2021. "Implicit Copulas: An Overview," Papers 2109.04718, arXiv.org.
    10. Indranil Ghosh & Dalton Watts & Subrata Chakraborty, 2022. "Modeling Bivariate Dependency in Insurance Data via Copula: A Brief Study," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-20, July.
    11. Smith, Michael Stanley, 2023. "Implicit Copulas: An Overview," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 81-104.
    12. Tang, Qihe & Tong, Zhiwei & Yang, Yang, 2021. "Large portfolio losses in a turbulent market," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 292(2), pages 755-769.
    13. Ali Kadhem, Athraa & Abdul Wahab, Noor Izzri & Aris, Ishak & Jasni, Jasronita & Abdalla, Ahmed N., 2017. "Computational techniques for assessing the reliability and sustainability of electrical power systems: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1175-1186.
    14. Erik Hintz & Marius Hofert & Christiane Lemieux & Yoshihiro Taniguchi, 2022. "Single-Index Importance Sampling with Stratification," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 3049-3073, December.
    15. Joshua C. C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat, 2015. "Marginal Likelihood Estimation with the Cross-Entropy Method," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 256-285, March.
    16. Sunggon Kim & Jisu Yu, 2023. "Stratified importance sampling for a Bernoulli mixture model of portfolio credit risk," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 322(2), pages 819-849, March.
    17. Daniel Dimitrov & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 2023. "Quantifying Systemic Risk in the Presence of Unlisted Banks: Application to the European Banking Sector," Working Papers 768, DNB.
    18. Kakouris, Iakovos & Rustem, Berç, 2014. "Robust portfolio optimization with copulas," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 235(1), pages 28-37.
    19. Adam Metzler & Alexandre Scott, 2020. "Importance Sampling in the Presence of PD-LGD Correlation," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-36, March.
    20. Ferrer, Alex & Casals, José & Sotoca, Sonia, 2016. "Efficient estimation of unconditional capital by Monte Carlo simulation," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 75-84.
    21. Tahani S. Alotaibi & Luciana Dalla Valle & Matthew J. Craven, 2022. "The Worst Case GARCH-Copula CVaR Approach for Portfolio Optimisation: Evidence from Financial Markets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-14, October.
    22. Sahar Abbas & Fahimeh Moosavi, 2012. "Finding shortest path in static networks: using a modified algorithm," International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies, Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 1(1), pages 29-34, January.
    23. Leung, Pui-Lam & Ng, Hon-Yip & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2012. "An improved estimation to make Markowitz’s portfolio optimization theory users friendly and estimation accurate with application on the US stock market investment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 85-95.
    24. Laih, Yih-Wenn, 2014. "Measuring rank correlation coefficients between financial time series: A GARCH-copula based sequence alignment algorithm," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 232(2), pages 375-382.
    25. Tang, Qihe & Tang, Zhaofeng & Yang, Yang, 2019. "Sharp asymptotics for large portfolio losses under extreme risks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 276(2), pages 710-722.
    26. Lützenkirchen, Kristina & Rösch, Daniel & Scheule, Harald, 2014. "Asset portfolio securitizations and cyclicality of regulatory capital," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 237(1), pages 289-302.
    27. Hélène Cossette & Etienne Marceau & Quang Huy Nguyen & Christian Y. Robert, 2019. "Tail Approximations for Sums of Dependent Regularly Varying Random Variables Under Archimedean Copula Models," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 461-490, June.
    28. Fenech, Jean Pierre & Vosgha, Hamed & Shafik, Salwa, 2015. "Loan default correlation using an Archimedean copula approach: A case for recalibration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 340-354.
    29. Bai, Zhidong & Li, Hua & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2013. "The best estimation for high-dimensional Markowitz mean-variance optimization," MPRA Paper 43862, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    30. Tim J. Brereton & Dirk P. Kroese & Joshua C. Chan, 2012. "Monte Carlo Methods for Portfolio Credit Risk," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2012-579, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    31. Balaev, Alexey, 2014. "The copula based on multivariate t-distribution with vector of degrees of freedom," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 90-110.
    32. Wolter, Marcus & Rösch, Daniel, 2014. "Cure events in default prediction," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 238(3), pages 846-857.
    33. Chu, Ba & Knight, John & Satchell, Stephen, 2011. "Large deviations theorems for optimal investment problems with large portfolios," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 211(3), pages 533-555, June.
    34. Gregor Wei{ss} & Marcus Scheffer, 2012. "Smooth Nonparametric Bernstein Vine Copulas," Papers 1210.2043, arXiv.org.

Chapters

  1. Justin L. Tobias & Joshua C. C. Chan, 2019. "An Alternate Parameterization for Bayesian Nonparametric/Semiparametric Regression," Advances in Econometrics, in: Topics in Identification, Limited Dependent Variables, Partial Observability, Experimentation, and Flexible Modeling: Part B, volume 40, pages 47-64, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

    Cited by:

    1. Murat K. Munkin, 2022. "Count Roy model with finite mixtures," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(6), pages 1160-1181, September.

  2. Joshua C. C. Chan & Liana Jacobi & Dan Zhu, 2019. "How Sensitive Are VAR Forecasts to Prior Hyperparameters? An Automated Sensitivity Analysis," Advances in Econometrics, in: Topics in Identification, Limited Dependent Variables, Partial Observability, Experimentation, and Flexible Modeling: Part A, volume 40, pages 229-248, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    See citations under working paper version above.

Books

  1. Chan,Joshua & Koop,Gary & Poirier,Dale J. & Tobias,Justin L., 2019. "Bayesian Econometric Methods," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781108423380, November.

    Cited by:

    1. Haider, Adnan & Khan, Safdar Ullah, 2008. "A Small Open Economy DSGE Model for Pakistan," MPRA Paper 12977, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 Jan 2009.
    2. Qian, Hang, 2012. "Essays on statistical inference with imperfectly observed data," ISU General Staff Papers 201201010800003618, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    3. Richard S. J. Tol & In Chang Hwang & Frédéric Reynès, 2012. "The Effect of Learning on Climate Policy under Fat-tailed Uncertainty," Working Paper Series 5312, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    4. Joshua C. C. Chan & Xuewen Yu, 2022. "Fast and Accurate Variational Inference for Large Bayesian VARs with Stochastic Volatility," Papers 2206.08438, arXiv.org.
    5. Iftekhar Hasan & Roman Horvath & Jan Mares, 2018. "Finance and Wealth Inequality," Working Papers IES 2018/35, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Dec 2018.
    6. Chih-Sheng Hsieh & Michael D. König & Xiaodong Liu & Christian Zimmermann, 2020. "Collaboration in Bipartite Networks, with an Application to Coauthorship Networks," Working Papers 2020-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    7. Martinovici, A., 2019. "Revealing attention - how eye movements predict brand choice and moment of choice," Other publications TiSEM 7dca38a5-9f78-4aee-bd81-c, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    8. Nikolaus Hautsch & Fuyu Yang, 2014. "Bayesian Stochastic Search for the Best Predictors: Nowcasting GDP Growth," University of East Anglia Applied and Financial Economics Working Paper Series 056, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    9. Angelia L. Grant & Joshua C.C. Chan, 2017. "A Bayesian Model Comparison for Trend‐Cycle Decompositions of Output," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(2-3), pages 525-552, March.
    10. Hong Wang & Catherine S. Forbes & Jean-Pierre Fenech & John Vaz, 2018. "The determinants of bank loan recovery rates in good times and bad - new evidence," Papers 1804.07022, arXiv.org.
    11. Li, Mingliang & Tobias, Justin L., 2011. "Bayesian inference in a correlated random coefficients model: Modeling causal effect heterogeneity with an application to heterogeneous returns to schooling," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(2), pages 345-361, June.
    12. Chih-Sheng Hsieh & Michael D. König & Xiaodong Liu & Christian Zimmermann, 2018. "Superstar Economists: Coauthorship networks and research output," Working Papers 2018-28, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    13. Maeng, Kyuho & Jeon, Seung Ryong & Park, Taeho & Cho, Youngsang, 2021. "Network effects of connected and autonomous vehicles in South Korea: A consumer preference approach," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    14. Maria Chiara D'Errico & Carlo Andrea Bollino, 2015. "Bayesian Analysis of Demand Elasticity in the Italian Electricity Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(9), pages 1-22, September.
    15. Francesco Furlanetto & Francesco Ravazzolo & Samad Sarferaz, 2014. "Identification of financial factors in economic fluctuations," KOF Working papers 14-364, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    16. Igari, Ryosuke & Hoshino, Takahiro, 2018. "A Bayesian data combination approach for repeated durations under unobserved missing indicators: Application to interpurchase-timing in marketing," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 150-166.
    17. Odusola, Ayodele & Abidoye, Babatunde, 2015. "Effects of Temperature and Rainfall Shocks on Economic Growth in Africa," UNDP Africa Research Discussion Papers 267028, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
    18. Ishdorj, Ariun, 2008. "Essays on food assistance program participation and demand for food," ISU General Staff Papers 2008010108000016750, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    19. Marcin Błażejowski & Paweł Kufel & Jacek Kwiatkowski, 2020. "Model simplification and variable selection: A replication of the UK inflation model by Hendry (2001)," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(5), pages 645-652, August.
    20. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2010. "Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 3(4), pages 267-358, July.
    21. Adnan Haider & Asad Jan & Kalim Hyder, 2013. "On the (Ir)Relevance of Monetary Aggregate Targeting in Pakistan: An Eclectic View," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 18(2), pages 65-119, July-Dec.
    22. Christopher Moore & Daniel Phaneuf & Walter Thurman, 2011. "A Bayesian Bioeconometric Model of Invasive Species Control: The Case of the Hemlock Woolly Adelgid," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 50(1), pages 1-26, September.
    23. Blazejowski, Marcin & Kwiatkowski, Jacek, 2020. "Bayesian Model Averaging for Autoregressive Distributed Lag (BMA_ADL) in gretl," MPRA Paper 98387, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Liu, De-Chih & Chang, Yu-Chien, 2022. "Systematic variations in exchange rate returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 569-583.
    25. Nikhil Patel, 2016. "International Trade Finance and the Cost Channel of Monetary Policy in Open Economies," BIS Working Papers 539, Bank for International Settlements.
    26. Colson, Gregory & Rousu, Matthew C. & Huffman, Wallace E., 2008. "Consumers' Willingness to Pay for New Genetically Modified Food Products: Evidence from Experimental Auctions of Intragenic and Transgenic Foods," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6407, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    27. Obryan Poyser, 2017. "Exploring the determinants of Bitcoin's price: an application of Bayesian Structural Time Series," Papers 1706.01437, arXiv.org.
    28. Daeseok Han, 2021. "Heterogeneous Deterioration Process and Risk of Deficiencies of Aging Bridges for Transportation Asset Management," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-16, June.
    29. Helmut Herwartz & Christian Ochsner & Hannes Rohloff, 2021. "The Credit Composition of Global Liquidity," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202115, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    30. Joshua C C Chan & Cody Y L Hsiao, 2013. "Estimation of Stochastic Volatility Models with Heavy Tails and Serial Dependence," CAMA Working Papers 2013-74, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    31. Nalan Basturk & Cem Cakmakli & S. Pinar Ceyhan & Herman K. van Dijk, 2014. "On the Rise of Bayesian Econometrics after Cowles Foundation Monographs 10, 14," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-085/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 04 Sep 2014.
    32. Rob Luginbuhl, 2020. "Estimation of the Financial Cycle with a Rank-Reduced Multivariate State-Space Model," CPB Discussion Paper 409, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    33. Du, Xiaodong & Carriquiry, Miguel A., 2013. "Spatiotemporal analysis of ethanol market penetration," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 128-135.
    34. Nalan Basturk & Stefano Grassi & Lennart Hoogerheide & Anne Opschoor & Herman K. van Dijk, 2015. "The R-package MitISEM: Efficient and Robust Simulation Procedures for Bayesian Inference," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-042/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 04 Jul 2017.
    35. Roman Horvath & Marek Rusnak & Katerina Smidkova & Jan Zapal, 2014. "The dissent voting behaviour of central bankers: what do we really know?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(4), pages 450-461, February.
    36. Ahlem DAHEM, 2016. "Short-Term Bayesian Inflation Forecasting For Tunisia: Some Empirical Evidence," EcoForum, "Stefan cel Mare" University of Suceava, Romania, Faculty of Economics and Public Administration - Economy, Business Administration and Tourism Department., vol. 5(1), pages 1-47, January.
    37. Danaf, Mazen & Guevara, Angelo & Atasoy, Bilge & Ben-Akiva, Moshe, 2020. "Endogeneity in adaptive choice contexts: Choice-based recommender systems and adaptive stated preferences surveys," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    38. Gary Koop & Stuart McIntyre & James Mitchell & Aubrey Poon, 2018. "Regional Output Growth in the United Kingdom: More Timely and Higher Frequency Estimates, 1970-2017," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2018-14, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    39. Bin Jiang & Anastasios Panagiotelis & George Athanasopoulos & Rob Hyndman & Farshid Vahid, 2016. "Bayesian Rank Selection in Multivariate Regression," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 6/16, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    40. Badi H. Baltagi & Georges Bresson & Anoop Chaturvedi & Guy Lacroix, 2023. "Robust dynamic space-time panel data models using ?-contamination: An application to crop yields and climate change," CIRANO Working Papers 2023s-01, CIRANO.
    41. Joshua C.C. Chan, 2015. "Specification tests for time-varying parameter models with stochastic volatility," CAMA Working Papers 2015-42, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    42. Luis Uzeda, 2018. "State Correlation and Forecasting: A Bayesian Approach Using Unobserved Components Models," Staff Working Papers 18-14, Bank of Canada.
    43. Marcin Błażejowski & Jacek Kwiatkowski & Paweł Kufel, 2020. "BACE and BMA Variable Selection and Forecasting for UK Money Demand and Inflation with Gretl," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-29, May.
    44. Theo S Eicher & Lindy Helfman & Alex Lenkoski, 2011. "Robust FDI Determinants: Bayesian Model Averaging In The Presence Of Selection Bias," Working Papers UWEC-2011-07-FC, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    45. Obryan Poyser, 2019. "Exploring the dynamics of Bitcoin’s price: a Bayesian structural time series approach," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 9(1), pages 29-60, March.
    46. Shinya Sugawara & Yasuhiro Omori, 2013. "An Econometric Analysis of Insurance Markets with Separate Identification for Moral Hazard and Selection," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-882, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    47. Hakobyana, Zaruhi & Koulovatianos, Christos, 2019. "Populism and polarization in social media without fake news: The vicious circle of biases, beliefs and network homophily," CFS Working Paper Series 626, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    48. Issiaka Coulibaly & Blaise Gnimassoun, 2012. "Optimality of a monetary union : New evidence from exchange rate misalignments in West Africa," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-37, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    49. Kim, Namhoon & Mountain, Travis P., 2018. "Do we consider paid sick leave when deciding to get vaccinated?," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 1-6.
    50. Abidoye, Babatunde O. & Herriges, Joseph A. & Tobias, Justin L., 2010. "Controlling for observed and unobserved site characteristics in RUM models of recreation demand," ISU General Staff Papers 201005250700001115, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    51. Niu, Linlin & Xu, Xiu & Chen, Ying, 2015. "An adaptive approach to forecasting three key macroeconomic variables for transitional China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 12/2015, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    52. Roman Horváth, 2012. "Does Trust Promote Growth?," Working Papers 319, Leibniz Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and Southeast European Studies).
    53. Doğan, Osman & Taşpınar, Süleyman, 2014. "Spatial autoregressive models with unknown heteroskedasticity: A comparison of Bayesian and robust GMM approach," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 1-21.
    54. Knut Are Aastveit & Gisle James Natvik & Sergio Sola, 2013. "Economic uncertainty and the effectiveness of monetary policy," Working Paper 2013/17, Norges Bank.
    55. Wang, Zheqi & Crook, Jonathan & Andreeva, Galina, 2020. "Reducing estimation risk using a Bayesian posterior distribution approach: Application to stress testing mortgage loan default," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 287(2), pages 725-738.
    56. Herriges, Joseph & Kling, Catherine L. & Liu, Chih-Chen & Tobias, Justin, 2010. "What are the consequences of consequentiality?," ISU General Staff Papers 201001010800001561, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    57. S. Standaert, 2013. "Divining the Level of Corruption. A Bayesian State-Space Approach," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 13/835, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    58. Mohammad Arshad Rahman & Angela Vossmeyer, 2019. "Estimation and Applications of Quantile Regression for Binary Longitudinal Data," Advances in Econometrics, in: Topics in Identification, Limited Dependent Variables, Partial Observability, Experimentation, and Flexible Modeling: Part B, volume 40, pages 157-191, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    59. Daeseok Han & Jin-Hyuk Lee & Ki-Tae Park, 2022. "Deterioration Models for Bridge Pavement Materials for a Life Cycle Cost Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-15, September.
    60. Dahem, Ahlem, 2015. "Short term Bayesian inflation forecasting for Tunisia," MPRA Paper 66702, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    61. Thaden, Hauke & Klein, Nadja & Kneib, Thomas, 2019. "Multivariate effect priors in bivariate semiparametric recursive Gaussian models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 51-66.
    62. Chih-Sheng Hsieh & Michael D. König & Xiaodong Liu, 2012. "Network formation with local complements and global substitutes: the case of R&D networks," ECON - Working Papers 217, Department of Economics - University of Zurich, revised Feb 2017.
    63. Brendan Kline & Justin L. Tobias, 2008. "The wages of BMI: Bayesian analysis of a skewed treatment-response model with nonparametric endogeneity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(6), pages 767-793.
    64. Dangl, Thomas & Halling, Michael, 2012. "Predictive regressions with time-varying coefficients," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 157-181.
    65. Joshua C. C. Chan & Liana Jacobi & Dan Zhu, 2019. "An automated prior robustness analysis in Bayesian model comparison," CAMA Working Papers 2019-45, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    66. Li, Phillip, 2011. "Estimation of sample selection models with two selection mechanisms," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 1099-1108, February.
    67. Shinya Sugawara & Yasuhiro Omori, 2017. "An Econometric Analysis of Insurance Markets with Separate Identification for Moral Hazard and Selection Problems," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 50(3), pages 473-502, October.
    68. Badi H. Baltagi & Georges Bresson & Anoop Chaturvedi & Guy Lacroix, 2023. "Robust dynamic space–time panel data models using $$\varepsilon $$ ε -contamination: an application to crop yields and climate change," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(6), pages 2475-2509, June.
    69. C. Glocker & G. Sestieri & P. Towbin, 2017. "Time-varying fiscal spending multipliers in the UK," Working papers 643, Banque de France.
    70. Mengheng Li & Marcel Scharth, 2022. "Leverage, Asymmetry, and Heavy Tails in the High-Dimensional Factor Stochastic Volatility Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 285-301, January.
    71. Bernardi Mauro & Della Corte Giuseppe & Proietti Tommaso, 2011. "Extracting the Cyclical Component in Hours Worked," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(3), pages 1-28, May.
    72. Parley Ruogu Yang, 2021. "Forecasting high-frequency financial time series: an adaptive learning approach with the order book data," Papers 2103.00264, arXiv.org.
    73. Cerrato, Mario & Crosby, John & Kaleem, Muhammad, 2011. "Measuring the Economic Significance of Structural Exchange Rate Models," SIRE Discussion Papers 2011-62, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    74. Saqib Amin & Ruhamah Yousaf & Muhammad Awais Anwar & Noman Arshed, 2022. "Assessing the impact of diversity and ageing population on health expenditure of United States," International Journal of Health Planning and Management, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 913-929, March.
    75. Jiaying Deng & Hossein Ghasemkhani & Yong Tan & Arvind K Tripathi, 2023. "Actions speak louder than words: Imputing users’ reputation from transaction history," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 32(4), pages 1096-1111, April.
    76. Adriana Nikolic & Christoph Weiss, 2014. "Spatial interactions in location decisions: Empirical evidence from a Bayesian spatial probit model," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp177, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    77. David Bounie & Abel François & Waelbroeck Patrick, 2016. "Debit card and demand for cash," Post-Print hal-01533523, HAL.
    78. Damien, Paul & Fuentes-García, Ruth & Mena, Ramsés H. & Zarnikau, Jay, 2019. "Impacts of day-ahead versus real-time market prices on wholesale electricity demand in Texas," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 259-272.
    79. Qian, Hang, 2010. "Linear regression using both temporally aggregated and temporally disaggregated data: Revisited," MPRA Paper 32686, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    80. Colson, Gregory, 2009. "Improving nutrient content through genetic modification: Evidence from experimental auctions on consumer acceptance and willingness to pay for intragenic foods," ISU General Staff Papers 200901010800001872, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    81. Altman, Edward I. & Kalotay, Egon A., 2014. "Ultimate recovery mixtures," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 116-129.
    82. Nataliia Ostapenko, 2022. "Do output gap estimates improve inflation forecasts in Slovakia?," Working and Discussion Papers WP 4/2022, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    83. James R. Bland, 2019. "Measuring and Comparing Two Kinds of Rationalizable Opportunity Cost in Mixture Models," Games, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-27, December.
    84. Yi-Chun (Chad) Ho & Junjie Wu & Yong Tan, 2017. "Disconfirmation Effect on Online Rating Behavior: A Structural Model," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 28(3), pages 626-642, September.
    85. Danaf, Mazen & Guevara, C. Angelo & Ben-Akiva, Moshe, 2023. "A control-function correction for endogeneity in random coefficients models: The case of choice-based recommender systems," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    86. Cross, Jamie & Nguyen, Bao H., 2017. "The relationship between global oil price shocks and China's output: A time-varying analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 79-91.
    87. Xiaodong Du & David A. Hennessy & Cindy L. Yu, 2012. "Testing Day's Conjecture that More Nitrogen Decreases Crop Yield Skewness," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 94(1), pages 225-237.
    88. Abidoye, Babatunde O. & Marlene, Labuschagne, 2012. "The Transmission of World Maize Price to South African Maize Market: A Threshold Cointegration Approach," Working Papers 206515, University of Pretoria, Department of Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Development.
    89. Jed Cohen, Klaus Moeltner, Johannes Reichl and Michael Schmidthaler, 2016. "An Empirical Analysis of Local Opposition to New Transmission Lines Across the EU-27," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
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