IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wsi/serxxx/v51y2006i03ns0217590806002482.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Predicting Us 2001 Recession, Composite Leading Economic Indicators, Structural Change And Monetary Policy

Author

Listed:
  • MEHDI MOSTAGHIMI

    (Economics and Decision Sciences, School of Business, Southern Connecticut State University, 501 Crescent Street, New Haven, CT 06515, USA)

Abstract

In an attempt to predict a peak in the US economy using a classical statistical decision methodology and a Bayesian methodology and using the 1996 revised composite leading economic indicators (CLI), it is learned that the Bayesian models have generally outperformed the classical statistical ones and, among the Bayesian models, the two using two and three consecutive CLI growth rates are superior in reliability and in accuracy. These two models, however, failed to correctly predict the 2001 recession.In investigating the reasons behind their failures, we learned that: (1) if the concurrent data for the economic structure of 1983–1999 are used for the prediction, they have also been able to predict the 2001 recession correctly, but their overall reliability is not as strong as before; (2) given the overwhelming weight of the monetary policy tools in the CLI-1996 design and the combination of the economic and political events in the year 2000, the less than expected effectiveness of the monetary policy since 2001 has contributed to this failure; and (3) a possible structural change in the US economy since 2000 has also contributed to this prediction failure.

Suggested Citation

  • Mehdi Mostaghimi, 2006. "Predicting Us 2001 Recession, Composite Leading Economic Indicators, Structural Change And Monetary Policy," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 51(03), pages 343-363.
  • Handle: RePEc:wsi:serxxx:v:51:y:2006:i:03:n:s0217590806002482
    DOI: 10.1142/S0217590806002482
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S0217590806002482
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1142/S0217590806002482?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. N. Gregory Mankiw, 2001. "U. S. Monetary Policy During the 1990s," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1927, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    2. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2002. "Monetary policy and real stabilization," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 261-312.
    3. R. Jason Faberman, 2004. "Gross Job Flows over the Past Two Business Cycles: Not all 'Recoveries' are Created Equal," Working Papers 372, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Benjamin Born & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2011. "How Should Central Banks Deal with a Financial Stability Objective? The Evolving Role of Communication as a Policy Instrument," Chapters, in: Sylvester Eijffinger & Donato Masciandaro (ed.), Handbook of Central Banking, Financial Regulation and Supervision, chapter 9, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Pelin Ilbas, 2006. "Optimal Monetary Policy rules for the Euro area in a DSGE framework," Working Papers of Department of Economics, Leuven ces0613, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Department of Economics, Leuven.
    3. Berger, Wolfram & Kißmer, Friedrich, 2013. "Central bank independence and financial stability: A tale of perfect harmony?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 109-118.
    4. Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2009. "Uncertainty And Monetary Policy Rules In The United States," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 47(2), pages 206-215, April.
    5. Peter J. Boettke & Alexander W. Salter & Daniel J. Smith, 2018. "Money as meta-rule: Buchanan’s constitutional economics as a foundation for monetary stability," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 176(3), pages 529-555, September.
    6. Ernest Gnan & Claudia Kwapil & Maria Teresa Valderrama, 2018. "Monetary policy after the crisis: mandates, targets, and international linkages," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q2/18, pages 8-33.
    7. Meixing Dai, 2010. "Implications de l’imperfection des marchés financiers pour la politique monétaire," Bulletin de l'Observatoire des politiques économiques en Europe, Observatoire des Politiques Économiques en Europe (OPEE), vol. 22(1), pages 28-35, June.
    8. Sfichi Elena Daniela & Bratiloveanu Alina, 2017. "Correlations between Labor Employment and Economic Growth," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(1), pages 242-247, June.
    9. Edda Claus & Mardi Dungey & Renée Fry, 2008. "Monetary Policy in Illiquid Markets: Options for a Small Open Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 305-336, July.
    10. Demosthenes N. Tambakis, 2007. "Fear of Floating and Social Welfare," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(3), pages 183-204, September.
    11. Kenneth Lewis & Laurence Seidman, 2005. "A Tax Rebate in A Recession: Is It Safe and Effective?," Working Papers 05-20, University of Delaware, Department of Economics.
    12. Lewis, Kenneth A. & Seidman, Laurence S., 2008. "Overcoming the zero interest-rate bound: A quantitative prescription," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 751-760.
    13. Jorge Ponce & Magdalena Tubio, 2010. "Estabilidad financiera: conceptos básicos," Documentos de trabajo 2010004, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    14. Reinout De Bock, 2007. "Investment-Specific Technology Shocks and Labor Market Frictions," Working Paper Research 108, National Bank of Belgium.
    15. Nisticò, Salvatore, 2012. "Monetary policy and stock-price dynamics in a DSGE framework," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 126-146.
    16. Fujita, Shigeru & Ramey, Garey, 2007. "Job matching and propagation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(11), pages 3671-3698, November.
    17. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Ilan Goldfajn & Phil Lowe & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 2006. "Policy Responses to External Shocks: The Experiences of Australia, Brazil, and Chile," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Ricardo Caballero & César Calderón & Luis Felipe Céspedes & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Sc (ed.),External Vulnerability and Preventive Policies, edition 1, volume 10, chapter 5, pages 109-170, Central Bank of Chile.
    18. Frederic S Mishkin, 2004. "Can Central Bank Transparency Go Too Far?," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Christopher Kent & Simon Guttmann (ed.),The Future of Inflation Targeting, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    19. Laurence Ball & Robert R. Tchaidze, 2002. "The Fed and the New Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 108-114, May.
    20. Du, Xiuli & Cheng, Jinfeng & Zhu, Degao & Xing, Mengyue, 2023. "Does central bank communication on financial stability work? ——An empirical study based on Chinese stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 390-407.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wsi:serxxx:v:51:y:2006:i:03:n:s0217590806002482. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tai Tone Lim (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.worldscinet.com/ser/ser.shtml .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.