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Market Driven Power Plant Investment Perspectives In Europe: Climate Policy And Technology Scenarios Until 2050 In The Model Emelie-Esy

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  • A. SCHRÖDER

    (DIW Berlin, Mohrenstr. 58, 10117 Berlin, Germany)

  • T. TRABER

    (DIW Berlin, Mohrenstr. 58, 10117 Berlin, Germany)

  • C. KEMFERT

    (DIW Berlin, Mohrenstr. 58, 10117 Berlin, Germany)

Abstract

In the framework of the Energy Modeling Forum 28, we investigate how climate policy regimes affect market developments under different technology availabilities on the European power markets. We use the partial equilibrium model EMELIE-ESY with focus on electricity markets in order to determine how private investors optimize their generation capacity investment and operation over the horizon 2010 to 2050. For the year 2050, the model projects a minor increase of power consumption of 10% under current climate policy, and a balanced pathway for consumption under ambitious climate policy compared to 2010 levels. These results contrast with findings of POLES and PRIMES models that predict strong consumption increases of 44% to 48% by 2050 and claim competitiveness of nuclear power and CCS options. Under ambitious climate policy, our findings correspond with major increases of wholesale electricity market prices and comparatively less pronounced emission price increases, which trigger no investments into Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and a strongly diminishing share of nuclear energy.

Suggested Citation

  • A. Schröder & T. Traber & C. Kemfert, 2013. "Market Driven Power Plant Investment Perspectives In Europe: Climate Policy And Technology Scenarios Until 2050 In The Model Emelie-Esy," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(supp0), pages 1-22.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ccexxx:v:04:y:2013:i:supp0:n:s2010007813400071
    DOI: 10.1142/S2010007813400071
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thure Traber & Claudia Kemfert, 2012. "German Nuclear Phase-out Policy: Effects on European Electricity Wholesale Prices, Emission Prices, Conventional Power Plant Investments and Eletricity Trade," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1219, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Andreas Schröder & Friedrich Kunz & Jan Meiss & Roman Mendelevitch & Christian von Hirschhausen, 2013. "Current and Prospective Costs of Electricity Generation until 2050," Data Documentation 68, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Traber, Thure & Kemfert, Claudia, 2011. "Refunding ETS proceeds to spur the diffusion of renewable energies: An analysis based on the dynamic oligopolistic electricity market model EMELIE," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 33-41, January.
    4. -, 2011. "The economics of climate change in the Caribbean," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38620, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
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    Cited by:

    1. Franziska Holz & Christian Von Hirschhausen, 2013. "The Infrastructure Implications Of The Energy Transformation In Europe Until 2050 — Lessons From The Emf28 Modeling Exercise," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(supp0), pages 1-26.
    2. Huppmann, Daniel & Egerer, Jonas, 2015. "National-strategic investment in European power transmission capacity," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 247(1), pages 191-203.
    3. Geoffrey J. Blanford & Christoph Weissbart, 2019. "A Framework for Modeling the Dynamics of Power Markets – The EU-REGEN Model," ifo Working Paper Series 307, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    4. Rečka, L. & Ščasný, M., 2016. "Impacts of carbon pricing, brown coal availability and gas cost on Czech energy system up to 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 19-33.
    5. Zeng, Yingying, 2017. "Indirect double regulation and the carbon ETSs linking: The case of coal-fired generation in the EU and China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 268-280.
    6. Lukáš Rečka & Milan Ščasný, 2017. "Impacts of Reclassified Brown Coal Reserves on the Energy System and Deep Decarbonisation Target in the Czech Republic," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-27, November.

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