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Advances on a Decision Analytic Approach to Exposure‐Based Chemical Prioritization

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  • Matthew D. Wood
  • Kenton Plourde
  • Sabrina Larkin
  • Peter P. Egeghy
  • Antony J. Williams
  • Valerie Zemba
  • Igor Linkov
  • Daniel A. Vallero

Abstract

The volume and variety of manufactured chemicals is increasing, although little is known about the risks associated with the frequency and extent of human exposure to most chemicals. The EPA and the recent signing of the Lautenberg Act have both signaled the need for high‐throughput methods to characterize and screen chemicals based on exposure potential, such that more comprehensive toxicity research can be informed. Prior work of Mitchell et al. using multicriteria decision analysis tools to prioritize chemicals for further research is enhanced here, resulting in a high‐level chemical prioritization tool for risk‐based screening. Reliable exposure information is a key gap in currently available engineering analytics to support predictive environmental and health risk assessments. An elicitation with 32 experts informed relative prioritization of risks from chemical properties and human use factors, and the values for each chemical associated with each metric were approximated with data from EPA's CP_CAT database. Three different versions of the model were evaluated using distinct weight profiles, resulting in three different ranked chemical prioritizations with only a small degree of variation across weight profiles. Future work will aim to include greater input from human factors experts and better define qualitative metrics.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew D. Wood & Kenton Plourde & Sabrina Larkin & Peter P. Egeghy & Antony J. Williams & Valerie Zemba & Igor Linkov & Daniel A. Vallero, 2020. "Advances on a Decision Analytic Approach to Exposure‐Based Chemical Prioritization," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(1), pages 83-96, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:40:y:2020:i:1:p:83-96
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.13001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Todd S. Bridges & Daniel Kovacs & Matthew D. Wood & Kelsie Baker & Gordon Butte & Sarah Thorne & Igor Linkov, 2013. "Climate change risk management: a Mental Modeling application," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 376-390, September.
    2. I. Linkov & F. K. Satterstrom & G. Kiker & T. P. Seager & T. Bridges & K. H. Gardner & S. H. Rogers & D. A. Belluck & A. Meyer, 2006. "Multicriteria Decision Analysis: A Comprehensive Decision Approach for Management of Contaminated Sediments," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(1), pages 61-78, February.
    3. Matthew Wood & Daniel Kovacs & Ann Bostrom & Todd Bridges & Igor Linkov, 2012. "Flood Risk Management: US Army Corps of Engineers and Layperson Perceptions," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(8), pages 1349-1368, August.
    4. Bottomley, Paul A. & Doyle, John R., 2001. "A comparison of three weight elicitation methods: good, better, and best," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 553-560, December.
    5. Zachary A. Collier & Benjamin D. Trump & Matthew D. Wood & Rossitsa Chobanova & Igor Linkov, 2016. "Leveraging stakeholder knowledge in the innovation decision making process," International Journal of Business Continuity and Risk Management, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 6(3), pages 163-181.
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    Cited by:

    1. Vicki Bier, 2020. "The Role of Decision Analysis in Risk Analysis: A Retrospective," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(S1), pages 2207-2217, November.

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