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Projections of Future Extreme Weather Losses Under Changes in Climate and Exposure

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  • Laurens M. Bouwer

Abstract

Many attempts are made to assess future changes in extreme weather events due to anthropogenic climate change, but few studies have estimated the potential change in economic losses from such events. Projecting losses is more complex as it requires insight into the change in the weather hazard but also into exposure and vulnerability of assets. This article discusses the issues involved as well as a framework for projecting future losses, and provides an overview of some state‐of‐the‐art projections. Estimates of changes in losses from cyclones and floods are given, and particular attention is paid to the different approaches and assumptions. All projections show increases in extreme weather losses due to climate change. Flood losses are generally projected to increase more rapidly than losses from tropical and extra‐tropical cyclones. However, for the period until the year 2040, the contribution from increasing exposure and value of capital at risk to future losses is likely to be equal or larger than the contribution from anthropogenic climate change. Given the fact that the occurrence of loss events also varies over time due to natural climate variability, the signal from anthropogenic climate change is likely to be lost among the other causes for changes in risk, at least during the period until 2040. More efforts are needed to arrive at a comprehensive approach that includes quantification of changes in hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, as well as adaptation effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Laurens M. Bouwer, 2013. "Projections of Future Extreme Weather Losses Under Changes in Climate and Exposure," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(5), pages 915-930, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:33:y:2013:i:5:p:915-930
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01880.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Jidong Wu & Ying Li & Ning Li & Peijun Shi, 2018. "Development of an Asset Value Map for Disaster Risk Assessment in China by Spatial Disaggregation Using Ancillary Remote Sensing Data," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(1), pages 17-30, January.
    2. Tsavdaroglou, Margarita & Al-Jibouri, Saad H.S. & Bles, Thomas & Halman, Johannes I.M., 2018. "Proposed methodology for risk analysis of interdependent critical infrastructures to extreme weather events," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 57-71.
    3. Belinda Storey & Sally Owen & Christian Zammit & Ilan Noy, 2024. "Insurance retreat in residential properties from future sea level rise in Aotearoa New Zealand," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(3), pages 1-21, March.
    4. Christian L. E. Franzke & Marcin Czupryna, 2020. "Probabilistic assessment and projections of US weather and climate risks and economic damages," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 158(3), pages 503-515, February.
    5. Nathan P. Kettle & John E. Walsh & Lindsey Heaney & Richard L. Thoman & Kyle Redilla & Lynneva Carroll, 2020. "Integrating archival analysis, observational data, and climate projections to assess extreme event impacts in Alaska," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(2), pages 669-687, November.
    6. Tsan‐Ming Choi & James H. Lambert, 2017. "Advances in Risk Analysis with Big Data," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(8), pages 1435-1442, August.
    7. M. Godsoe & M. Ladd & R. Cox, 2019. "Assessing Canada’s disaster baselines and projections under the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction: a modeling tool to track progress," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 98(1), pages 293-317, August.
    8. Daniel Caparros‐Midwood & Stuart Barr & Richard Dawson, 2017. "Spatial Optimization of Future Urban Development with Regards to Climate Risk and Sustainability Objectives," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(11), pages 2164-2181, November.
    9. Jacob Pastor-Paz & Ilan Noy & Isabelle Sin & Abha Sood & David Fleming-Munoz & Sally Owen, 2020. "Projecting the effect of climate change-induced increases in extreme rainfall on residential property damages: A case study from New Zealand," Working Papers 20_02, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    10. Xiao-Chen Yuan & Xun Sun, 2019. "Climate change impacts on socioeconomic damages from weather-related events in China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 99(3), pages 1197-1213, December.
    11. Stephanie E. Chang & Jackie Z. K. Yip & Wendy Tse, 2019. "Effects of urban development on future multi-hazard risk: the case of Vancouver, Canada," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 98(1), pages 251-265, August.
    12. Anna Timonina & Stefan Hochrainer‐Stigler & Georg Pflug & Brenden Jongman & Rodrigo Rojas, 2015. "Structured Coupling of Probability Loss Distributions: Assessing Joint Flood Risk in Multiple River Basins," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(11), pages 2102-2119, November.
    13. Enrico Biffis & Erik Chavez, 2017. "Satellite Data and Machine Learning for Weather Risk Management and Food Security," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(8), pages 1508-1521, August.
    14. He, Pinglin & Zhang, Shuhao & Wang, Lei & Ning, Jing, 2023. "Will environmental taxes help to mitigate climate change? A comparative study based on OECD countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1440-1464.

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