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Can Scrap Save Us From Depletion?

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  • Marian Radetzki
  • Lars E. O. Svensson

Abstract

Old scrap constitutes varied proportions of consumption of different metals. The authors construct a model in which the share of scrap in total supply is explained by three factors, the growth rate in overall demand for the metal; the share of metal contained in scrapped products actually recovered; and the durability of metal containing products. The model is used to study the impact on the share of scrap in total supply from changes in each of the factors. The strongest impact appears to follow from changes in the growth rate of overall demand. Inserting empirical data for copper into their model, the authors suggest, for instance, that in the long run old scrap could satisfy 100 per cent of copper demand, provided that this demand contracted by 1 per cent per year. La ferraille constitue des proportions variées d'utilisation de différents métaux. Les auteurs de cet article ont construit un modèle dans lequel la part de ferraille dans 'approvisionnement total est expliquée par le jeu de trois facteurs: le taux de croissance de la demande globale pour le métal, la part de métal contenue dans des débris de métaux effectivement récupérés et la durabilité des métaux renfermant des produits. Le modèle est utilisé pour étudier les incidences des changements dans chacun des facteurs sur la part de ferraille dans 'offre totale. L'incidence la plus importante semble provenir de modifications dans le taux de croissance de la demande globale. En introduisant des données empiriques pour le cuivre dans leur modèle, les auteurs suggèrent par exemple, qu' à longue échéance, la ferraille pourrait répondre à la demande totale en cuivre pourvu que cette demande se réduise d'un pour cent par année. El uso de chatarra representa una proporción variable del consumo de los diferentes metales. En este artículo los autores presentan un modelo en el que la proción de la chatarra en la oferta de un metal depende de tres factores: la tasa de crecimiento de la demanda global del metal, la proción del metal contenido en la chatarra recuperada, y la durabilidad o vida económica de los productos que contienen el metal en cuestión. El modelo se utiliza para estudiar el impacto sobre la proporción de chatarra en la oferta total causado por las variaciónes de cada uno de estos factores. El mayor impacto parece ocurrir debido al cambio en la tasa de crecimiento de la demands global. Al utilizar el modelo con datos para el cobre, los autores sugieren, por ejemplo, que en el largo plazo la chatarra de cobre podría satisfacer el cien por ciento de la demanda de este metal siempre que dicha demanda se contraigo en uno por ciento por año.

Suggested Citation

  • Marian Radetzki & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1979. "Can Scrap Save Us From Depletion?," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 3(4), pages 365-378, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:natres:v:3:y:1979:i:4:p:365-378
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1477-8947.1979.tb00427.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Banks, F. E., 1977. "Natural resource availability : Some economic aspects," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 2-12, March.
    2. Nordhaus, William D, 1974. "Resources as a Constraint on Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(2), pages 22-26, May.
    3. Radetzki, Marian, 1975. "Metal mineral resource exhaustion and the threat to material progress: The case of copper," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 3(2-3), pages 123-136.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marian Radetzki, 1983. "Long‐run Price Prospects for Aluminium and Copper," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 7(1), pages 23-36, January.

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