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Unemployment Insurance In Survey And Administrative Data

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  • Jeff Larrimore
  • Jacob Mortenson
  • David Splinter

Abstract

Unemployment Insurance (UI) benefits were a central part of the social safety net during the COVID‐19 recession. UI benefits, however, are severely understated in surveys. Using administrative tax data, we find that over half of UI benefits were missed in major survey data, with a greater understatement among low‐income workers. As a result, 2020 official poverty rates were overstated by about 2 percentage points, and corrected poverty reached a six‐decade low. We provide data to correct underreporting in surveys and show that, compared to UI benefits, the UI exclusion tax expenditure was less targeted at low incomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeff Larrimore & Jacob Mortenson & David Splinter, 2023. "Unemployment Insurance In Survey And Administrative Data," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 571-579, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jpamgt:v:42:y:2023:i:2:p:571-579
    DOI: 10.1002/pam.22463
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bruce D. Meyer & Nikolas Mittag, 2019. "Using Linked Survey and Administrative Data to Better Measure Income: Implications for Poverty, Program Effectiveness, and Holes in the Safety Net," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 176-204, April.
    2. Larrimore, Jeff & Mortenson, Jacob & Splinter, David, 2022. "Earnings shocks and stabilization during COVID-19," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    3. Jeff Larrimore & Jacob Mortenson & David Splinter, 2021. "Household Incomes in Tax Data: Using Addresses to Move from Tax-Unit to Household Income Distributions," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 56(2), pages 600-631.
    4. Bilal Habib, 2018. "How CBO Adjusts for Survey Underreporting of Transfer Income in Its Distributional Analyses: Working Paper 2018-07," Working Papers 54234, Congressional Budget Office.
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    1. Larrimore, Jeff & Mortenson, Jacob & Splinter, David, 2023. "Earnings business cycles: The Covid recession, recovery, and policy response," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    2. Kevin C. Corinth & Jeff Larrimore, 2024. "Has Intergenerational Progress Stalled? Income Growth Over Five Generations of Americans," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-007, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Andreas Hornstein & Marios Karabarbounis & Andre Kurmann & Etienne Lale & Lien Ta, 2023. "Disincentive Effects of Unemployment Insurance Benefits," Working Paper 23-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    4. Jonathan Heathcote & Fabrizio Perri & Giovanni Violante & Lichen Zhang, 2023. "More Unequal We Stand? Inequality Dynamics in the United States, 1967–2021," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 50, pages 235-266, October.
    5. Jeehoon Han & Bruce D. Meyer & James X. Sullivan, 2022. "Real-Time Poverty, Material Well-Being, and the Child Tax Credit," National Tax Journal, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(4), pages 817-846.
    6. Corinth, Kevin & Larrimore, Jeff, 2024. "Has Intergenerational Progress Stalled? Income Growth over Five Generations of Americans," IZA Discussion Papers 16807, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Adam Bee & Joshua Mitchell & Nikolas Mittag & Jonathan Rothbaum & Carl Sanders & Lawrence Schmidt & Matthew Unrath, 2023. "National Experimental Wellbeing Statistics - Version 1," Working Papers 23-04, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.

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