IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jfutmk/v44y2024i4p605-618.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Price discovery and long‐memory property: Simulation and empirical evidence from the bitcoin market

Author

Listed:
  • Ke Xu
  • Yu‐Lun Chen
  • Bo Liu
  • Jian Chen

Abstract

Price discovery studies of a single asset traded in multiple markets have traditionally focused on assessing the relative price discovery contribution of each market. However, in this paper, we demonstrate that the overall price discovery across all markets can undergo changes even when the relative price discovery of each market remains constant. We propose that this overall change in price discovery can be effectively captured by the fractional parameter in the fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive (FCVAR) model. In contrast, the widely used cointegrated vector autoregressive (CVAR) model fails to account for this dynamic in overall price discovery. Through a combination of simulation exercises and empirical applications, we show that the FCVAR approach outperforms the CVAR model not only in evaluating the relative price discovery contributions but also, more importantly, in providing a comprehensive measurement of overall price discovery.

Suggested Citation

  • Ke Xu & Yu‐Lun Chen & Bo Liu & Jian Chen, 2024. "Price discovery and long‐memory property: Simulation and empirical evidence from the bitcoin market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(4), pages 605-618, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:44:y:2024:i:4:p:605-618
    DOI: 10.1002/fut.22484
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/fut.22484
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/fut.22484?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Søren Johansen & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2012. "Likelihood Inference for a Fractionally Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(6), pages 2667-2732, November.
    2. Yu‐Lun Chen & Yin‐Feng Gau, 2009. "Tick sizes and relative rates of price discovery in stock, futures, and options markets: Evidence from the Taiwan stock exchange," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 74-93, January.
    3. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1994. "Cointegration, Fractional Cointegration, and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(2), pages 737-745, June.
    4. Sepideh Dolatabadi & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen & Ke Xu, 2015. "A Fractionally Cointegrated VAR Analysis of Price Discovery in Commodity Futures Markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(4), pages 339-356, April.
    5. Andreas Noack Jensen & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2014. "A Fast Fractional Difference Algorithm," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(5), pages 428-436, August.
    6. Kapar, Burcu & Olmo, Jose, 2019. "An analysis of price discovery between Bitcoin futures and spot markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 62-64.
    7. Søren Johansen & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2019. "Nonstationary Cointegration in the Fractionally Cointegrated VAR Model," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(4), pages 519-543, July.
    8. Sepideh Dolatabadi & Paresh Kumar Narayan & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen & Ke Xu, 2018. "Economic significance of commodity return forecasts from the fractionally cointegrated VAR model," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 219-242, February.
    9. Jinghong Wu & Ke Xu & Xinwei Zheng & Jian Chen, 2021. "Fractional cointegration in bitcoin spot and futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(9), pages 1478-1494, September.
    10. Johansen, Søren & Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard, 2016. "The Role Of Initial Values In Conditional Sum-Of-Squares Estimation Of Nonstationary Fractional Time Series Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(5), pages 1095-1139, October.
    11. Dolatabadi, Sepideh & Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard & Xu, Ke, 2016. "A fractionally cointegrated VAR model with deterministic trends and application to commodity futures markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 623-639.
    12. Johansen, SØren, 2008. "A Representation Theory For A Class Of Vector Autoregressive Models For Fractional Processes," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(3), pages 651-676, June.
    13. Brauneis, Alexander & Mestel, Roland, 2018. "Price discovery of cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin and beyond," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 58-61.
    14. Tóth, Bence & Palit, Imon & Lillo, Fabrizio & Farmer, J. Doyne, 2015. "Why is equity order flow so persistent?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 218-239.
    15. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    16. Yu‐Lun Chen & Yen‐Hsien Lee & Robin K. Chou & Ya‐Kai Chang, 2021. "Arbitrage trading and price discovery of the regular and mini Taiwan stock index futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(6), pages 926-948, June.
    17. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1995. "One Security, Many Markets: Determining the Contributions to Price Discovery," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1175-1199, September.
    18. Wen‐liang Gideon Hsieh, 2004. "Regulatory changes and information competition: The case of Taiwan index futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 399-412, April.
    19. Hasbrouck, Joel, 2002. "Stalking the "efficient price" in market microstructure specifications: an overview," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 329-339, July.
    20. Chen, Yu-Lun & Xu, Ke, 2021. "The impact of RMB’s SDR inclusion on price discovery in onshore-offshore markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    21. Blake LeBaron & Ryuichi Yamamoto, 2008. "The Impact of Imitation on Long Memory in an Order-Driven Market," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 34(4), pages 504-517.
    22. Brandvold, Morten & Molnár, Peter & Vagstad, Kristian & Andreas Valstad, Ole Christian, 2015. "Price discovery on Bitcoin exchanges," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 18-35.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jinghong Wu & Ke Xu & Xinwei Zheng & Jian Chen, 2021. "Fractional cointegration in bitcoin spot and futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(9), pages 1478-1494, September.
    2. Javier Hualde & Morten {O}rregaard Nielsen, 2022. "Fractional integration and cointegration," Papers 2211.10235, arXiv.org.
    3. Yan, Meng & Chen, Jian & Song, Victor & Xu, Ke, 2022. "Trade friction and price discovery in the USD–CAD spot and forward markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    4. Chen, Yu-Lun & Xu, Ke, 2021. "The impact of RMB’s SDR inclusion on price discovery in onshore-offshore markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    5. Xu, Ke & Chen, Yu-Lun & Yang, J. Jimmy, 2023. "Market uncertainty, persistent arbitrage-free violation, and price discovery in RMB market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    6. Sepideh Dolatabadi & Paresh Kumar Narayan & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen & Ke Xu, 2018. "Economic significance of commodity return forecasts from the fractionally cointegrated VAR model," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 219-242, February.
    7. Federico Carlini & Paolo Santucci de Magistris, 2019. "Resuscitating the co-fractional model of Granger (1986)," Discussion Papers 19/01, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
    8. Sepideh Dolatabadi & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen & Ke Xu, 2015. "A Fractionally Cointegrated VAR Analysis of Price Discovery in Commodity Futures Markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(4), pages 339-356, April.
    9. Alexander Boca Saravia & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2022. "Presidential approval in Peru: an empirical analysis using a fractionally cointegrated VAR," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1973-2010, August.
    10. Federico Carlini & Paolo Santucci de Magistris, 2019. "Resuscitating the co-fractional model of Granger (1986)," CREATES Research Papers 2019-02, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    11. Bravo Caro, José Manuel & Golpe, Antonio A. & Iglesias, Jesús & Vides, José Carlos, 2020. "A new way of measuring the WTI – Brent spread. Globalization, shock persistence and common trends," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    12. Morten Ørregaard Nielsen & Sergei S. Shibaev, 2015. "Forecasting daily political opinion polls using the fractionally cointegrated VAR model," Working Paper 1340, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    13. Nikolaos Stoupos & Apostolos Kiohos, 2022. "Euro Area: Towards a European Common Bond? – Empirical Evidence from the Sovereign Debt Markets," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 1019-1046, July.
    14. Morten Ø. Nielsen & Michal Ksawery Popiel, 2018. "A Matlab Program And User's Guide For The Fractionally Cointegrated Var Model," Working Paper 1330, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    15. Quineche Ricardo, 2021. "Consumption, Aggregate Wealth and Expected Stock Returns: An FCVAR Approach," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 21-42, January.
    16. Narayan, Seema & Smyth, Russell, 2015. "The financial econometrics of price discovery and predictability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 380-393.
    17. Xu, Ke & Stewart, Kenneth G. & Cao, Zeyang, 2022. "Fractional cointegration and price discovery in Canadian commodities," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    18. Yu‐Lun Chen & J. Jimmy Yang, 2024. "Time‐varying price discovery in regular and microbitcoin futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(1), pages 103-121, January.
    19. Søren Johansen & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2019. "Nonstationary Cointegration in the Fractionally Cointegrated VAR Model," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(4), pages 519-543, July.
    20. Søren Johansen & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2018. "Testing the CVAR in the Fractional CVAR Model," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(6), pages 836-849, November.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:44:y:2024:i:4:p:605-618. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0270-7314/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.